Demography

http://link.springer.com/journal/13524

List of Papers (Total 98)

Cognitive Disparities: The Impact of the Great Depression and Cumulative Inequality on Later-Life Cognitive Function

Population aging has driven a spate of recent research on later-life cognitive function. Greater longevity increases the lifetime risk of memory diseases that compromise the cognitive abilities vital to well-being. Alzheimer’s disease, thought to be the most common underlying pathology for elders’ cognitive dysfunction (Willis and Hakim 2013), is already the sixth leading cause of ...

Emigration Rates From Sample Surveys: An Application to Senegal

What is the emigration rate of a country, and how reliable is that figure? Answering these questions is not at all straightforward. Most data on international migration are census data on foreign-born population. These migrant stock data describe the immigrant population in destination countries but offer limited information on the rate at which people leave their country of ...

Working Life Expectancy at Age 50 in the United States and the Impact of the Great Recession

A key concern about population aging is the decline in the size of the economically active population. Working longer is a potential remedy. However, little is known about the length of working life and how it relates to macroeconomic conditions. We use the U.S. Health and Retirement Study for 1992–2011 and multistate life tables to analyze working life expectancy at age 50 and ...

Children and Careers: How Family Size Affects Parents’ Labor Market Outcomes in the Long Run

We estimate the effect of family size on various measures of labor market outcomes over the whole career until retirement, using instrumental variables estimation in data from Norwegian administrative registers. Parents’ number of children is instrumented with the sex mix of their first two children. We find that having additional children causes sizable reductions in labor supply ...

Risk of Developing Dementia at Older Ages in the United States

Dementia is increasingly recognized as a major source of disease burden in the United States, yet little research has evaluated the lifecycle implications of dementia. To address this research gap, this article uses the Aging, Demographics, and Memory Study (ADAMS) to provide the first nationally representative, longitudinal estimates of the probability that a dementia-free person ...

Decomposing Current Mortality Differences Into Initial Differences and Differences in Trends: The Contour Decomposition Method

This study proposes a new decomposition method that permits a difference in an aggregate measure at a final time point to be split into additive components corresponding to the initial differences in the event rates of the measure and differences in trends in these underlying event rates. For instance, when studying divergence in life expectancy, this method allows researchers to ...

The Network Survival Method for Estimating Adult Mortality: Evidence From a Survey Experiment in Rwanda

Adult death rates are a critical indicator of population health and well-being. Wealthy countries have high-quality vital registration systems, but poor countries lack this infrastructure and must rely on estimates that are often problematic. In this article, we introduce the network survival method, a new approach for estimating adult death rates. We derive the precise conditions ...

Lifespan Disparity as an Additional Indicator for Evaluating Mortality Forecasts

Evaluating the predictive ability of mortality forecasts is important yet difficult. Death rates and mean lifespan are basic life table functions typically used to analyze to what extent the forecasts deviate from their realized values. Although these parameters are useful for specifying precisely how mortality has been forecasted, they cannot be used to assess whether the ...

Job Displacement and First Birth Over the Business Cycle

In this article, we investigate the impact of job displacement on women’s first-birth rates as well as the variation in this effect over the business cycle. We use mass layoffs to estimate the causal effects of involuntary job loss on fertility in the short and medium term, up to five years after displacement. Our analysis is based on rich administrative data from Germany, with an ...

The German East-West Mortality Difference: Two Crossovers Driven by Smoking

Before the fall of the Berlin Wall, mortality was considerably higher in the former East Germany than in West Germany. The gap narrowed rapidly after German reunification. The convergence was particularly strong for women, to the point that Eastern women aged 50–69 now have lower mortality despite lower incomes and worse overall living conditions. Prior research has shown that ...

Preference for Boys, Family Size, and Educational Attainment in India

Using data from nationally representative household surveys, we test whether Indian parents make trade-offs between the number of children and investments in education. To address the endogeneity due to the joint determination of quantity and quality of children, we instrument family size with the gender of the first child, which is plausibly random. Given a strong son preference ...

An Assessment and Extension of the Mechanism-Based Approach to the Identification of Age-Period-Cohort Models

Many methods have been proposed to solve the age-period-cohort (APC) linear identification problem, but most are not theoretically informed and may lead to biased estimators of APC effects. One exception is the mechanism-based approach recently proposed and based on Pearl’s front-door criterion; this approach ensures consistent APC effect estimators in the presence of a complete ...

