Prediction of pest pressure on corn root nodes: the POPP-Corn model

Journal of Pest Science, Jun 2016

A model for the corn rootworm Diabrotica spp. combined with a temporally explicit model for development of corn roots across the soil profile was developed to link pest ecology, root damage and yield loss. Development of the model focused on simulating root damage from rootworm feeding in accordance with observations in the field to allow the virtual testing of efficacy from management interventions in the future. We present the model and demonstrate its applicability for simulating root damage by comparison between observed and simulated pest development and root damage (assessed according to the node injury scale from 0 to 3) for field studies from the literature conducted in Urbana, Illinois (US), between 1991 and 2014. The model simulated the first appearance of larvae and adults to within a week of that observed in 88 and 71 % of all years, respectively, and in all cases to within 2 weeks of the first sightings recorded for central Illinois. Furthermore, in 73 % of all years simulated root damage differed by <0.5 node injury scale points compared to the observations made in the field between 2005 and 2014 even though accurate information for initial pest pressure (i.e. number of eggs in the soil) was not measured at the sites or available from nearby locations. This is, to our knowledge, the first time that pest ecology, root damage and yield loss have been successfully interlinked to produce a virtual field. There are potential applications in investigating efficacy of different pest control measures and strategies.

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Prediction of pest pressure on corn root nodes: the POPP-Corn model

Prediction of pest pressure on corn root nodes: the POPP-Corn model Annika Agatz 0 1 2 3 Roman Ashauer 0 1 2 3 Paul Sweeney 0 1 2 3 Colin D. Brown 0 1 2 3 0 Environment Department, University of York , Heslington, York , UK 1 & Annika Agatz 2 Communicated by M. Traugott 3 Syngenta , Jealott's Hill, Bracknell , UK A model for the corn rootworm Diabrotica spp. combined with a temporally explicit model for development of corn roots across the soil profile was developed to link pest ecology, root damage and yield loss. Development of the model focused on simulating root damage from rootworm feeding in accordance with observations in the field to allow the virtual testing of efficacy from management interventions in the future. We present the model and demonstrate its applicability for simulating root damage by comparison between observed and simulated pest development and root damage (assessed according to the node injury scale from 0 to 3) for field studies from the literature conducted in Urbana, Illinois (US), between 1991 and 2014. The model simulated the first appearance of larvae and adults to within a week of that observed in 88 and 71 % of all years, respectively, and in all cases to within 2 weeks of the first sightings recorded for central Illinois. Furthermore, in 73 % of all years simulated root damage differed by \0.5 node injury scale points compared to the observations made in the field between 2005 and 2014 even though accurate information for initial pest pressure (i.e. number of eggs in the soil) was not measured at the sites or available from nearby locations. This is, to our knowledge, the first time that pest ecology, root damage and yield loss have been successfully interlinked to produce a virtual field. There are potential applications in investigating efficacy of different pest control measures and strategies. Population model; Integrated pest management; Diabrotica; Node injury; Zea mays; Pest - • The corn rootworm is a pest of international importance in corn production due to larvae feeding on roots. Deciding on the necessity for and optimal decision on type of control measure is challenging because damage and yield loss vary with region and season. A model capable of predicting root damage specific to region and season has been developed and provides a powerful tool to support decision-making processes for both provider and user of pest control measures. Introduction The corn rootworm Diabrotica spp. (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) is a univoltine pest in corn [Zea mays subsp. Mays (L.)] production which has become a pest of international importance due to its presence in the USA, Canada, Mexico and Europe (Meinke et al. 2009) . Yield loss and expenses associated with rootworm damage exceed costs of $1 billion per year in the USA alone (Tinsley et al. 2015) . Adult beetles lay eggs from the middle of the summer to late autumn into the upper 30 cm of soil (Vidal et al. 2005) . Eggs overwinter and develop to new adults below ground over the summer to then emerge from the soil, mate and lay eggs for the next growing season. The larvae, which hatch from the eggs around early summer, pass through three instar phases before pupation and emergence as adult beetles (Meinke et al. 2009) . All larval instars depend on foraging on corn roots for successful development; this can cause substantial damage which is manifested in reduced growth and lodging of corn plants (Meinke et al. 2009) . The damage caused depends on a variety of factors including, but not limited to, pest pressure, planting time, row spacing at planting, climate and soil type. Damage control strategies for corn rootworm include the use of crop rotation, the use of Bt corn and the application of plant protection products against adults as foliar application and/or against larvae as seed treatment or soil application (Hodgson 2008) . Both the need for damage control measures and the effectiveness of those measures in controlling pest populations within economic thresholds will vary in space and time. This presents challenges to farmers in deciding on the necessity for and optimal decision on type of control measure, and to assessors and developers of control measures to judge the overall (region- and season-independent) efficacy of a control measure. The development of a temporally and spatially explicit population model which supports the prediction of root damage and yield loss that is specific to region and season could thus be a vital step towards the provision of a powerful tool to support decision-making processes for both provider and user of pest control measures. There has been extensive research on simulation of corn rootworm including the development of modelling tools to predict temporal egg hatch and adult emergence (Nowatzki et al. 2002; Schaafsma et al. 1991; Stevenson et al. 2008) , the development of cohort population models (Elliott and Hein 1991; Elliott et al. 1990; Mitchell and Riedel (...truncated)


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Annika Agatz, Roman Ashauer, Paul Sweeney, Colin D. Brown. Prediction of pest pressure on corn root nodes: the POPP-Corn model, Journal of Pest Science, 2017, pp. 161-172, Volume 90, Issue 1, DOI: 10.1007/s10340-016-0788-x