Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling

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List of Papers (Total 543)

Forecasting infectious disease emergence subject to seasonal forcing

Despite high vaccination coverage, many childhood infections pose a growing threat to human populations. Accurate disease forecasting would be of tremendous value to public health. Forecasting disease emergence using early warning signals (EWS) is possible in non-seasonal models of infectious diseases. Here, we assessed whether EWS also anticipate disease emergence in seasonal ...

Test-and-treat approach to HIV/AIDS: a primer for mathematical modeling

The public benefit of test-and-treat has induced a need to justify goodness for the public, and mathematical modeling studies have played a key role in designing and evaluating the test-and-treat strategy for controlling HIV/AIDS. Here we briefly and comprehensively review the essence of contemporary understanding of the test-and-treat policy through mathematical modeling ...

Theory of synergistic effects: Hill-type response surfaces as ‘null-interaction’ models for mixtures

The classification of effects caused by mixtures of agents as synergistic, antagonistic or additive depends critically on the reference model of ‘null interaction’. Two main approaches are currently in use, the Additive Dose (ADM) or concentration addition (CA) and the Multiplicative Survival (MSM) or independent action (IA) models. We compare several response surface models to a ...

Transmission dynamics of cholera in Yemen, 2017: a real time forecasting

A large epidemic of cholera, caused by Vibrio cholerae, serotype Ogawa, has been ongoing in Yemen, 2017. To improve the situation awareness, the present study aimed to forecast the cholera epidemic, explicitly addressing the reporting delay and ascertainment bias. Using weekly incidence of suspected cases, updated as a revised epidemic curve every week, the reporting delay was ...

Modelling infectious diseases with relapse: a case study of HSV-2

Herpes Simplex Virus Type 2 (HSV-2) is one of the most common sexually transmitted diseases. Although there is still no licensed vaccine for HSV-2, a theoretical investigation of the potential effects of a vaccine is considered important and has recently been conducted by several researchers. Although compartmental mathematical models were considered for each special case in the ...

Estimating the subcritical transmissibility of the Zika outbreak in the State of Florida, USA, 2016

Background Florida State has reported autochthonous transmission of Zika virus since late July 2016. Here we assessed the transmissibility associated with the outbreak and generated a short-term forecast. Methods Time-dependent dynamics of imported cases reported in the state of Florida was approximated by a logistic growth equation. We estimated the reproduction number using the ...

Feed-forward neural network model for hunger and satiety related VAS score prediction

Background An artificial neural network approach was chosen to model the outcome of the complex signaling pathways in the gastro-intestinal tract and other peripheral organs that eventually produce the satiety feeling in the brain upon feeding. Methods A multilayer feed-forward neural network was trained with sets of experimental data relating concentration-time courses of plasma ...

Long range physical cell-to-cell signalling via mitochondria inside membrane nanotubes: a hypothesis

Coordinated interaction of single cells by cell-to-cell communication (signalling) enables complex behaviour necessary for the functioning of multicellular organisms. A quite newly discovered cell-to-cell signalling mechanism relies on nanotubular cell-co-cell connections, termed “membrane nanotubes” (MNTs). The present paper presents the hypothesis that mitochondria inside MNTs ...

Application of the backstepping method to the prediction of increase or decrease of infected population

Background In mathematical epidemiology, age-structured epidemic models have usually been formulated as the boundary-value problems of the partial differential equations. On the other hand, in engineering, the backstepping method has recently been developed and widely studied by many authors. Methods Using the backstepping method, we obtained a boundary feedback control which plays ...

Epidemic cycling in a multi-strain SIRS epidemic network model

Background One common observation in infectious diseases caused by multi-strain pathogens is that both the incidence of all infections and the relative fraction of infection with each strain oscillate with time (i.e., so-called Epidemic cycling). Many different mechanisms have been proposed for the pervasive nature of epidemic cycling. Nevertheless, the two facts that people ...

Random walk of passive tracers among randomly moving obstacles

Background This study is mainly motivated by the need of understanding how the diffusion behavior of a biomolecule (or even of a larger object) is affected by other moving macromolecules, organelles, and so on, inside a living cell, whence the possibility of understanding whether or not a randomly walking biomolecule is also subject to a long-range force field driving it to its ...

Assessing potential countermeasures against the dengue epidemic in non-tropical urban cities

Background Dengue is a common mosquito-borne viral disease epidemic especially in tropical and sub-tropical regions where water sanitation is not substantially controlled. However, dengue epidemics sometimes occur in non-tropical urban cities with substantial water sanitary control. Using a mathematical model, we investigate what conditions can be important for a dengue epidemic to ...