Malthus in the Bedroom: Birth Spacing as Birth Control in Pre-Transition England

We use duration models on a well-known historical data set of more than 15,000 families and 60,000 births in England for the period 1540–1850 to show that the sampled families adjusted the timing of their births in accordance with the economic conditions as well as their stock of dependent children. The effects were larger among the lower socioeconomic ranks. Our findings on the ...

Eliciting Survival Expectations of the Elderly in Low-Income Countries: Evidence From India

We examine several methodological considerations when eliciting probabilistic expectations in a developing country context using the Longitudinal Ageing Study in India (LASI). We conclude that although, on average, individuals are able to understand the concept of probability, responses are sensitive to framing effects and to own versus hypothetical-person effects. We find that ...

Children’s Development and Parental Input: Evidence From the UK Millennium Cohort Study

In this study, we use the UK Millennium Cohort Study to estimate a dynamic factor model of child development. Our model follows the children from birth until 7 years of age and allows for both cognitive and noncognitive abilities in children. We find a significant self-productivity effect in both cognitive and noncognitive development, as well as some evidence of dynamic dependence ...

The Long-Term Cognitive and Socioeconomic Consequences of Birth Intervals: A Within-Family Sibling Comparison Using Swedish Register Data

We examine the relationship between birth-to-birth intervals and a variety of mid- and long-term cognitive and socioeconomic outcomes, including high school GPA, cognitive ability, educational attainment, earnings, unemployment status, and receiving government welfare support. Using contemporary Swedish population register data and a within-family sibling comparison design, we find ...

Agency in Fertility Decisions in Western Europe During the Demographic Transition: A Comparative Perspective

We use a set of linked reproductive histories taken from Sweden, the Netherlands, and Spain for the period 1871–1960 to address key issues regarding how reproductive change was linked specifically to mortality and survivorship and more generally to individual agency. Using event-history analysis, this study investigates how the propensity to have additional children was influenced ...

Place and Child Health: The Interaction of Population Density and Sanitation in Developing Countries

A long literature in demography has debated the importance of place for health, especially children’s health. In this study, we assess whether the importance of dense settlement for infant mortality and child height is moderated by exposure to local sanitation behavior. Is open defecation (i.e., without a toilet or latrine) worse for infant mortality and child height where ...

Is Divorce More Painful When Couples Have Children? Evidence From Long-Term Panel Data on Multiple Domains of Well-being

Theoretical models of the divorce process suggest that marital breakup is more painful in the presence of children, yet little is known about the role of children as a moderator of divorce effects on adult well-being. The present study addresses this gap of research based on long-term panel data from Germany (SOEP). Following individuals over several years before and after divorce, ...

Fathers’ Imprisonment and Mothers’ Multiple-Partner Fertility

We consider the intersection between two striking U.S. trends: dramatic increases in the imprisonment of fathers and increases in the proportion of mothers who have children with more than one partner (multiple-partner fertility, or MPF). Using matched longitudinal administrative data that provide unusually comprehensive and accurate information about the occurrence and timing of ...

The Dynamics of Son Preference, Technology Diffusion, and Fertility Decline Underlying Distorted Sex Ratios at Birth: A Simulation Approach

We present a micro-founded simulation model that formalizes the “ready, willing, and able” framework, originally used to explain historical fertility decline, to the practice of prenatal sex selection. The model generates sex ratio at birth (SRB) distortions from the bottom up and attempts to quantify plausible levels, trends, and interactions of son preference, technology ...

Temporary Life Changes and the Timing of Divorce

Marriage is a risky undertaking that people enter with incomplete information about their partner and their future life circumstances. A large literature has shown how new information gained from unforeseen but long-lasting or permanent changes in life circumstances may trigger a divorce. We extend this literature by considering how information gained from a temporary change in ...

Gendered Authorship and Demographic Research: An Analysis of 50 Years of Demography

Demography, the official journal of the Population Association of America, has been given the highest rating among demographic journals by the Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI). Our aim here is to investigate the development of research subfields and female authorship in Demography over the last 50 years. We find that female authorship in Demography has risen considerably since ...