# Climate Dynamics

## List of Papers (Total 675)

#### Assessment of two versions of regional climate model in simulating the Indian Summer Monsoon over South Asia CORDEX domain

This study assess the performance of two versions of Regional Climate Model (RegCM) in simulating the Indian summer monsoon over South Asia for the period 1998 to 2003 with an aim of conducting future climate change simulations. Two sets of experiments were carried out with two different versions of RegCM (viz. RegCM4.2 and RegCM4.3) with the lateral boundary forcings provided from ...

#### Lagged response of summer precipitation to insolation forcing on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau during the Holocene

The precipitation changes on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau during the Holocene remain unclear due to discrepancies among different proxy records. We compared proxy records with the results from a transient simulation performed using the Kiel Climate Model forced by orbital variations, to analyse summer precipitation changes in this area during the Holocene (9.5–0 ka BP). The ...

#### Reconstructing El Niño Southern Oscillation using data from ships’ logbooks, 1815–1854. Part II: Comparisons with existing ENSO reconstructions and implications for reconstructing ENSO diversity

A systematic comparison of El Niño Southern Oscillation reconstructions during the early to mid-nineteenth century is presented using a range of proxy and documentary sources. Reconstructions of the boreal winter Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) using data from ships’ logbooks presented in a companion paper are evaluated and compared to previous ENSO reconstructions. Comparisons ...

#### Snow-atmosphere coupling and its impact on temperature variability and extremes over North America

The impact of snow-atmosphere coupling on climate variability and extremes over North America is investigated using modeling experiments with the fifth generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5). To this end, two CRCM5 simulations driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis for the 1981–2010 period are performed, where snow cover and depth are prescribed (uncoupled) in one simulation ...

#### Linkages between the South and East Asian summer monsoons: a review and revisit

The relationship between the South Asia monsoon (SAM) and the East Asia monsoon (EAM) possibly modulated by both external forcings and internal dynamics has been a long-standing and controversial issue in climate sciences. This study reviews their linkages as revealed in modern records and model simulations during the past, present and future, and provides a comprehensive ...

#### The impact of stochastic parametrisations on the representation of the Asian summer monsoon

The impact of the stochastic schemes Stochastically Perturbed Parametrisation Tendencies (SPPT) and Stochastic Kinetic Energy Backscatter Scheme (SKEBS) on the representation of interannual variability in the Asian summer monsoon is examined in the coupled climate model CCSM4. The Webster–Yang index, measuring anomalies of a specified wind-shear index in the monsoon region, is used ...

#### Effect of AMOC collapse on ENSO in a high resolution general circulation model

We look at changes in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a high-resolution eddy-permitting climate model experiment in which the Atlantic Meridional Circulation (AMOC) is switched off using freshwater hosing. The ENSO mode is shifted eastward and its period becomes longer and more regular when the AMOC is off. The eastward shift can be attributed to an anomalous eastern ...

#### Decadal-scale teleconnection between South Atlantic SST and southeast Australia surface air temperature in austral summer

Austral summer (December–February) surface air temperature over southeast Australia (SEA) is found to be remotely influenced by sea surface temperature (SST) in the South Atlantic at decadal time scales. In austral summer, warm SST anomalies in the southwest South Atlantic induce concurrent above-normal surface air temperature over SEA. This decadal-scale teleconnection occurs ...

#### Which complexity of regional climate system models is essential for downscaling anthropogenic climate change in the Northwest European Shelf?

Climate change impact studies for the Northwest European Shelf (NWES) make use of various dynamical downscaling strategies in the experimental setup of regional ocean circulation models. Projected change signals from coupled and uncoupled downscalings with different domain sizes and forcing global and regional models show substantial uncertainty. In this paper, we investigate ...

#### Seasonal differences in the response of Arctic cyclones to climate change in CESM1

The dramatic warming of the Arctic over the last three decades has reduced both the thickness and extent of sea ice, opening opportunities for business in diverse sectors and increasing human exposure to meteorological hazards in the Arctic. It has been suggested that these changes in environmental conditions have led to an increase in extreme cyclones in the region, therefore ...

#### Consensuses and discrepancies of basin-scale ocean heat content changes in different ocean analyses

Inconsistent global/basin ocean heat content (OHC) changes were found in different ocean subsurface temperature analyses, especially in recent studies related to the slowdown in global surface temperature rise. This finding challenges the reliability of the ocean subsurface temperature analyses and motivates a more comprehensive inter-comparison between the analyses. Here we ...

#### Decadal prediction of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in the HiGEM high-resolution climate model

This paper presents an analysis of initialised decadal hindcasts of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG) using the HiGEM model, which has a nominal grid-spacing of 90 km in the atmosphere, and 1/3$^{\circ }$ in the ocean. HiGEM decadal predictions (HiGEM-DP) exhibit significant skill at capturing 0–500 m ocean heat content in the SPG, and outperform historically forced ...

