Climate Dynamics

http://link.springer.com/journal/382

List of Papers (Total 697)

A comprehensive analysis of coherent rainfall patterns in China and potential drivers. Part II: intraseasonal variability

The causes of subseasonal precipitation variability in China are investigated using observations and reanalysis data for extended winter (November–April) and summer (May–October) seasons from 1982 to 2007. For each season, the three dominant regions of coherent intraseasonal variability are identified with Empirical Orthogonal Teleconnection (EOT) analysis. While previous studies ...

Causes of the large warm bias in the Angola–Benguela Frontal Zone in the Norwegian Earth System Model

We have investigated the causes of the sea surface temperature (SST) bias in the Angola–Benguela Frontal Zone (ABFZ) of the southeastern Atlantic Ocean simulated by the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM). Similar to other coupled-models, NorESM has a warm SST bias in the ABFZ of up to 8 °C in the annual mean. Our analysis of NorESM reveals that a cyclonic surface wind bias over ...

An extreme negative Indian Ocean Dipole event in 2016: dynamics and predictability

During 2016 boreal summer and fall, a strong negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event occurred, which led to large climate impacts such as the drought over East Africa. In this study, efforts are made to understand the dynamics of this IOD event and to evaluate real-time IOD predictions from current operational seasonal forecast systems. We show that both the wind-evaporation-SST ...

Pacific-North American teleconnection and North Pacific Oscillation: historical simulation and future projection in CMIP5 models

Based on reanalysis datasets and as many as 35 CMIP5 models, this study evaluates the capability of climate models to simulate the spatiotemporal features of Pacific-North American teleconnection (PNA) and North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) in the twentieth century wintertime, and further investigates their responses to greenhouse warming in the twenty-first century. Analysis reveals ...

Sensitivity of extreme precipitation to temperature: the variability of scaling factors from a regional to local perspective

Potential increases in extreme rainfall induced hazards in a warming climate have motivated studies to link precipitation intensities to temperature. Increases exceeding the Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) rate of 6–7%/°C–1 are seen in short-duration, convective, high-percentile rainfall at mid latitudes, but the rates of change cease or revert at regionally variable threshold temperatures ...

A comprehensive analysis of coherent rainfall patterns in China and potential drivers. Part I: Interannual variability

Interannual rainfall variability in China affects agriculture, infrastructure and water resource management. To improve its understanding and prediction, many studies have associated precipitation variability with particular causes for specific seasons and regions. Here, a consistent and objective method, Empirical Orthogonal Teleconnection (EOT) analysis, is applied to 1951–2007 ...

Seasonal dependence of the predictable low-level circulation patterns over the tropical Indo-Pacific domain

The seasonal dependence of the prediction skill of 850-hPa monthly zonal wind over the tropical Indo-Pacific domain is examined using the ensemble reforecasts for 1983–2010 from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis and Reforecast (CFSRR) project. According to a maximum signal-to-noise empirical orthogonal function analysis, the ...

Internal atmospheric noise characteristics in twentieth century coupled atmosphere–ocean model simulations

The statistical characteristics of the atmospheric internal variability (hereafter internal atmospheric noise) for surface pressure (PS) in twentieth century simulations of a coupled general circulation model are documented. The atmospheric noise is determined from daily post-industrial (1871–1998) Community Climate System Model 3 simulations by removing the SST and externally ...

Impact of tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperature biases on the simulated atmospheric circulation and precipitation over the Atlantic region: An ECHAM6 model study

As many coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models, the coupled Earth System Model developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology suffers from severe sea-surface temperature (SST) biases in the tropical Atlantic. We performed a set of SST sensitivity experiments with its atmospheric model component ECHAM6 to understand the impact of tropical Atlantic SST biases on ...

