Predicting earthquakes: The Mw9.0 Tohoku Earthquake and historical earthquakes in Northeastern Japan

International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, Sep 2012

A magnitude 7.3 foreshock occurred two days before the magnitude 9.0 Tohoku Earthquake. The energy release of earthquakes within two days after the M7.3 earthquake is obviously different from the aftershocks of the Mw9.0 earthquake. But guided by historical earthquake experience, seismologists regarded the M7.3 earthquake as the main shock rather than a foreshock of another greater earthquake. Based on the analysis of historical earthquakes in coastal areas of northeastern Japan, the recurrence time of earthquakes is in quasi-periods of decadal or centennial scale. These quasi-periods are related to fault rupture along subduction zones located in marine environments adjacent to the coast. The probabilistic prediction for future earthquakes made by Japanese seismologists using historical earthquake data is based on a decadal scale quasi-period. It is difficult, however, to make relatively reliable predictions about the recurrence interval of rare great earthquakes based on historical earthquakes due to the very long intervals between large magnitude quakes and the limited historical and scientific records about their characteristics.

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Predicting earthquakes: The Mw9.0 Tohoku Earthquake and historical earthquakes in Northeastern Japan

Int. J. Disaster Risk Sci. Predicting Earthquakes: The Mw9.0 Tohoku Earthquake and Historical Earthquakes in Northeastern Japan Jifu Liu 1 Yongsheng Zhou 0 0 State Key Laboratory of Earthquake Dynamics, Institute of Geology , China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100029 , China 1 State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University , Beijing 100875 , China A magnitude 7.3 foreshock occurred two days before the magnitude 9.0 Tohoku Earthquake. The energy release of earthquakes within two days after the M7.3 earthquake is obviously different from the aftershocks of the Mw9.0 earthquake. But guided by historical earthquake experience, seismologists regarded the M7.3 earthquake as the main shock rather than a foreshock of another greater earthquake. Based on the analysis of historical earthquakes in coastal areas of northeastern Japan, the recurrence time of earthquakes is in quasi-periods of decadal or centennial scale. These quasi-periods are related to fault rupture along subduction zones located in marine environments adjacent to the coast. The probabilistic prediction for future earthquakes made by Japanese seismologists using historical earthquake data is based on a decadal scale quasi-period. It is difficult, however, to make relatively reliable predictions about the recurrence interval of rare great earthquakes based on historical earthquakes due to the very long intervals between large magnitude quakes and the limited historical and scientific records about their characteristics. earthquake prediction; foreshock; historical earthquake; Japan; Tohoku Earthquake 1 Introduction Short-range strong earthquake prediction according to a great quantity of intensive small earthquakes is one of the common methods employed in earthquake prediction, and the prediction of the Haicheng Earthquake in China is the most successful example (Chen 2009; Xu et al. 1982). But it is difficult to tell whether an earthquake that has occurred is a foreshock of another quake or is itself the main event. On the other hand, due to a lack of foreshocks (Marzocchi and Zechar 2011), no forecast was issued for the Tangshan and Wenchuan Earthquakes, both of which resulted in considerable casualties. On 11 March 2011, a Mw9.0 earthquake happened in the northeast of Japan. Before this Mw9.0 earthquake, a M7.3 earthquake occurred on March 9 in the same place. The M7.3 earthquake did not attract much attention due to its occurrence under the sea over 130 km away from the shore. In this location, the M7.3 quake caused neither severe destruction nor a devastating tsunami, although the quake belonged in the strong earthquake category in terms of magnitude. By examining this earthquake and the subsequent earthquake sequence, researchers later concluded that these earthquakes were actually a foreshock sequence of a greater earthquake rather than a typical aftershock sequence of the M7.3 earthquake (He, Zhou, and Ma 2011; Ozawa et al. 2011). Why was the M7.3 earthquake not recognized earlier as a foreshock? Seismologists attributed this to the lack of a history of great earthquakes in northeastern Japan. Thus the prediction of such an earthquake went beyond the cognitive range of their seismic activities. Similarly, since no such strong earthquake occurred in the Longmenshan area before the Wenchuan Earthquake in China in 2008 (Wen et al. 2009), seismologists took it for granted that there would be no strong earthquake in the future in the area, and thus paid little attention to its possible occurrence. According to historical earthquake catalogues, earthquakes have occurred periodically. In China, there have been five active seismic periods since 1895, marked by the occurrence of large earthquakes (Zhang, Fu, and Gui 2001). Period of seismic activity is often used to predict the future trend of earthquakes. Internationally, Geller and colleagues (1997) and Sykes, Shaw, and Scholz (1999) hold somewhat opposite views. According to the self-organized critical (SOC) phenomenon, Geller and colleagues believe that earthquakes cannot be predicted. But Sykes, Shaw, and Scholz think that at a certain scale large earthquakes can be predicted. Predicting the future trend of earthquakes according to the quasi-period of historical earthquakes clearly involves great uncertainties. In practice, prediction according to the causative rules of historical earthquakes is one of the common methods for predicting middle- and long-term earthquakes (Wang 2009). But it is unavoidable for such a method to fail in predicting great earthquakes with an especially long causative cycle. This article discusses the limitations of predicating earthquakes based on historical earthquakes by analyzing the foreshock characteristics and historical record of earthquakes in eastern Japan. © The Author(s) 2012. This article is published with open access at Springerlink.com www.ijdrs.org www.springer.com/13753 2 Foreshock Activiti (...truncated)


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Jifu Liu, Yongsheng Zhou. Predicting earthquakes: The Mw9.0 Tohoku Earthquake and historical earthquakes in Northeastern Japan, International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2012, pp. 155-162, Volume 3, Issue 3, DOI: 10.1007/s13753-012-0016-0