Assessing the Risk of Atrocity Crimes

Genocide Studies and Prevention: An International Journal, Feb 2016

By Adama Dieng and Jennifer Welsh, Published on 02/01/16

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Assessing the Risk of Atrocity Crimes

Adama Dieng and Jennifer Welsh, “Assessing the Risk of Atrocity Crimes” Genocide Studies and Prevention Assessing the Risk of Atrocity Crimes Adama Dieng United Nations Special Adviser on the Responsibility to Protect - Adama Dieng United Nations Special Adviser on the Prevention of Genocide Background The Framework of Analysis for Atrocity Crimes is a tool developed by the United Nations Office on Genocide Prevention and the Responsibility to Protect to guide the assessment of the risk of atrocity crimes1 worldwide. This document builds upon the previous Framework of Analysis for the risk of genocide that was developed in 2009 by the then United Nations Office of the Special Adviser on the Prevention of Genocide, in order to fulfil its early warning mandate. That tool was based on the foundation laid by former United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan when he launched his plan of action to prevent genocide in April 2004. In the Secretary-General’s words on that occasion: If we are serious about preventing or stopping genocide in the future, we must not be held back by legalistic arguments about whether a particular atrocity meets the definition of genocide or not. By the time we are certain, it may often be too late to act. We must recognize the signs of approaching or possible genocide, so that we can act in time to avert it. We badly need clear guidelines on how to identify such extreme cases and how to react to them. Such guidelines would ensure that we have no excuse to ignore a real danger of genocide when it does arise. The initial framework of analysis for the prevention of genocide became obsolete when, in 2010, the Secretary-General decided to link the complementary mandates of the Special Advisers on the Prevention of Genocide and on the Responsibility to Protect through a joint office. Since then, the early warning work undertaken by this office has covered the risk not only of genocide but also of war crimes, ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity. The present Framework thus provides an integrated analysis and risk assessment tool for genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity. The revision also reflects recent developments and new research into the processes that lead to these crimes. It was subject to consultations within and outside the United Nations system for a period of almost two years. The result is a Framework that serves as a working tool for the assessment of the risk of atrocity crimes in all parts of the world and for identifying those countries most at risk. It can be used to develop a basic risk assessment, as well an assessment of how a situation is changing over time and the kinds of events that can trigger change, or prevent a situation from deteriorating. The Framework is based on the premise that, to be effective, assessments require the systematic collection of accurate and reliable information based on a number of risk factors and indicators. The broad risk factors and the more specific indicators reflect definitions of the crimes in international law, case law from the work of international courts or tribunals, and empirical analysis of past and present situations. The elements required to assess the risk of genocide and crimes against humanity are directly influenced by the legal definition of these crimes. With respect to war crimes and ethnic cleansing, however, the approach is slightly different. First, given the absence of a conceptual definition common to all war crimes, such as that which exists in the case of genocide and crimes against humanity, the Framework focuses on those war crimes that have the greatest impact on the protection of human life. In addition, given the focus of the Responsibility to Protect on the protection of populations from the most serious violations of international human rights and humanitarian law, the Framework covers war crimes that assume a more systematic or widespread pattern of conduct. Second, given that ethnic cleansing does not have a distinct legal definition as 1 The Office uses the term atrocity crimes to refer to the crimes of genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes, as well as to ethnic cleansing even though the latter does not constitute an independent crime under international law. an international crime, but includes acts that can constitute other atrocity crimes or elements of them, it has been integrated into the analysis of the risk factors for those crimes. This Framework is a public document. The Office encourages and welcomes its use by international, regional and national actors as a tool either for early warning mechanisms, or for other mechanisms used for monitoring, assessment and forecasting. In addition, the Office recommends that Member States use the Framework to help identify both areas of success as well as gaps in atrocity prevention capacities and strategies at the national level. In the foreword of the document, the United Nations Secretary-Gen (...truncated)


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Adama Dieng, Jennifer Welsh. Assessing the Risk of Atrocity Crimes, Genocide Studies and Prevention: An International Journal, 2016, Volume 9, Issue 3,