Household food security in the face of climate change in the Hindu-Kush Himalayan region
Household food security in the face of climate change in the Hindu-Kush Himalayan region
Abid Hussain 0 2
Golam Rasul 0 2
Bidhubhusan Mahapatra 0 2
Sabarnee Tuladhar 0 2
0 Present address: Room to Read , New Delhi , India
1 Abid Hussain
2 Dr. Bidhubhusan Mahapatra was working as Survey Research Specialist at the International Centre for Integrated Mountain D e v e l o p m e n t ( I C I M O D ) . Recently, he has joined Room to Read , New Delhi , India as South Asia Research, Monitoring and Evaluation Manager. He holds a Ph.D. in Population Studies from the International Institute for Population Sciences , Mumbai , India. He has more than 6 years e x p e r i e n c e i n d e s i g n i n g , implementing and evaluating research tools in the areas of health, education, food security and climate change. Dr Mahapatra has published more than three dozen high quality research papers in reputable journals
This study attempts to understand local people's perceptions of climate change, its impacts on agriculture and household food security, and local adaptation strategies in the Hindu-Kush Himalayan (HKH) region, using data from 8083 households (HHs) from four river sub-basins (SBs), i.e. Upper Indus (Pakistan), Eastern Brahmaputra (India), Koshi (Nepal) and Salween and Mekong (China). The majority of households in SBs, in recent years, have perceived that there have been more frequent incidences of floods, landslides, droughts, livestock diseases and crop pests, and have attributed these to climate change. These changes have led to low agricultural production and income, particularly in Eastern Brahmaputra (EB) where a substantial proportion of HHs reported a decline in the production of almost all staple and cash crops, resulting in very low farm income. Consequently, households' dependency on external food items supplied from plain areas has increased, particularly in the Upper Indus (UI) and EB. After hazards, households face transitory food insecurity owing to damage to their local food systems and livelihood sources, and constrained food supply from other areas. To cope with these, HHs in SBs make changes in their farming practices and livestock management. In EB, 11 % of HHs took on new off-farm activities within the SB and in SM, 23 % of HHs chose outmigration as an adaptation strategy. Lastly, the study proposes policy instruments for attaining sustainable food security, based on agro-ecological potential and opportunities for increasing agricultural resilience and diversity of livelihoods.
Agriculture; Food security; Climate change; Mountains; Adaptation strategies; Hindu-Kush Himalaya region
-
1 International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development
(ICIMOD), Kathmandu, Nepal
Introduction
Mountains provide 40 % of global goods and services in the
form of water, hydroelectricity, timber, biodiversity and niche
products, mineral resources, recreation, and flood control
(Huddleston et al. 2003)
. However, 51 % of the almost 842
million people worldwide facing chronic hunger, are
accounted for by six Hindu-Kush Himalayan (HKH)
countries, i.e. Bangladesh, China, India, Myanmar, Nepal and
Pakistan
(FAO 2013)
. Moreover, recent studies
(Giribabu
2013; MoHP-Nepal 2012; FSA 2009; Hussain and Routray
2012)
have revealed that severity of food insecurity in
mountain areas of HKH countries is significantly higher than in
plain areas.
Mountain people, particularly in the HKH region, are
highly vulnerable to food insecurity because of their low
productivity, subsistence economies, constraints of terrain and
climate, poor infrastructure, limited access to markets, physical
isolation, vulnerability to natural hazards and high cost of food
production and transportation
(Rasul 2011; Tiwari and Joshi
2012; Ward et al. 2012, Huddleston et al. 2003, FAO 2008)
.
The natural resource base in the HKH region, particularly soil
nutrients, water and biomass, has been steadily depleted over
recent years, resulting in a significant decline in food
production
(Tiwari 2000; Andersen et al. 2005)
. Increasing impacts
of climate change have added to food insecurity, particularly
in the Hindu-Kush Himalayan (HKH) region, where people
are affected in both upstream and downstream areas
(Chatterjee and Khadka 2013; Abbas 2009; World Bank
2009; ICIMOD 2008)
.
The livelihoods and food security of mountain
communities depend heavily on the local resource base at all elevations,
although the specific agro-ecological and livelihood potentials
vary considerably. Subsistence agriculture, livestock and
horticulture are the main sources of livelihoods, with livestock
becoming more important than arable farming at higher
elevations. Remittances from those who have out-migrated from
these communities, small businesses, wage labor, tourism and
collection of medicinal plants and other herbs also contribute
to livelihoods and food security. However, in recent years,
climatic and socioeconomic factors have contributed to
depletion of the natural resource base across the HKH region
(Rasul
et al. 2014)
. Climatic changes included unprecedented
changes in precipitation patterns and hydrological imbalances, rises
in temperature, frequent floods and degradation of the forests,
rangelands and agricultural land
(Nautiyal et al. 2007)
.