#### Climatology and seasonality of upper ocean salinity: a three-dimensional view from argo floats

Primarily due to the constraints of observation technologies (both field and satellite measurements), our understanding of ocean salinity is much less mature compared to ocean temperature. As a result, the characterizations of the two most important properties of the ocean are unfortunately out of step: the former is one generation behind the latter in terms of data availability ...

#### Impact of large-scale circulation changes in the North Atlantic sector on the current and future Mediterranean winter hydroclimate

The Mediterranean region, located in the transition zone between the dry subtropical and wet European mid-latitude climate, is very sensitive to changes in the global mean climate state. Projecting future changes of the Mediterranean hydroclimate under global warming therefore requires dynamic climate models to reproduce the main mechanisms controlling regional hydroclimate with ...

#### Global projections of drought hazard in a warming climate: a prime for disaster risk management

Projections of drought hazard (dH) changes have been mapped from five bias-corrected climate models and analyzed at the global level under three representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The motivation for this study is the observation that drought risk is increasing globally and the effective regulation of prevention and adaptation measures depends on dH magnitude and its ...

#### Investigating added value of regional climate modeling in North American winter storm track simulations

Extratropical Cyclone (EC) characteristics depend on a combination of large-scale factors and regional processes. However, the latter are considered to be poorly represented in global climate models (GCMs), partly because their resolution is too coarse. This paper describes a framework using possibilities given by regional climate models (RCMs) to gain insight into storm activity ...

#### Multidecadal-scale adjustment of the ocean mixed layer heat budget in the tropics: examining ocean reanalyses

Distributions of ocean mixed layer temperature trends and trends in the net heat flux from the atmosphere differ, indicating the important role of the transport of heat within the ocean for determining temperature trends. Annual-mean, linear trends in the components of the tropical ocean mixed layer heat budget for 1980–2015 are diagnosed in 4 ocean reanalyses to improve our ...

#### River runoff influences on the Central Mediterranean overturning circulation

The role of riverine freshwater inflow on the Central Mediterranean Overturning Circulation (CMOC) was studied using a high-resolution ocean model with a complete distribution of rivers in the Adriatic and Ionian catchment areas. The impact of river runoff on the Adriatic and Ionian Sea basins was assessed by a twin experiment, with and without runoff, from 1999 to 2012. This study ...

#### Evaluation of CORDEX-Arctic daily precipitation and temperature-based climate indices over Canadian Arctic land areas

This study focuses on the evaluation of daily precipitation and temperature climate indices and extremes simulated by an ensemble of 12 Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations from the ARCTIC-CORDEX experiment with surface observations in the Canadian Arctic from the Adjusted Historical Canadian Climate Dataset. Five global reanalyses products (ERA-Interim, JRA55, MERRA, CFSR and ...

#### The very strong coastal El Niño in 1925 in the far-eastern Pacific

The 1925 El Niño (EN) event was the third strongest in the twentieth century according to its impacts in the far-eastern Pacific (FEP) associated with severe rainfall and flooding in coastal northern Peru and Ecuador in February–April 1925. In this study we gathered and synthesised a large diversity of in situ observations to provide a new assessment of this event from a modern ...

#### The Asian–Bering–North American teleconnection: seasonality, maintenance, and climate impact on North America

The Asian–Bering–North American (ABNA) teleconnection index is constructed from the normalized 500-hPa geopotential field by excluding the Pacific–North American pattern contribution. The ABNA pattern features a zonally elongated wavetrain originating from North Asia and flowing downstream across Bering Sea and Strait towards North America. The large-scale teleconnection is a ...

#### Do differences in future sulfate emission pathways matter for near-term climate? A case study for the Asian monsoon

Anthropogenic aerosols could dominate over greenhouse gases in driving near-term hydroclimate change, especially in regions with high present-day aerosol loading such as Asia. Uncertainties in near-future aerosol emissions represent a potentially large, yet unexplored, source of ambiguity in climate projections for the coming decades. We investigated the near-term sensitivity of ...

#### Poleward energy transport: is the standard definition physically relevant at all time scales?

Poleward energy transport in the atmosphere and oceans constitutes an important branch of the global energy budget, and its role in the climate system has been the subject of many studies. In the atmosphere, the transport is affected by “eddies” and large scale meridional cells, both with zero net mass transport across latitude circles, but also partly by processes associated with ...

#### Assessing probabilistic predictions of ENSO phase and intensity from the North American Multimodel Ensemble

Here we examine the skill of three, five, and seven-category monthly ENSO probability forecasts (1982–2015) from single and multi-model ensemble integrations of the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) project. Three-category forecasts are typical and provide probabilities for the ENSO phase (El Niño, La Niña or neutral). Additional forecast categories indicate the likelihood ...

#### Delineation of thermodynamic and dynamic responses to sea surface temperature forcing associated with El Niño

A new framework is proposed to gain a better understanding of the response of the atmosphere over the tropical Pacific to the radiative heating anomaly associated with the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in canonical El Niño winters. The new framework is based on the equilibrium balance between thermal radiative cooling anomalies associated with air temperature response to ...