Identifying Where REDD+ Financially Out-Competes Oil Palm in Floodplain Landscapes Using a Fine-Scale Approach

PLOS ONE, Dec 2019

Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) aims to avoid forest conversion to alternative land-uses through financial incentives. Oil-palm has high opportunity costs, which according to current literature questions the financial competitiveness of REDD+ in tropical lowlands. To understand this more, we undertook regional fine-scale and coarse-scale analyses (through carbon mapping and economic modelling) to assess the financial viability of REDD+ in safeguarding unprotected forest (30,173 ha) in the Lower Kinabatangan floodplain in Malaysian Borneo. Results estimate 4.7 million metric tons of carbon (MgC) in unprotected forest, with 64% allocated for oil-palm cultivations. Through fine-scale mapping and carbon accounting, we demonstrated that REDD+ can outcompete oil-palm in regions with low suitability, with low carbon prices and low carbon stock. In areas with medium oil-palm suitability, REDD+ could outcompete oil palm in areas with: very high carbon and lower carbon price; medium carbon price and average carbon stock; or, low carbon stock and high carbon price. Areas with high oil palm suitability, REDD+ could only outcompete with higher carbon price and higher carbon stock. In the coarse-scale model, oil-palm outcompeted REDD+ in all cases. For the fine-scale models at the landscape level, low carbon offset prices (US $3 MgCO2e) would enable REDD+ to outcompete oil-palm in 55% of the unprotected forests requiring US $27 million to secure these areas for 25 years. Higher carbon offset price (US $30 MgCO2e) would increase the competitiveness of REDD+ within the landscape but would still only capture between 69%-74% of the unprotected forest, requiring US $380–416 million in carbon financing. REDD+ has been identified as a strategy to mitigate climate change by many countries (including Malaysia). Although REDD+ in certain scenarios cannot outcompete oil palm, this research contributes to the global REDD+ debate by: highlighting REDD+ competitiveness in tropical floodplain landscapes; and, providing a robust approach for identifying and targeting limited REDD+ funds.

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Identifying Where REDD+ Financially Out-Competes Oil Palm in Floodplain Landscapes Using a Fine-Scale Approach

June Identifying Where REDD+ Financially Out- Competes Oil Palm in Floodplain Landscapes Using a Fine-Scale Approach Nicola K. Abram 0 1 Douglas C. MacMillan 1 Panteleimon Xofis 1 Marc Ancrenaz 1 Joseph Tzanopoulos 1 Robert Ong 1 Benoit Goossens 1 Lian Pin Koh 1 Christian Del Valle 1 Lucy Peter 1 Alexandra C. Morel 1 Isabelle Lackman 1 Robin Chung 1 Harjinder Kler 1 Laurentius Ambu 1 William Baya 1 Andrew T. Knight 1 0 Living Landscape Alliance , 110 Maui Court, Waikiki Condominium, Jalan Aru, Tanjung Aru, 88100, Kota Kinabalu, Sabah , Malaysia , 2 ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions, University of Queensland , Brisbane, QLD 4072 , Australia , 3 HUTAN/Kinabatangan Orang-utan Conservation Programme , 88874, Kota Kinabalu, Sabah , Malaysia , 4 Durrell Institute for Conservation and Ecology, School of Anthropology and Conservation , Marlowe Building , University of Kent , Canterbury, Kent , United Kingdom , 5 Borneo Futures initiative, Ciputat, 15412, Jakarta , Indonesia , 6 Department of Forestry and Management of Natural Environment, Technological Education Institute of Kavala , GR 61100, Drama , Greece , 7 North England Zoological Society, Research Fellow, Chester, United Kingdom, 8 Sabah Wildlife Department , Wisma Muis, 88100, Kota Kinabalu, Sabah , Malaysia , 9 Forest Research Centre, Sabah Forestry Department , P.O. Box 1407, 90715, Sandakan, Sabah , Malaysia , 10 Danau Girang Field Centre, c/ o Sabah Wildlife Department , Wisma Muis, 88100, Kota Kinabalu, Sabah , Malaysia , 11 Organisms and Environment Division, School of Biosciences, Cardiff University , Sir Martin Evans Building, Museum Avenue, Cardiff, CF10 3AX , United Kingdom , 12 School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Adelaide , Adelaide, South Australia, 5005 , Australia , 13 Althelia ecosphere, Ecosphere Capital Limited, 1 Lumley Street, London, W1K 6TT , United Kingdom , 14 School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford , Oxford, OX1 3QY , United Kingdom , 15 C H Williams, Talhar and Wong (Sabah) Sdn Bhd, 90715, Sandakan, Sabah, Malaysia, 16 Borneo Conservation Trust, 5th Floor, Block B, Wisma Muis, 88100, Kota Kinabalu, Sabah , Malaysia , 17 Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London , Silwood Park Campus, Buckhurst Road, Ascot, Berkshire, SL5 7PY , United Kingdom , 18 Department of Botany, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University , P.O. Box 77000, Port Elizabeth, 6031, Eastern Cape , South Africa 1 Editor: Sarah C. Davis, Ohio University , UNITED STATES Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) aims to avoid forest conversion to alternative land-uses through financial incentives. Oil-palm has high opportunity costs, which according to current literature questions the financial competitiveness of REDD+ in tropical lowlands. To understand this more, we undertook regional finescale and coarse-scale analyses (through carbon mapping and economic modelling) to assess the financial viability of REDD+ in safeguarding unprotected forest (30,173 ha) in - OPEN ACCESS Data Availability Statement: Data used within the economic models are contained within the excel sheets of the papers Supporting Information files (S1 File and S2 File). Funding: NKA would like to thank RICS Research Trust, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's Great Ape Fund and The Arcus Foundation (part of a larger study for the Borneo Futures initiative) for financial support; Planet Action and Trimble for providing satellite imagery and the Definiens eCognition Licence. These funders provided support either financial or in-kind support in the form of a PhD the Lower Kinabatangan floodplain in Malaysian Borneo. Results estimate 4.7 million metric tons of carbon (MgC) in unprotected forest, with 64% allocated for oil-palm cultivations. Through fine-scale mapping and carbon accounting, we demonstrated that REDD+ can out compete oil-palm in regions with low suitability, with low carbon prices and low carbon stock. In areas with medium oil-palm suitability, REDD+ could outcompete oil palm in areas with: very high carbon and lower carbon price; medium carbon price and average carbon stock; or, low carbon stock and high carbon price. Areas with high oil palm suitability, REDD + could only outcompete with higher carbon price and higher carbon stock. In the coarsestipend, and/or project costs for lead author NKA, or software licenses/satellite imagery for this research. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. ATK acknowledges support from the Department of Life Sciences at Imperial College London (UK), and ARC Centre of Excellence in Environmental Decisions, University of Queensland (Australia) for salary contribution. The specific roles of authors are articulated in the ‘author contributions’ section. HUTAN/Kinabatangan Orangutan Conservation Programme [MA, HK, IL], Althelia ecosphere, Ecosphere Capital Limited [CDV] a (...truncated)


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Nicola K. Abram, Douglas C. MacMillan, Panteleimon Xofis, Marc Ancrenaz, Joseph Tzanopoulos, Robert Ong, Benoit Goossens, Lian Pin Koh, Christian Del Valle, Lucy Peter, Alexandra C. Morel, Isabelle Lackman, Robin Chung, Harjinder Kler, Laurentius Ambu, William Baya, Andrew T. Knight. Identifying Where REDD+ Financially Out-Competes Oil Palm in Floodplain Landscapes Using a Fine-Scale Approach, PLOS ONE, 2016, Volume 11, Issue 6, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0156481