Impacts of aerosol–monsoon interaction on rainfall and circulation over Northern India and the Himalaya Foothills

The boreal summer of 2008 was unusual for the Indian monsoon, featuring exceptional heavy loading of dust aerosols over the Arabian Sea and northern-central India, near normal all-India rainfall, but excessive heavy rain, causing disastrous flooding in the Northern Indian Himalaya Foothills (NIHF) regions, accompanied by persistent drought conditions in central and southern India. ...

The El Niño effect on Ethiopian summer rainfall

While El Niño is known to cause failure of Kiremt (boreal summer) rainfall in Ethiopia, the mechanisms are not fully understood. Here we use the ECHAM5 Atmospheric General Circulation Model to investigate the physical link between Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and Kiremt rainfall. We compare ECHAM5 simulations forced with reconstructed SST data, to gauge-based ...

Synoptic-scale circulation patterns during summer derived from tree rings in mid-latitude Asia

Understanding past and recent climate and atmospheric circulation variability is vital for regions that are affected by climate extremes. In mid-latitude Asia, however, the synoptic climatology is complex and not yet fully understood. The aim of this study was to investigate dominant synoptic-scale circulation patterns during the summer season using a multi-species tree-ring width ...

Seasonal and decadal forecasts of Atlantic Sea surface temperatures using a linear inverse model

Predictability of Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperatures (SST) on seasonal and decadal timescales is investigated using a suite of statistical linear inverse models (LIM). Observed monthly SST anomalies in the Atlantic sector (between 22\(^{\circ }\)S and 66\(^{\circ }\)N) are used to construct the LIMs for seasonal and decadal prediction. The forecast skills of the LIMs are then ...

Climate model forecast biases assessed with a perturbed physics ensemble

Perturbed physics ensembles have often been used to analyse long-timescale climate model behaviour, but have been used less often to study model processes on shorter timescales. We combine a transient perturbed physics ensemble with a set of initialised forecasts to deduce regional process errors present in the standard HadCM3 model, which cause the model to drift in the early ...

Contributions of soil moisture interactions to future precipitation changes in the GLACE-CMIP5 experiment

Changes in soil moisture are likely to contribute to future changes in latent heat flux and various characteristics of daily precipitation. Such contributions during the second half of the twenty-first century are assessed using the simulations from the GLACE-CMIP5 experiment, applying a linear regression analysis to determine the magnitude of these contributions. As ...

Maximum covariance analysis to identify intraseasonal oscillations over tropical Brazil

A reliable prognosis of extreme precipitation events in the tropics is arguably challenging to obtain due to the interaction of meteorological systems at various time scales. A pivotal component of the global climate variability is the so-called intraseasonal oscillations, phenomena that occur between 20 and 100 days. The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), which is directly related ...

Roles of energy conservation and climate feedback in Bjerknes compensation: a coupled modeling study

The roles of energy balance and climate feedback in Bjerknes compensation (BJC) are studied through wind-perturbation experiments in a coupled climate model. Shutting down surface winds over the ocean causes significant reductions in both wind-driven and thermohaline overturning circulations, leading to a remarkable decrease in poleward ocean heat transport (OHT). The sea surface ...

Wind speed variability over the Canary Islands, 1948–2014: focusing on trend differences at the land–ocean interface and below–above the trade-wind inversion layer

This study simultaneously examines wind speed trends at the land–ocean interface, and below–above the trade-wind inversion layer in the Canary Islands and the surrounding Eastern North Atlantic Ocean: a key region for quantifying the variability of trade-winds and its response to large-scale atmospheric circulation changes. Two homogenized data sources are used: (1) observed wind ...

Why 1986 El Niño and 2005 La Niña evolved different from a typical El Niño and La Niña

1986 El Niño (EN) and 2005 La Niña (LN) experienced distinctive evolution features compared to the typical EN and LN events. The 1986 EN persisted for more than 2 years, whereas the 2005 LN transitioned into a warm episode in the following winter. The physical mechanisms that caused the distinctive evolution features are investigated through an oceanic mixed-layer heat budget ...