Unusually heavy rainfalls, triggering Glacial Lake Outburst
Floods. (GLOFs) in the mountain areas
(Din et al. 2014)
, have
also been attributed to climate change. In the Upper Indus
basin, for instance, the frequency and intensity of GLOF
events have increased during recent years, five occurring
during 2008–2009 in the Gojal valley of Hunza alone. Analysis
of GLOF events showed that they were linked to weather
conditions in terms of increased temperature, rainfall and
increased occurrence of heat waves. Recently (July 2015),
heavy monsoon rains coupled with GLOF affected the
Chitral District in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) Province
(IFRC 2015)
.
‘Too much or too little water’ is adding to the vulnerability
of mountain agriculture, which is mainly rain-fed. Mountain
farmers are experiencing frequent floods and prolonged
droughts, resulting in low productivity of agriculture and
higher prevalence of food insecurity
(Hussain et al. 2016)
. In
Nepal, for instance, the incidence of food poverty in mountain
regions is 48 % compared to 18 % in the plain areas
(Haslett
et al. 2014: p. 28)
. Likewise, in mountain areas of Pakistan,
including FATA, Baluchistan, Gilgit-Baltistan and KPK,
nearly 60 % of the people are food insecure
(FSA 2009)
. The past
trends and the projected changes in temperature and
precipitation in the HKH clearly show that temperature and
precipitation patterns are changing faster in this region than
neighbouring regions
(Dhakal et al. 2010; Government of
Nepal 2011)
. Unusual rainfall patterns, attributed to climate
change, are also resulting in the disappearance of some crop
species and varieties from local food systems owing to lack of
conservation initiatives
(FAO-AIPP-IWGIA 2015)
.
Ensuring food security has become a big challenge in the
face of such changes, particularly as subsistence farmers are
already facing the constraints of limited arable land, difficult
terrain, unfavorable bio-physical conditions, physical
isolation and limited market access
(Rasul et al. 2014)
. A further
factor is the increasing rate of out-migration, which is causing
labor shortages in agriculture, leading to underutilization of
agriculture potential. The consequent reduced agricultural
production has affected food security and increased the overall
vulnerability of mountain people, as they have become more
dependent on food from outside and thus exposed to market
fluctuations.
Food security in mountain areas usually does not attract
much attention from researchers and development planners
owing to the physical isolation and higher cost of research
and development activities
(Rasul and Karki 2007)
.
Therefore there is a dire need to understand the challenges to
mountain farming systems, local adaptation strategies and
food security in the face of the changing climatic conditions
already described. Such understanding may provide novel
adaptation strategies that allow mountain people to maintain
their food security and livelihoods.
The primary purpose of this study is to understand local
people’s perception of climate change, its impacts on
agriculture and household food security, and local adaptation
strategies, using large-scale survey data collected from four river
sub-basins, i.e. Upper Indus (Pakistan), Koshi (Nepal),
Eastern Brahmaputra (India), and Salween and Mekong
(China). It has also identified the opportunities arising out of
changing climate for mountain farmers to achieve sustainable
food security and livelihoods. This study is descriptive
research, which was designed to rely mainly on information
provided by local people on the ground. A secondary purpose
of the study was to validate the findings of various scientific
studies of impacts of climate change in the mountain areas of
the HKH region. It is hoped that the study will provide a better
understanding of the vulnerability of mountain people to food
insecurity under climatic change and their ability to adapt.
Methodology
Research design and study area
This study uses data which was collected through a large scale
survey in four river sub-basins, i.e. Upper Indus (Pakistan),
Koshi (Nepal), Eastern Brahmaputra (India), and Salween and
Mekong (China) of the Hindu-Kush Himalayan region
(Fig. 1). This survey tool, named ‘Vulnerability and
Adaptive Capacity Assessment (VACA)’, was developed by
the International Centre of Integrated Mountain Development
(ICIMOD) in 2011 under the Himalayan Climate Change
Adaptation Project (HICAP) to assess the livelihood
vulnerability, adaptive capacity and responses to climatic and
socioeconomic changes. VACA covers a broad range of aspects
with regard to mountain agriculture, food security,
livelihoods, ecosystem services, climatic and socioeconomic
changes, environmental stability and local adaptation
strategies. However, the present study has only used those data that
were collected to investigate the linkages of climate change
with agriculture and food security.
The selected four river sub-basins (SBs) are upstream parts
of those large river basins, which are among the largest and the
most productive ecosystems in the world. These basins
provide water not only for agriculture, but also for forestry and
fisheries as well as urban and industrial purposes
(Sikka and
Ringler 2009)
. Recent studies
(Yu et al. 2013; Rasul &
Hussain 2015; Bhatt et al. 2014; Zhen-Feng et al. 2013)
have
revealed that increased incidences of erratic precipitation,
floods, dry spells and landslides, attributed to climate change,
have led to decline in agricultural productivity and
deterioration of food security. This study investigates whether these
scientific findings were mirrored in local people’s perception
of climate change and its impacts on agriculture and
household food security. Projections of climate change modeling
suggest that these river basins will also impact future water
availabilities in the respective countries through changes in
precipitation patterns and decline in water from glaciers.