The organelle of differentiation in embryos: the cell state splitter

The cell state splitter is a membraneless organelle at the apical end of each epithelial cell in a developing embryo. It consists of a microfilament ring and an intermediate filament ring subtending a microtubule mat. The microtubules and microfilament ring are in mechanical opposition as in a tensegrity structure. The cell state splitter is bistable, perturbations causing it to ...

Modeling immune response and its effect on infectious disease outbreak dynamics

Background In recent epidemiological models, immunity is incorporated as a simplified value that determines the capacity of an individual to become infected or to transmit the disease. Moreover, the quality of the immune response determines the chances of infection and the length of time an individual is capable to infect others. We present a model that incorporates individuals’ ...

A physiologically-based flow network model for hepatic drug elimination III: 2D/3D DLA lobule models

Background One of the major issues in current pharmaceutical development is potential hepatotoxicity and drug-induced liver damage. This is due to the unique metabolic processes performed in the liver to prevent accumulation of a wide range of chemicals in the blood. Recently, we developed a physiologically-based lattice model to address the transport and metabolism of drugs in the ...

Modeling glucose and free fatty acid kinetics in glucose and meal tolerance test

Background Quantitative evaluation of insulin regulation on plasma glucose and free fatty acid (FFA) in response to external glucose challenge is clinically important to assess the development of insulin resistance (World J Diabetes 1:36–47, 2010). Mathematical minimal models (MMs) based on insulin modified frequently-sampled intravenous glucose tolerance tests (IM-FSIGT) are ...

Toward precision medicine of breast cancer

In this review, we report on breast cancer’s molecular features and on how high throughput technologies are helping in understanding the dynamics of tumorigenesis and cancer progression with the aim of developing precision medicine methods. We first address the current state of the art in breast cancer therapies and challenges in order to progress towards its cure. Then, we show ...

A mathematical model of tumor growth and its response to single irradiation

Background Mathematical modeling of biological processes is widely used to enhance quantitative understanding of bio-medical phenomena. This quantitative knowledge can be applied in both clinical and experimental settings. Recently, many investigators began studying mathematical models of tumor response to radiation therapy. We developed a simple mathematical model to simulate the ...

A group matrix representation relevant to scales of measurement of clinical disease states via stratified vectors

Background Previously, we applied basic group theory and related concepts to scales of measurement of clinical disease states and clinical findings (including laboratory data). To gain a more concrete comprehension, we here apply the concept of matrix representation, which was not explicitly exploited in our previous work. Methods Starting with a set of orthonormal vectors, called ...

A cell-centered, agent-based framework that enables flexible environment granularities

Background Mechanistic explanations of cell-level phenomena typically adopt an observer perspective. Explanations developed from a cell’s perspective may offer new insights. Agent-based models lend themselves to model from an individual perspective, and existing agent-based models generally utilize a regular lattice-based environment. A framework which utilizes a cell’s perspective ...

Simulation and qualitative analysis of glucose variability, mean glucose, and hypoglycemia after subcutaneous insulin therapy for stress hyperglycemia

Background The critically ill can have persistent dysglycemia during the “subacute” recovery phase of their illness because of altered gene expression; it is also not uncommon for these patients to receive continuous enteral nutrition during this time. The optimal short-acting subcutaneous insulin therapy that should be used in this clinical scenario, however, is unknown. Our aim ...

Extracting DNA words based on the sequence features: non-uniform distribution and integrity

Background DNA sequence can be viewed as an unknown language with words as its functional units. Given that most sequence alignment algorithms such as the motif discovery algorithms depend on the quality of background information about sequences, it is necessary to develop an ab initio algorithm for extracting the “words” based only on the DNA sequences. Methods We considered that ...

Numerical simulations of multicomponent ecological models with adaptive methods

Background The study of dynamic relationship between a multi-species models has gained a huge amount of scientific interest over the years and will continue to maintain its dominance in both ecology and mathematical ecology in the years to come due to its practical relevance and universal existence. Some of its emergence phenomena include spatiotemporal patterns, oscillating ...

The effect of parameter variability in the allometric projection of leaf growth rates for eelgrass (Zostera marina L.) II: the importance of data quality control procedures in bias reduction

Background Eelgrass grants important ecological benefits including a nursery for waterfowl and fish species, shoreline stabilization, nutrient recycling and carbon sequestration. Upon the exacerbation of deleterious anthropogenic influences, re-establishment of eelgrass beds has mainly depended on transplantation. Productivity estimations provide valuable information for the ...