Emission inventory and trends of NO x for China, 2000–2020

Journal of Zhejiang University-SCIENCE A, Jun 2014

The rapid growth of NO x emissions in China is mainly due to intensive fossil fuel consumption. In order to control NO x emissions, a multiyear NO x emission inventory was established by a bottom-up approach for the period 2000–2010. The results showed that NO x emissions increased by 2.1 times from 11.81 million tons (Mt) in 2000 to 24.33 Mt in 2010. We found that NO x emissions had exceeded SO2 emissions in 2009 by comparison with their emission trends. We also found that the unbalanced NO x emissions in Eastern China and Western China are mainly due to the different gross regional product and industrial structure. Accounting for 70% of total energy consumption in China, coal is the largest NO x emission source among all the fossil fuels. In addition, the increased use of diesel and gasoline has spurred the increase of NO x emissions from the transportation sector. Manufacturing, electricity production, and transportation together composed about 90% of the national NO x emissions. Meanwhile, energy consumption and NO x emissions in China are predicted to be 3908.5 Mt standard coal equivalent (SCE) and 19.7 Mt in 2020 with this scenario analysis, respectively. To achieve a desired NO x reduction target, China should take strict measures to control NO x emissions, such as improvement in reduction technology, promulgation of new emission standards, and joint control by various Chinese provinces.

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Emission inventory and trends of NO x for China, 2000–2020

J Zhejiang Univ-Sci A (Appl Phys & Eng) 1673-565X Emission inventory and trends of NOx for China, 2000-2020* Yun SHI 0 1 Yin-feng XIA 0 1 Bi-hong LU 0 1 Nan LIU 1 Lei ZHANG 0 1 Su-jing LI 1 Wei LI 0 1 0 Institute of Environmental Engineering, Zhejiang University , Hangzhou 310058 , China) 1 Key Laboratory of Biomass Chemical Engineering of Ministry of Education, Institute of Industrial Ecology and Environment, Zhejiang University , Hangzhou 310027, China) ( 2 Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 21276233), and the Postdoctoral Science Preferential Funding of Zhejiang Province, China (No. BSH1301019) © Zhejiang University and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014 The rapid growth of NOx emissions in China is mainly due to intensive fossil fuel consumption. In order to control NOx emissions, a multiyear NOx emission inventory was established by a bottom-up approach for the period 2000-2010. The results showed that NOx emissions increased by 2.1 times from 11.81 million tons (Mt) in 2000 to 24.33 Mt in 2010. We found that NOx emissions had exceeded SO2 emissions in 2009 by comparison with their emission trends. We also found that the unbalanced NOx emissions in Eastern China and Western China are mainly due to the different gross regional product and industrial structure. Accounting for 70% of total energy consumption in China, coal is the largest NOx emission source among all the fossil fuels. In addition, the increased use of diesel and gasoline has spurred the increase of NOx emissions from the transportation sector. Manufacturing, electricity production, and transportation together composed about 90% of the national NOx emissions. Meanwhile, energy consumption and NOx emissions in China are predicted to be 3908.5 Mt standard coal equivalent (SCE) and 19.7 Mt in 2020 with this scenario analysis, respectively. To achieve a desired NOx reduction target, China should take strict measures to control NOx emissions, such as improvement in reduction technology, promulgation of new emission standards, and joint control by various Chinese provinces. NOx; Emission inventory; Scenario prediction; Energy consumption; China doi; 10; 1631/jzus; A1300379 Document code; A CLC number; X511 1 Introduction Anthropogenic nitrogen oxides, mainly from the consumption of fossil fuels, have a series of complicated influences on tropospheric chemistry, leading to phenomena such as summer photochemical smog (Dimitriades, 1972; Rubio et al., 2002) , the increase in urban and tropospheric ozone levels (Volz and Kley, 1988; Melkonyan and Wagner, 2013) , acid deposition (Galloway, 1995; Sickles and Shadwick, 2007; Matsumoto et al., 2011) , and the formation of nitrate aerosol (Kim et al., 2012). These are major concerns for ambient air quality and have broad impact on human health (Weschler, 2006) . Due to the rapid growth of the economy between 2000 and 2010, China became the second largest economy in the world and experienced a rapid increase of energy consumption, which directly spurred the increase of NOx emissions. Consequently, China is the largest NOx emission country in Asia contributing 41%–57% of Asian NOx emissions (Streets and Waldhoff, 2000; Ohara et al., 2007; Klimont et al., 2009; Zhang et al., 2009) , and has been suffering from severe environmental pollution and public health problems (Zhang Q.Y. et al., 2007; Kan et al., 2012) . To control NOx emissions, a 10% cut of NOx emissions by 2015 has been listed as an obligatory target in the 12th Five-Year Plan (FYP, 2011–2015) of China (MEP, 2011) , on the basis of conditions that exist in 2010. (2-1) (2-2) (2-3) (2-4) To assess the impacts of NOx emissions on the troposphere and to develop practical strategies for NOx mitigation, detailed knowledge of emission loads, spatial environment and temporal distribution are required. Although several emission inventories for China have been established over the past decade (Streets and Waldhoff, 2000; Hao et al., 2002; Ohara et al., 2007; Zhang Q. et al., 2007; Cao et al., 2011; Saikawa et al., 2011) , they are either out of date or just cover a short period. In this work, we carried out a multiyear NOx emission inventory by bottom-up approaches in China during the period 2000–2010, which described NOx emission variation, and we analyzed the contributions of NOx emissions by different fossil fuels, provinces, and economic sectors. The NOx emission trends over the period 2011–2020 are predicted by using scenario analysis approaches, and then some suggestions on sustainable development and NOx emission control are proposed. 2 Analysis methods and data sources 2.1 Bottom-up method The NOx emissions estimated by bottom-up methods in this research only come from fossil fuel consumption from different economic sectors in China, including coal, coke, crude oil, gasoline, kerosene, diesel, residual oil, and natural gas. Gschwandtner et al. (1986) described the concept of the (...truncated)


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Yun Shi, Yin-feng Xia, Bi-hong Lu, Nan Liu. Emission inventory and trends of NO x for China, 2000–2020, Journal of Zhejiang University-SCIENCE A, 2014, pp. 454-464, Volume 15, Issue 6, DOI: 10.1631/jzus.A1300379