Sampling design
In India, the study areas selected comprised the states of
Arunachal Pradesh (districts: East Siang, Lower Dibang,
Lohit) and Assam (districts: Dhemaji, Lakhimpur, Moregaon
& Tinsukia). In Nepal, the selected districts were Dolakha,
Kavre-Palanchowk, Khotang, Udayapur, Sunsari and Siraha.
In Pakistan, the provinces Gilgit Baltistan (districts: Gilgit &
Hunzanagar) and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (district: Chitral)
w e r e s e l e c t e d . I n Ch i n a , th e c o u n t i e s o f Li n a n g ,
Baosanchan, Dali, Diqing and Nujiang were selected. Within
these selected states/districts, random selections of settlements
were made followed by a random route procedure to choose
the households. Overall, 8083 households were surveyed:
1139, 2647, 2310 and 1987 from Upper Indus, Eastern
Brahmaputra, Koshi, and Salween and Mekong, respectively.
Data collected for this study may not be a true representative
of the sub-basins because districts in the states/provinces were
selected purposively in view of their higher vulnerability to
climate change impacts rather than following a systematic
random sampling technique. Thus, for generalization of
results at sub-basin levels, authors clearly caution that sampling
design has some limitations.
Type and nature of collected data
For this study, both quantitative and qualitative data were
analyzed. Quantitative data included household size, land
under different cultivation practices, monthly food and non-food
expenditure, agricultural income and working members of
households. Qualitative data included households’ reporting
on cultivation of major staple and cash crops, households’
response on ownership of different types of livestock,
perception of climate change, reporting on out-migration, perception
of climate change impacts on crop production, adaptation
strategies and reporting on non-agricultural income sources.
Some important points about the nature of the data are
clarified below.
1) In this study, reported climatic changes (Figs. 2, 3, 4, 5
and 6) mean ‘incidence of extreme events’ observed by
the households in the last 10 years.
2) Some crops are categorized under both staple and cash
crop categories (Tables 3 and 6) because these are being
cultivated as both staple and cash crops depending on the
farmers’ choice in response to market access and prices.
Staple crops are those that are cultivated mainly for
household food consumption, whereas cash crops are
cultivated with the objective of sale to earn income.
3) Changes in crop production attributable to climate change
(Table 6) are average changes perceived by the
households in the past 10 years.
4) Households’ judgement criteria on climate change
perception may vary across households but still provide
some robust indications about the incidence of
extreme events, attributed to climate change, and their
impacts on agriculture and food security. Despite
some limitations, perception based data are useful
for determining if they correspond with the findings
of scientific studies, which are down-scaled at least
at basin level.
Findings
Socioeconomic characteristics of households
The four river basins differ from each other in terms of
s o c i o e c o n o m i c c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s ( Ta b l e s 1 a n d 2 ) .
Household size is greatest in the Upper Indus (UI) and
least in Salween and Mekong (SM) (Table 1), perhaps
reflecting China’s one-child policy
(Riley 2004; Ge
et al. 2012)
. On the other hand, in Pakistan, family
planning strategies, due mainly to religious and cultural
factors, have not imposed a strict family size
(Zulfiqar &
Hussain 2014)
. In all sub-basins, households are mainly
headed by male members (Table 1). The proportion of
male and female members within households is almost
equal. In SM, household heads are mainly literate,
conversely in UI, around 46 % household heads are illiterate.
Dependency ratio in Koshi and Eastern Brahmaputra (EB)
is nearly 60 %. Dependency ratio is highest in UI and
least in SM (Table 1). The majority of households in all
four sub-basins (SBs) have access to land for agricultural
activities. More than 95 % households own agricultural
land except those in SM where only 11 % farming
households have ownership rights (Table 1) because most of the
agriculture land is owned by local government
(Keliang
and Prosterman 2007)
. Further background details of the
four SBs are given in Table 2.
Farming systems in sub-basins
Farming households in SBs are mainly smallholders who
practise mixed farming systems, consisting of crops, fruit
and livestock (Tables 3 and 4). In SM and UI, a substantial
proportion of agricultural land is under fruit and tree
orchards. In UI, more than one-fourth of households’
agricultural land has been turned into pasture and
grassland, possibly due to frequent agricultural labor shortage
(Table 1). It may also be one of the reasons for the 3–
5 % fallow agricultural land in Koshi and EB basins, as
reported elsewhere
(Ghimire and Thakur 2014)
. In
Koshi and EB, around 80 % of the land is under the
cultivation of crops. In all four sub-basins, minor plots are
transformed into kitchen gardens, e.g. in EB around 10 % of
average household land are kitchen gardens. Among the SBs,
the UI has the highest percentage (99.9 %) of farm households
with access to irrigation systems, whereas EB has the least
(16.8 %) (Table 1).
