Estimates of the cancer incidence and mortality in Europe in 2006
J. Ferlay
0
P. Autier
0
M. Boniol
0
M. Heanue
0
M. Colombet
0
P. Boyle
0
0
International Agency for Research on Cancer, 150 cours Albert Thomas
,
69372 Lyon Cedex 08
,
France
Background: Monitoring the evolution of the cancer burden in Europe is of great value. Estimates of the cancer burden in Europe have been published for 2004 and estimates are now being presented for cancer incidence and mortality in Europe for 2006. Methods: The most recent sources of cancer incidence and mortality data have been collected and projections have been carried out using short-term prediction methods to produce estimated rates for 2006. Additional estimation was required where national incidence data were not available, and the method involved the projection of the aggregations of cancer incidence and mortality data from representative cancer registries. The estimated 2006 rates were applied to the corresponding estimated country population to obtain the best estimates of the cancer incidence and mortality in Europe in 2006. Results: In 2006 in Europe, there were an estimated 3 191 600 cancer cases diagnosed (excluding nonmelanoma skin cancers) and 1 703 000 deaths from cancer. The most common form of cancers was breast cancer (429 900 cases, 13.5% of all cancer cases), followed by colorectal cancers (412 900, 12.9%) and lung cancer (386 300, 12.1%). Lung cancer, with an estimated 334 800 deaths (19.7% of total), was the most common cause of death from cancer, followed by colorectal (207 400 deaths), breast (131 900) and stomach (118 200) cancers. Conclusions: The total number of new cases of cancer in Europe appears to have increased by 300 000 since 2004. With an estimated 3.2 million new cases (53% occurring in men, 47% in women) and 1.7 million deaths (56% in men, 44% in women) each year, cancer remains an important public health problem in Europe and the ageing of the European population will cause these numbers to continue to increase even if age-specific rates remain constant. Evidence-based public health measures exist to reduce the mortality of breast and colorectal cancer while the incidence of lung cancer, and several other forms of cancer, could be diminished by improved tobacco control.
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introduction
Comprehensive estimates of the incidence and mortality from
Cancer at a European level can be extracted from the
GLOBOCAN 2002 project of International Agency for Research
on Cancer [1], but there is still no way of monitoring the
evolution of the cancer burden at the European level. In 1989,
the European Network of Cancer Registries (ENCR) was
established within the framework of the Europe Against Cancer
programme of the European Commission. One of the objectives
was to provide regular information on the burden of cancer in
the European Union (EU). Starting from 1995 [2], the ENCR
published regular estimates of the incidence and prevalence of
and mortality from cancer in the EU using the EUCAN software
[3]. The ENCR activities have suffered an interruption so that
the latest estimates available using the EUCAN system are of less
use for todays cancer control and planning.
In an attempt to monitor the evolution of cancer mortality in
the EU, it was observed that the expected number of cancer
deaths in the (15 Member State) EU fell by >9% from 1985 to
2000 [4]. During the lifetime of the Europe Against Cancer
programme, favourable trends in cancer mortality were
established for several common forms of cancer death in many
countries [4] which appear likely to continue in the near future
[5] although there were notable exceptions including lung
cancer in women and most forms of cancer in Spain and
Portugal [4].
In the year 2000, there were 1 122 000 deaths from cancer
recorded in the 25-Member EU [5]. Even if the age-specific
cancer mortality rates remain constant at year 2000 levels, there
will be large increases in the absolute numbers of cancer cases
and deaths into the foreseeable future. Although the total
population will remain fairly constant, compared with 2000, by
2015 there will a 22% increase in the numbers in the population
aged >65 and a 50% increase in the number of persons aged
>80. Given the strong association between cancer risk and age,
this will lead to a major increase in the cancer burden. Using
population projections, if the age-specific death rates remain
constant, the absolute numbers of cancer deaths in 2015 will
increase to 1 405 000. Even if the forecast trends are taken into
account, it is still expected that there will be an increase but this
will only be lesser and result in an estimated figure of 1 249 000
cancer deaths [5].
Boyle and Ferlay [6] produced estimates of cancer incidence
and mortality in Europe for the year 2004, using the most recent
sources of cancer data available at that time, applied to
population projections. This was the first of a series designated
to provide regular and timely estimates of the cancer burden in
Europe. The aim of this report is to provide more (...truncated)