Climate Dynamics

http://link.springer.com/journal/382

List of Papers (Total 778)

Climate modeling over the Mediterranean Sea: impact of resolution and ocean coupling

Feedback between the Mediterranean Sea and the atmosphere on various temporal and spatial scales plays a major role in the regional climate system. We studied the impact of horizontal atmospheric grid resolution (grid-spacing of ~9 vs. ~50 km) and dynamic ocean coupling (the ocean model NEMOMED12) in simulations with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM. The evaluation focused on...

Assessment of an ensemble of ocean–atmosphere coupled and uncoupled regional climate models to reproduce the climatology of Mediterranean cyclones

This study aims to assess the skill of regional climate models (RCMs) at reproducing the climatology of Mediterranean cyclones. Seven RCMs are considered, five of which were also coupled with an oceanic model. All simulations were forced at the lateral boundaries by the ERA-Interim reanalysis for a common 20-year period (1989–2008). Six different cyclone tracking methods have...

Impact of the internal variability on the cyclone tracks simulated by a regional climate model over the Med-CORDEX domain

Regional climate models (RCMs) constitute a powerful tool to study and understand climate variability and change at local scales. Nevertheless, to correctly interpret regional climate simulations, a number of uncertainties need to be considered. In this study, we investigate the so-called Internal Variability (IV) of an RCM. The IV can be defined as the degree of...

Long term evolution of heat budget in the Mediterranean Sea from Med-CORDEX forced and coupled simulations

This study evaluates the Mediterranean Sea heat budget components from a set of forced and coupled simulations performed in the frame of the Med-CORDEX project. The simulations use regional climate system models (RCSMs) dedicated to the Mediterranean area and driven by the ERA40/ERA-Interim reanalyses. The study focuses on the period 1980–2010. Interannual variations of the...

Characterizing, modelling and understanding the climate variability of the deep water formation in the North-Western Mediterranean Sea

Observing, modelling and understanding the climate-scale variability of the deep water formation (DWF) in the North-Western Mediterranean Sea remains today very challenging. In this study, we first characterize the interannual variability of this phenomenon by a thorough reanalysis of observations in order to establish reference time series. These quantitative indicators include...

Scaling precipitation extremes with temperature in the Mediterranean: past climate assessment and projection in anthropogenic scenarios

In this study we investigate the scaling of precipitation extremes with temperature in the Mediterranean region by assessing against observations the present day and future regional climate simulations performed in the frame of the HyMeX and MED-CORDEX programs. Over the 1979–2008 period, despite differences in quantitative precipitation simulation across the various models, the...

Mistral and Tramontane wind speed and wind direction patterns in regional climate simulations

The Mistral and Tramontane are important wind phenomena that occur over southern France and the northwestern Mediterranean Sea. Both winds travel through constricting valleys before flowing out towards the Mediterranean Sea. The Mistral and Tramontane are thus interesting phenomena, and represent an opportunity to study channeling effects, as well as the interactions between the...

Obtaining the correct sea surface temperature: bias correction of regional climate model data for the Mediterranean Sea

Here, the COSMO Climate Limited-area Modelling (CCLM) regional climate model (RCM) is used as external forcing for a Mediterranean basin-scale ocean model based on the general estuarine transport model (GETM). CCLM is forced by different global climate models (GCMs) (MPI and EcEarth) and by the ERA-interim (ERAin) reanalysis. Sea surface temperatures (SST) simulated by the...

Ocean circulation drifts in multi-millennial climate simulations: the role of salinity corrections and climate feedbacks

Low-resolution, complex general circulation models (GCMs) are valuable tools for studying the Earth system on multi-millennial timescales. However, slowly evolving salinity drifts can cause large shifts in climatic and oceanic regimes over thousands of years. We test two different schemes for neutralising unforced salinity drifts in the FAMOUS GCM: surface flux correction and...

Future changes in rainfall associated with ENSO, IOD and changes in the mean state over Eastern Africa

This study examines the projected changes in the characteristics of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in terms of mean state, intensity and frequency, and associated rainfall anomalies over eastern Africa. Two regional climate models driven by the same four global climate models (GCMs) and the corresponding GCM simulations are used to...

Indian summer monsoon variability forecasts in the North American multimodel ensemble

The representation of the seasonal mean and interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) in nine global ocean-atmosphere coupled models that participated in the North American Multimodal Ensemble (NMME) phase 1 (NMME:1), and in nine global ocean-atmosphere coupled models participating in the NMME phase 2 (NMME:2) from 1982–2009, is evaluated over the Indo...

Respective roles of remote and local wind stress forcings in the development of warm SST errors in the South-Eastern Tropical Atlantic in a coupled high-resolution model

Processes involved in the development of the warm sea surface temperature (SST) bias in the Tropical South-Eastern Atlantic (SETA) in a high resolution (HR) version of the CNRM-CM model are evaluated based on full-field initialized seasonal hindcasts starting at 1 February of each year for 2000–2009. Whereas the initial SST growth is likely associated with local atmospheric...