Almost all farming households in UI and Koshi cultivate
staple crops including cereals and vegetables (Table 3).
Likewise in EB and SM, more than 90 % of farming
households cultivate staple crops. In SM, nearly 68 % farming
households cultivate cash crops, whereas in the other three
SBs, fewer than half of the households cultivate cash crops.
Choices of particular crops - both staple and cash - differ
across countries owing to differences in agro-ecological
potential and market factors
(Pan et al. 2010)
. In UI,
among the households who grow staple crops, 55 %
grow wheat, which is the main staple crop, not only
in the study area but also in other regions of Pakistan
(Zulfiqar & Hussain, 2014)
. Farming households also
prefer to cultivate summer potato and other vegetables,
apple and summer maize as staple crops. Among those
households who grow cash crops in UI, summer potato
is the first choice due to suitability of local conditions
for its cultivation and its local as well as external
demand from downstream areas
(Rasul & Hussain 2015)
.
A significant proportion of households also produce
fruits such as apple, cherries, apricot and walnut to
generate income (Table 3).
In Koshi and EB, paddy is the main staple crop, followed
by other cereals in Koshi and vegetables in EB. Similar to UI,
summer potato is the main cash crop in Koshi. Instead of
fruits, in Koshi vegetables are the next choices of farmers
for cash crops. In Koshi, one-quarter of farming households
cultivate mustard as a staple crop while one-third of EB
households cultivate it as a cash crop. A significant proportion of
households also prefer tea, ginger and jute as cash crops
(Table 3). In SM, summer maize is the main staple crop,
followed by other cereals and vegetables. In this SB, around
40 % of farming households prefer to grow walnut and tea as
cash crops. Among other cash crops, garlic, tobacco and
a (HH members below 14 & above 64yrs . of age/Economically active members aged 15 ‐ 64 yrs.) × 100
b computed among those who have access to agricultural land
c computed among households who own agricultural land; d calculated among households who own livestock
Source: ICIMOD Survey 2011–12
sugarcane are also very important income generating
choices. Among all SBs, income from the sales of
staple and cash crops in SM are significantly higher due to
good market connectivity and long-run integration
(Park
2008; Laping 2006)
. Among other SBs, UI is slightly
better compared to Koshi and EB in terms of income
generated income from crops, whereas EB has the least
returns (Table 3).
Similar to other mountain regions, households in the study
SBs raise livestock to support their food security and
livelihoods. In UI and Koshi, more than 80 % households own
livestock. Also in EB and SM, a substantial proportion of
households raise livestock (Table 4). Among the livestock
raising households, a substantial proportion of the households
in UI, Koshi and EB raise cattle and goats, whereas in SM
most of the households prefer to raise pigs. In Koshi more than
half of the households raise buffalo, whereas in other SBs,
only a small proportion of households prefer to do this. In
UI, more than half of livestock raising households raise sheep
(Table 4), which is in line with the higher transhumant
activities in this SB (Table 1). Moreover, sheep are more resilient to
water and fodder/forage-stress but can have negative
longterm environmental impacts on pastures and rangelands
(Shafiq & Kakar 2007)
. In all SBs, households also raise
poultry, ducks and pigeons for home consumption as well as
sale. However, bird raising is significantly higher in EB and
SM. Fish catching and farming practices are prominent only in
EB compared to other SBs.
Households’ perception of climate change
The majority of households in all four SBs perceived that
climate has been changing over the last 10 years (Fig. 2). In
UI, among those households who perceived changes in
climate, the majority reported the greater frequency of floods in
their area. A significant proportion of the households also
reported that they observed certain changes in rainfall patterns
and temperature. Moreover, one-fifth of households faced
landslides and erosion triggered by heavy rainfall and floods
(Fig. 3).
Manzoor et al. (2013)
also revealed that after 2000–
01, frequency and magnitude of floods in UI has increased due
to intense rainfall in the Indus catchments and are occasionally
increased by snowmelt.
In Koshi, changes in rainfall patterns were reported by
more than half of the surveyed households. In this SB,
households perceived that decrease in annual rainfall has resulted in
prolonged dry spells and droughts. In addition, they also
perceived an increase in temperature and incidence of livestock
diseases over time (Fig. 4).
Bharati et al. (2012)
projected a
0.79–0.86 °C rise in temperature in the 2030s for the Koshi
Basin compared to a baseline average over 1976–2005.
Increased temperature leads to greater evaporation and thus
surface drying, increasing the intensity and duration of
drought
(Devkota and Gyawali 2015)
.
