Future climate and adverse health effects caused by fine particulate matter air pollution: case study for Poland
Marko Tainio
0
1
2
3
4
5
Katarzyna Juda-Rezler
0
1
2
3
4
5
Magdalena Reizer
0
1
2
3
4
5
Aleksander Warchaowski
0
1
2
3
4
5
Wojciech Trapp
0
1
2
3
4
5
Krzysztof Skotak
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
K. Juda-Rezler M. Reizer Warsaw University of Technology
, Nowowiejska 20, 00-653 Warsaw,
Poland
1
M. Tainio National Institute for Health and Welfare (THL)
, P.O. Box 95, 70701 Kuopio,
Finland
2
M. Tainio (&) Systems Research Institute (SRI), Polish Academy of Sciences
, Ul. Newelska 6, 01-447 Warsaw,
Poland
3
K. Skotak Institute of Environmental Protection, National Research Institute
, Krucza 5/11d, 00-548 Warsaw,
Poland
4
K. Skotak National Institute of Public Health-National Institute of Hygiene (NIZP-PZH)
, Chocimska 24, 00-791 Warsaw,
Poland
5
A. Warchaowski W. Trapp EKOMETRIA Sp. z o.o., Orfeusza 2, 80-299 Gdansk,
Poland
Ground level air pollution, especially fine particulate matter (PM2.5), has been associated with a number of adverse health effects. The dispersion of PM2.5 through the atmosphere depends on several mutually connected anthropogenic, geophysical and meteorological parameters, all of which are affected by climate change. This study examines how projected climate change would affect population exposure to PM2.5 air pollution in Poland. Population exposure to PM2.5 in Poland was estimated for three decades: the 1990s, 2040s and 2090s. Future climate conditions were projected by Regional Climate Model RegCM (Beta), forced by the general atmospheric circulation model ECHAM5. The dispersion of PM2.5 was simulated with chemical transport model CAMx version 4.40. Population exposure estimates of PM2.5 were 18.3, 17.2 and 17.1 lg/m3 for the 1990s, 2040s and 2090s, respectively. PM2.5 air pollution was estimated to cause approximately 39,800 premature deaths in the population of Poland in the year 2000. Our results indicate that in Poland, climate change may reduce the levels of exposure to anthropogenic particulate air pollution in future decades and that this reduction will reduce adverse health effects caused by the air pollution.
-
Fine particulate matter (PM2.5, particulate matter with an
aerodynamic diameter of less than 2.5 lm) causes adverse
health effects worldwide. The previous health impact
assessment studies have estimated that PM2.5 causes over
800,000 premature deaths annually, worldwide (Cohen
et al. 2005), and around 350,000 premature deaths in
Europe alone (Watkiss et al. 2005). The World Health
Organization (WHO) estimates that, worldwide, PM2.5
cause[s] about 8 % of lung cancer deaths, 5 % of
cardiopulmonary deaths and about 3 % of respiratory
infection deaths (WHO 2009). In high-income countries,
ambient PM2.5 is the most significant environmental health
risk (WHO 2009).
Climate change refers to the change in the state of the
climate, both due to natural variability and as a result of
human activity (IPCC 2007a). The main indicators of
climate change are (1) the concentrations of greenhouse gases
(GHG) and aerosols, (2) land cover and (3) radiation (IPCC
2007a). As a result of climate change, the global
temperature is expected to increase 1.84.0 C between
19801999 and 20902099, depending on emission
scenarios (IPCC 2007b). Climate change is one of the main
environmental challenges for humankind in the twenty-first
century.
PM2.5 air pollution and climate change are linked on
several levels. Particulate matter (as an aerosol) cools the
climate (IPCC 2007a). Additionally, the same source emits
both GHG and PM2.5. This means that the mitigation of either
PM2.5 or GHG emissions will likely also affect the other (e.g.
ApSimon et al. 2009). The integrated assessment models in
place, such as GAINS (Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution
Interactions and Synergies, http://gains.iiasa.ac.at/gains/),
assess cost-effective mitigation strategies jointly for PM2.5
and GHG emissions.
Climate change affects PM2.5 air pollution
concentrations through changes in meteorology. The formation of
secondary PM2.5 and dispersion of PM2.5 depends on
meteorological parameters, and a change in these
parameters will also change the formation and dispersion of PM. A
number of studies have examined this issue (e.g. Racherla
and Adams 2006; Tagaris et al. 2007, 2009). The review
published by Ebi and McGregor (2008) concluded that
climate change would increase ozone concentrations if the
precursor gas emissions did not change in future decades.
Regarding PM2.5, they considered evidence less robust due
to lack of published studies. Another review by Jacob and
Winner (2009) concluded that different published studies
estimate changes of 1 lg/m3 in annual mean PM2.5
concentrations due to climate change in the United States (US)
and Europe, with little consensus between studies.
In this study, we examined on how climate change
would affect exposure to and adverse health effects caused
by PM2.5 air pollution in Poland. We calculated PM2.5
concentration over Poland for three decades: the 1990s,
2040s and 2090s. To account for the im (...truncated)