A New Quantitative Method for Studying the Vulnerability of Civil Aviation Network System to Spatially Localized Hazards

International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, Sep 2016

As an important infrastructure system, civil aviation network system can be severely affected by natural hazards. Although a natural hazard is usually local, its impact, through the network topology, can become global. Inspired by Wilkinson’s work in 2012, this article proposes a new quantitative spatial vulnerability model for network systems, which emphasizes the spreading impact of spatially localized hazards on these systems. This model considers hazard location and area covered by a hazard, and spatially spreading impact of the hazard (including direct impact and indirect impact through network topology) and proposes an absolute spatial vulnerability index and a relative spatial vulnerability index to reflect the vulnerability of a network system to local hazards. The model is then applied to study the spatial vulnerability of the Chinese civil aviation network system. The simulation results show that (1) the proposed model is effective and useful to study spatial vulnerability of civil aviation network systems as the results well explain the general situation of the Chinese civil aviation system; and (2) the Chinese civil aviation network system is highly vulnerable to local hazards when indirect impacts through network connections are considered.

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A New Quantitative Method for Studying the Vulnerability of Civil Aviation Network System to Spatially Localized Hazards

Int J Disaster Risk Sci A New Quantitative Method for Studying the Vulnerability of Civil Aviation Network System to Spatially Localized Hazards Hang Li 0 1 2 3 Xiao-Bing Hu 0 1 2 3 Xiaomei Guo 0 1 2 3 Zhen Xu 0 1 2 3 P. H. A. J. M. van Gelder 0 1 2 3 0 Faculty of Technology , Policy and Management , Delft University of Technology , Delft , The Netherlands 1 State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University , Beijing 100875 , China 2 Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University , Beijing 100875 , China 3 School of Engineering, University of Warwick , Coventry , UK As an important infrastructure system, civil aviation network system can be severely affected by natural hazards. Although a natural hazard is usually local, its impact, through the network topology, can become global. Inspired by Wilkinson's work in 2012, this article proposes a new quantitative spatial vulnerability model for network systems, which emphasizes the spreading impact of spatially localized hazards on these systems. This model considers hazard location and area covered by a hazard, and spatially spreading impact of the hazard (including direct impact and indirect impact through network topology) and proposes an absolute spatial vulnerability index and a relative spatial vulnerability index to reflect the vulnerability of a network system to local hazards. The model is then applied to study the spatial vulnerability of the Chinese civil aviation network system. The simulation results show that (1) the proposed model is effective and useful to study spatial vulnerability of civil aviation network systems as the results well explain the general situation of the Chinese civil aviation system; and (2) the Chinese civil aviation network system is highly vulnerable to local hazards when indirect impacts through network connections are considered. Civil aviation; Network system localized hazards; Vulnerability; Spatially 1 Introduction Civil aviation, as an advanced transportation mode, is not only closely linked with our daily life, but also significantly important for the economic development of countries and regions. According to the 2013 Annual Report of the International Civil Aviation Organization Council (ICAO 2014) , the number of world air passengers reached 3.1 billion, air freight (expressed as freight ton-kilometer performed) rose to approximately 49.3 million tons, and net profit of the world air transport reached USD 181 billion in 2013. As an important sector of the economy, civil aviation system has become a crucial infrastructure system supporting the modernization of economies and societies and promoting the development of various other related industries, such as tourism, trade, and logistics. However, in the context of global climate change, the sustainable development of the world civil aviation industry is facing increasingly more severe challenges imposed by frequent natural hazards, especially meteorological hazards. Generally, these hazards are spatially restricted, so we use the term ‘‘spatially localized hazards’’ in this article. Spatially localized hazards, such as torrential rain, typhoon, snowstorm, and dust storm, may directly result in closure of airports and routes, damage airport and en-route navigation equipment/facilities, cause severe flight delays, and lead to aviation accidents and even catastrophes. For example, the 2010 eruption of the Eyjafjallajokull Volcano in Iceland resulted in the closures of European airports and routes at a very large scale, causing more than 10 million passenger delays (Mazzocchi et al. 2010) . Civil aviation system, as a network system, may be globally influenced by such spatially localized hazards, as negative effects of the hazards can spread along flight routes between airports in the system. For example, as shown in Fig. 1, assuming a local hazard happens in a simplified civil aviation network system, where Airport 1 is directly affected by the hazard. As Airport 2 has flights from/to Airport 1, it will be disturbed indirectly by the hazard because flights between Airport 2 and Airport 1 may not take off on time or be forced to cancel. Although Airport 3 has no direct flights from/to Airport 1, it may also be impacted indirectly because Airport 3 has flights from/to Airport 2, which are likely to be affected by the delays or cancelation of flights between Airport 1 and Airport 2. Finally, the whole system is affected by the hazard. Therefore, it is important to study the impacts of local hazards on civil aviation network system. Vulnerability is an important concept to assess the performance of a system in the presence of hazards. At present, studies on the vulnerability of civil aviation network system are concentrated in the field of system science. Researchers mainly apply complex network theories to study the performances and characteristics of different network topologies (...truncated)


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Hang Li, Xiao-Bing Hu, Xiaomei Guo, Zhen Xu, P. H. A. J. M. van Gelder. A New Quantitative Method for Studying the Vulnerability of Civil Aviation Network System to Spatially Localized Hazards, International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2016, pp. 245-256, Volume 7, Issue 3, DOI: 10.1007/s13753-016-0098-1