In the EB, incidence of drought, flood and erratic rainfall
have increased, and the majority of households also observed
a rise in temperature (Fig. 5). More than 55 % households
reported that incidence of livestock diseases had also
increased in their areas. This is consistent with other studies
(Sirohi and Michaelowa 2007; Singh et al. 2000; Basu and
Bandhyopadhyay 2004)
where changes in temperature,
rainfall patterns and humidity were directly related to increased
incidences of livestock diseases.
Similar to other SBs, in SM around 47 % households
reported that they observed frequent dry spells and
droughts in their areas (Fig. 6). A significant proportion
of households also observed a rise in the incidence of
erratic rainfall, temperature rise and crop pests. SM is
the only SB where households have reported an increase
in crop pests over time, which was attributed to climate
change (Fig. 6). This is understandable because changes
in temperature, timings of seasons and rainfall patterns
may lead to increased populations of weeds in grasslands,
and incidences of pests and diseases of grasses and crops
(Sirohi and Michaelowa 2007)
.
Fig. 2 Households (%) who
perceived an increase in climate
induced extreme events in the last
10 years
%50
100
90
80
70
60
40
30
20
10
0
Upper Indus
(Pakistan)
Note: Climate induced extreme events include flood, erratic rainfall, high and low temperature extremes,
landslides/erosions, dry spells, droughts, livestock diseases and crop pests.
In addition to climate change, outmigration is the most
prominent socioeconomic change observed in all four SBs.
Outmigration from EB is relatively low compared to other
SBs (Table 5). In UI and SM, migration to other parts of the
country is higher than the overseas migration. However, in
Koshi, overseas migration is higher than within country
migration. Among the migrant sending households in Koshi,
more than 74 % of households receive remittances, whereas
in UI and EB, 55 % and 58 % households receive remittances,
respectively. Despite the higher outmigration (40 %) in SM,
only one-fifth of migrant sending households receive
remittances (Table 5) due possibly to reasonable income from
agriculture (Table 3), lessening the need for them.
Impacts of changes in agricultural production
In SBs, farmers’ timely and adequate access to water has
become a challenge. Irregular precipitation patterns, attributed to
climate change, have caused severe impacts on livelihoods of
millions of vulnerable people
(Chen et al. 2013)
. Rural
Fig. 4 Households’ perception:
Top five climate induced events in
Koshi, sub-basin (Nepal)
Livestock disease
High temperature
Dry spell
Drought
Erratic rainfall
10 20 30 40 50 60 70
% households who reported the particular event
(computed among HHs who reported climatic changes in last 10 years)
communities in hills and mountains are experiencing
substantial impacts on water resources due to prolonged dry seasons.
UI has experienced erratic rainfalls and floods (Fig. 2),
whereas in the other three SBs, temperature rise, frequent dry spells
and droughts have been observed (Figs. 3, 4 and 5). Irregular
changes in rainfall patterns may have impacts on water
availability, particularly in EB where over 80 % of agricultural land
is rain-fed (Table 1).
Despite advances in agricultural technology and inputs, a
significant proportion of households reported a decline in the
production of their crops over the last 10 years. This decline in
production may be attributed to climate change. In UI, the
majority of crop growing households reported that production
of main staple crops such as wheat and summer potato has
decreased over time (Table 6). In Koshi, the majority of
households reported that the production of summer maize, millet
and mustard has decreased. In EB, changes in climatic events
have caused relatively more severe impacts on production.
Households perceived that production of all staple crops and
most cash crops had declined (Table 6). In SM, as perceived
0
10 20 30 40 50 60
% households who reported the particular event
(computed among HHs who reported climatic changes in last 10 years)
Fig. 5 Households’ perception:
Top five climate induced events in
Eastern Brahmaputra,
subbasin (India)
by the majority of particular crop growers, production of some
staples, i.e. wheat and maize has decreased in the last 10 years.
Some opportunities are also arising for farming households.
For instance, in UI, a substantial proportion of households
reported an increase in the production of summer vegetables
and fruits such as apple, cherries, apricots and walnuts.
Likewise, a significant proportion of households reported an
increase in the production of summer potato, onion and
vegetables in Koshi, tea in EB, and walnut, tea, garlic, tobacco
and sugarcane in SM.
Inflow of remittances from out-migrants is undoubtedly a
potential source for improving local food security and
livelihoods through enhancing local small businesses, transferring
new technologies, and creating job opportunities for local
skilled and unskilled labor. But outmigration has also added
to the challenges in mountain areas. Increased outmigration
and decreased interest of the youth in farming also add to the
low production in agriculture
(Rasul et al. 2014)
. Households
in all four SBs face frequent labor shortages, which together
with water shortages is leading to increased amounts of fallow
agricultural land (Table 1).