A “La Niña-like” state occurring in the second year after large tropical volcanic eruptions during the past 1500 years

Using an ensemble of nine El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) reconstructed proxies and volcano eruption proxies for the past 1500 years, this study shows that a significant La Niña state emerges in the second year (year (2) hereafter) after large tropical volcanic eruptions. The reasons for the development of La Niña are investigated using the Community Earth System Model (CESM...

Stratospheric role in interdecadal changes of El Niño impacts over Europe

The European precipitation response to El Niño (EN) has been found to present interdecadal changes, with alternated periods of important or negligible EN impact in late winter. These periods are associated with opposite phases of multi-decadal sea surface temperature (SST) variability, which modifies the tropospheric background and EN teleconnections. In addition, other studies...

The roles of static stability and tropical–extratropical interactions in the summer interannual variability of the North Atlantic sector

Summer seasonal forecast skill in the North Atlantic sector is lower than winter skill. To identify potential controls on predictability, the sensitivity of North Atlantic baroclinicity to atmospheric drivers is quantified. Using ERA-INTERIM reanalysis data, North Atlantic storm-track baroclinicity is shown to be less sensitive to meridional temperature-gradient variability in...

Towards multi-resolution global climate modeling with ECHAM6-FESOM. Part II: climate variability

This study forms part II of two papers describing ECHAM6-FESOM, a newly established global climate model with a unique multi-resolution sea ice-ocean component. While part I deals with the model description and the mean climate state, here we examine the internal climate variability of the model under constant present-day (1990) conditions. We (1) assess the internal variations...

Variability along the Atlantic water pathway in the forced Norwegian Earth System Model

The growing attention on mechanisms that can provide predictability on interannual-to-decadal time scales, makes it necessary to identify how well climate models represent such mechanisms. In this study we use a high (0.25° horizontal grid) and a medium (1°) resolution version of a forced global ocean-sea ice model, utilising the Norwegian Earth System Model, to assess the impact...

Low fidelity of CORDEX and their driving experiments indicates future climatic uncertainty over Himalayan watersheds of Indus basin

Assessment of future water availability from the Himalayan watersheds of Indus Basin (Jhelum, Kabul and upper Indus basin—UIB) is a growing concern for safeguarding the sustainable socioeconomic wellbeing downstream. This requires, before all, robust climate change information from the present-day state-of-the-art climate models. However, the robustness of climate change...

South Asian monsoon precipitation in CMIP5: a link between inter-model spread and the representations of tropical convection

CMIP5 models exhibit a mean dry bias and a large inter-model spread in simulating South Asian monsoon precipitation but the origins of the bias and spread are not well understood. Using moisture and energy budget analysis that exploits the weak temperature gradients in the tropics, we derived a non-linear relationship between the normalized precipitation and normalized...

On climate prediction: how much can we expect from climate memory?

Slowing variability in climate system is an important source of climate predictability. However, it is still challenging for current dynamical models to fully capture the variability as well as its impacts on future climate. In this study, instead of simulating the internal multi-scale oscillations in dynamical models, we discussed the effects of internal variability in terms of...

Projected changes in extreme precipitation over Scotland and Northern England using a high-resolution regional climate model

The UK Met Office has previously conducted convection-permitting climate simulations over the southern UK (Kendon et al. in Nat Clim Change 4:570–576, 2014). The southern UK simulations have been followed up by a new set of northern UK simulations using the same model configuration. Here we present the mean and extreme precipitation projections from these new simulations...

Response of a comprehensive climate model to a broad range of external forcings: relevance for deep ocean ventilation and the development of late Cenozoic ice ages

Over the past few million years, the Earth descended from the relatively warm and stable climate of the Pliocene into the increasingly dramatic ice age cycles of the Pleistocene. The influences of orbital forcing and atmospheric CO2 on land-based ice sheets have long been considered as the key drivers of the ice ages, but less attention has been paid to their direct influences on...

The future of coastal upwelling in the Humboldt current from model projections

The Humboldt coastal upwelling system in the eastern South Pacific ocean is one of the most productive marine ecosystems in the world. A weakening of the upwelling activity could lead to severe ecological impacts. As coastal upwelling in eastern boundary systems is mainly driven by wind stress, most studies so far have analysed wind patterns change through the 20th and 21st...

The role of local sea surface temperature pattern changes in shaping climate change in the North Atlantic sector

Beside its global effects, climate change is manifested in many regionally pronounced features mainly resulting from changes in the oceanic and atmospheric circulation. Here we investigate the influence of the North Atlantic SST on shaping the winter-time response to global warming. Our results are based on a long-term climate projection with the Max Planck Institute Earth System...