0
10 20 30 40 50 60
% households who reported the particular event
(computed among HHs who reported climatic changes in last 10 years)
70
Adaptation to climate change
For adaptation to climate change, households have adopted
various practices, which improve their resilience. Those
households which perceived changes in climate were asked
to report their adaptation practices during the survey. In UI,
almost one-fifth of households changed their farming
practices and introduced new crops (Table 7). Changes in farming
practices include water conservation methods, change in
sowing time and introduction of new crops, such as fruits and nuts,
which are relatively more resilient to water-stress and have
higher market value
(IFAD 2015)
. Some areas such as
Broghil top in Chitral and Deo Sai in Gilgit-Baltistan, which
were not suitable for crop cultivation due to their harsh
climates, are now under vegetable cultivation. During summer
months, these areas do not have snow cover anymore.
Therefore, local communities have started growing winter
vegetables (i.e. potato, peas etc.) during the summer
(Rasul
et al. 2014)
. More than 16 % households gave up the rearing
of certain livestock (Table 7). In UI, climate change has
resulted in significant degradation of pastures and rangelands,
Fig. 6 Households’ perception:
Top five climate induced events in
Salween and Mekong,
subbasin (China)
0
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
% households who reported the particular event
(computed among HHs who reported climatic changes in last 10 years)
50
which are free sources of grazing for almost 80 % of livestock
in the SBs
(Khan et al. 2013)
. Since sheep and the larger
animals consume more fodder and water, as a coping strategy,
livestock owners are more likely to reduce the number of the
larger animals and sheep, and increase the number of local
goats (Table 4). Local breeds of goats are more resilient to
water and fodder/forage-stress, as revealed by a study done
in Balochistan province of Paksitan
(Shafiq & Kakar 2007)
. In
Salween &
Mekong (China)
Changes in crop production are average trends perceived by households in last 10 years
Source: ICIMOD Survey 2011–12
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addition to adaptation practices in crops and livestock, 10 % of
households also invested in disaster preparedness practices,
e.g. construction of sheds and shelter for livestock and family
members.
In Koshi, around 18 % of households gave up
planting crops which were highly vulnerable to water stress
(e.g. paddy). Around 15 % households introduced new
crops on their farms (Table 7). In Nepal, farmers are
shifting their cropping patterns from highly water
consumptive crops (i.e. paddy) to fruits and vegetables
which are high value crops
(Gurung and Bhandari
2009; GWP-JVS 2014: p.21, Dixit et al. 2009)
. A small
proportion of households also changed their farming
practices (Table 7). These changes included slight shifts
in timing of crop cultivation, exploring improved
varieties of seed and use of different agriculture practices
requiring less water
(Bhatta et al. 2015)
. Around 8–
9 % of households either gave up rearing certain
livestock or changed their grazing practices (Table 7).
Compared to other SBs, in EB fewer households
adopted new farming practices to cope with the impacts
of climate change. Rather over 10 % of them started
new off-farm income activities to support their food
security and livelihoods (Table 7) because of high
vulnerability to floods and low agricultural production
(Saikia 2012; Sarkar et al. 2012)
. Only 5–10 %
households changed their farming practices and cropping
choices, whereas almost 7 % invested in some disaster
preparedness practices (Table 7).
In SM, more than one-fifth of households were those who
sent at least one member of the family to work either in other
parts of the country or overseas as a coping strategy (Table 7). In
addition to changes in farming practices and crop choices,
investments in advanced irrigation technology have been made by 11–
12 % households. The Chinese government is also promoting
investment in the construction of water collection and utilization
engineering in hill and mountain areas
(GoPRC 2007)
.
Agricultural income and household food consumption
Traditionally, agriculture is assumed to contribute to the food
security and livelihoods of households in the mountains through
providing diverse foods and contributing to household income.
However, due to increasing climatic vulnerabilities and market
uncertainties, the contribution of agriculture to household
income has significantly decreased over time
(ISET 2008)
. In all
SBs, the majority of households reported that agriculture and
livestock were sources of their income. However, they are main
sources of income for only a small proportion of households
(Table 8) due mainly to declining productivity resulting from
climatic hazards and labor shortages.
Although farm production contributes to household food
consumption, yet the local people have to buy several other
food items from the market due to declining productivity
and diversity in mountain agriculture. In Koshi, farm
production is the main source of food for almost half of the
households (Fig. 7). In EB and SM, home production is the
main contributor to food consumption for 23 % and 38 %
households, respectively. In the UI, only 10 % households
reported that home production is the main source of their
food requirements (Fig. 7). In all four SBs, households are
heavily dependent on external sources of food such as stores
and markets where food items are mostly supplied from
downstream plain areas. It is also evident from food
expenditure data in three SBs, i.e. UI, Koshi and EB, more than
half of household monthly expenditure was spent on food
items, whereas in SM, the share of food expenditure was
40 % (Fig. 8). The supply of food items from downstream
areas is likely to be limited, particularly after hazards such as
Fig. 7 Households’ food sources
Income Sources
Agriculture
Livestock
Agriculture
Livestock
Daily wage
Salaried employment
Other business/trade income
Remittances
No one major source
landslides blocking roads
(Andersen et al. 2005;
MoHPNepal 2012)
.
Food security strategies in the time of environmental
shocks
While agriculture remains an important contributor to household
food security in mountainous areas, non-agriculture sources such
as daily wage, salaried employment, small businesses and
remittances, are becoming increasingly important to sustaining
livelihoods, especially for households with small landholdings
(Rasul
et al. 2014; Bhandari and Grant 2007)
. When environmental
shocks occur such as floods, prolonged dry spells, drought or
erratic rainfall, most farming households in the SBs face
transitory food insecurity due to damage to their farming systems and
other livelihood sources. In the UI and SM, 86 % and 91 %
Fig. 8 Monthly food and
nonfood expenditures
100
households, respectively, reported that they had faced at least one
shock in the 12 months prior to the survey, whereas in Koshi and
EB, almost all households faced this situation (Table 9).
Households adopt various strategies to reduce the impact of
shocks on household food security. In the UI, one-fifth of
households reported that they replaced expensive food items with the
cheaper ones and about the same proportion borrowed money
from relatives. Almost 14 % of households reduced their
spending on clothing, whereas 10 % made changes in their farming
practices, growing crops which take less time to harvest.
In Koshi and EB four out of five and three out of five
strategies, respectively, to combat shocks threatening food supply
involved borrowing money from different sources (Table 9).
Those who did not borrow money bought food on credit from
local shopkeepers or stores, sold livestock or reduced spending
on clothing. Incurring debts as a coping strategy to obtain food
or non-food items may be effective in the short term but debts
may increase in the long term, negatively affecting community
resilience and sustainable food security
(Milbert 2009)
. In the
SM, in addition to borrowing money, 21 % sought work outside
the community, 18 % within the community, 19 % of adults
restricted their consumption and 16 % spent savings on food.
Conclusions
In four river sub-basins (SBs) of the Hindu-Kush Himalayan
region (HKH), i.e. Upper Indus (UI), Koshi, Eastern
Brahmaputra (EB), and Salween and Mekong (SM), households
perceived that increased incidences of natural hazards such as
floods, droughts, landslides, livestock diseases, crop pests, erratic
rainfall and temperature extremes, attributed to climate change,
were significantly influencing agricultural production, income
and household food security. Increased rates of out-migration
have also resulted in labor shortages in agriculture, possibly
adding to a decline in productivity, food availability and farm
income. Traditionally, agriculture is assumed to contribute to the
food security and livelihoods of households in the mountains
through providing diverse food and contributing to household
income. However, due to increasing vulnerabilities, the
contribution of agriculture in household food consumption and
household income has significantly decreased over time. Particularly
in EB, the majority of farm households reported a notable decline
in the production of almost all staple and cash crops, resulting in
the least farm income compared to other SBs. Due to decreased
food production, households’ dependency on external food items
supplied from downstream plain areas is increasing. Although
agriculture and livestock are contributing to the income of a
substantial proportion of households in SBs, yet these are no
longer the main sources of income for the majority of
households. Generally, in SBs, households have to rely on
nonagricultural income sources to buy expensive food and
nonfood items, supplied from plain areas.
To cope with the climate change risks, households have
adopted various strategies. These include changes in farming
practices such as the introduction of new resilient crops,
abandoning certain highly water consuming crops and giving
up rearing certain livestock, which are vulnerable to water and
fodder stress. In addition, households in UI and EB invested in
preparedness for hazards such as floods and landslides, and in
Koshi they made changes in livestock grazing practices to
avoid excessive degradation of pastures and rangelands. In
EB, a notable proportion of households took on new
offfarm activities due to the increased vulnerability of
agriculture. One-fourth of households in SM decided to migrate as an
adaptation measure, either to other areas of China or overseas
to find off-farm income opportunities. Households in this SB
also invested in irrigation to cope with water stress.
)
l
a
p
e
N
(
i
h
s
o
K
Although SBs have invested in adaptation practices to
mitigate extreme climate events attributed to climate change,
households in these areas still face transitory food insecurity when
hazards, such as floods, landslides and droughts strike, owing
to their effects on farming systems and other livelihood
activities.
In view of this study’s findings, the following policies are
suggested in order to achieve sustainable food security in
mountainous areas subject to extremes of climate.
& Governments need to establish separate food security policies
for mountains and plains because mountains are different
from plains in terms of nature, type and magnitude of
vulnerabilities. There is also a need to re-evaluate agricultural
policies under the projected changes in climatic conditions
(Lu
et al. 2012)
. Some current policies appear to be inappropriate.
For example, the Nepalese government promotes cultivation
of rice and pulses in mountainous areas, although these crops
are resource-intensive and very sensitive to water stress.
& Climate change has also brought some opportunities,
which are not adequately capitalized. For instance, In UI,
a substantial proportion of households observed an
increase in the production of summer vegetables and fruits
such as apple, cherries, apricots and walnuts over the
10 years. Likewise, a significant proportion of households
reported an increase in the production of summer potato,
onion and vegetables in Koshi, tea in EB, and walnut, tea,
garlic, tobacco and sugarcane in SM. National and
subnational planning processes should take into account such
rising opportunities while preparing strategies to achieve
sustainable food security in the SBs.
& Government and non-government experts in HKH
countries need to identify the specific zones within the SBs with
higher agro-ecological potential for specific high value
crops such as fruits, nuts, vegetables, tea, tobacco and other
cash crops. Strategies may focus on exploiting the existing
potential through land use intensification, efficient water
use, integration of livestock and crop diversification.
& Areas having less agro-ecological potential and that
are highly vulnerable to hazards may be encouraged
not to pursue agricultural activities. In such areas,
strategies may focus on the subsistence use of
resources, ecotourism and non-agricultural enterprises
to reduce the dependence on local resources and
ensure food security.
& Governments should encourage private investment in
production and post-harvest facilities. There is also a need to
improve accessibility to institutional services (i.e. roads,
markets, extension services and technology
(Rasul et al.
2014)
. Capitalizing on local potential and opportunities
will also help to control out-migration, excessive
switching to the non-farm sector and frequent labor
shortages in agriculture.
Future research
This is a descriptive study of local perceptions of climate
change, its attributable impacts on agriculture and food security,
and local adaptive measures. In short, this study is a situation
analysis of food security and climate change linkages in the
study areas. It is hoped that it will provide a good platform for
researchers to design and conduct empirical studies in the same
areas to further understand the key factors of vulnerability and
adaptation to climate change, and to establish different adaptive
measures to achieve food security in the face of climate change.
Acknowledgments This study has been accomplished under the
Himalayan Climate Change Adaptation Programme (HICAP) which is
implemented jointly by International Centre for Integrated Mountain
Development (ICIMOD), CICERO, and Grid-Arendal in four
HinduKush Himalayan (HKH) countries, i.e. Pakistan, China, Nepal and
India. The HICAP is funded by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs,
Norway, and Swedish International Development Agency (Sida). The
authors also gratefully acknowledge the support of core donors of
ICIMOD: the Governments of Afghanistan, Australia, Austria,
Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Norway, Pakistan,
Switzerland and the United Kingdom. The views and interpretations in
this publication are those of the authors and are not necessarily
attributable to ICIMOD.
Open Access This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative
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creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use,
distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give
appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the
Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.
Dr. Abid Hussain a Pakistani
national, joined the International
Centre for Integrated Mountain
Development (ICIMOD), Nepal,
in December 2013 as a Food
Security Economist. Prior to joining
ICIMOD, he served as Assistant
Professor at the Department of
Economics in the University of
Haripur, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa,
Pakistan. He also served in the
same position in the Department
of Economics and Agricultural
Economics at Pir Mehr Ali Shah
Arid Agriculture University,
Rawalpindi, Pakistan. He was responsible for teaching advanced economics
courses to MPhil and PhD students. He also supervised the research of
postgraduate students who were mainly working in the areas of agriculture and
food security, energy conservation and women empowerment. Dr. Hussain
holds a PhD in Regional and Rural Development Planning (RRDP) from
the Asian Institute of Technology (AIT), Thailand, from which he had earlier
earned a Master degree in RRDP. Dr Hussain also has a bachelor’s degree in
Agricultural Economics from the University of Agriculture, Faisalabad (UAF),
Pakistan. Dr. Hussain has been working on food security and poverty issues for
more than six years in different capacities in different organizations. His areas
of expertise include food and nutrition security, agricultural credit, poverty,
smallholder farming, and conservation agriculture. His research findings have
been published in reputable international journals.
Himalayan region. His research findings have been published in many
international journals and four of his papers have appeared as ‘most read papers’ in
their respective journals in Science Direct.
Ms. Sabarnee Tuladhar is
working as a Research Associate–
Statistics at the International Centre
f o r I n t e g r a t e d M o u n t a i n
Development (ICIMOD). She has
almost 4-years’ experience on
framing data collection, cleaning and
analysis tools. Recently, she has
been working on a Poverty and
Vulnerability Assessment (PVA)
tool with a focus on climate change.
She holds a Master Degree in
I n t e r n a t i o n a l D e v e l o p m e n t
and Environmental Analysis from
Monash University, Australia.
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