Assessing the Risk of Atrocity Crimes
Adama Dieng and Jennifer Welsh, “Assessing the Risk of Atrocity Crimes” Genocide Studies and Prevention
Assessing the Risk of Atrocity Crimes
Adama Dieng
United Nations Special Adviser on the Responsibility to Protect
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Adama Dieng
United Nations Special Adviser on the Prevention of Genocide
Background
The Framework of Analysis for Atrocity Crimes is a tool developed by the United Nations Office
on Genocide Prevention and the Responsibility to Protect to guide the assessment of the risk of
atrocity crimes1 worldwide. This document builds upon the previous Framework of Analysis for
the risk of genocide that was developed in 2009 by the then United Nations Office of the Special
Adviser on the Prevention of Genocide, in order to fulfil its early warning mandate. That tool was
based on the foundation laid by former United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan when he
launched his plan of action to prevent genocide in April 2004. In the Secretary-General’s words on
that occasion:
If we are serious about preventing or stopping genocide in the future, we must not be held back
by legalistic arguments about whether a particular atrocity meets the definition of genocide or
not. By the time we are certain, it may often be too late to act. We must recognize the signs of
approaching or possible genocide, so that we can act in time to avert it. We badly need clear
guidelines on how to identify such extreme cases and how to react to them. Such guidelines
would ensure that we have no excuse to ignore a real danger of genocide when it does arise.
The initial framework of analysis for the prevention of genocide became obsolete when, in
2010, the Secretary-General decided to link the complementary mandates of the Special Advisers
on the Prevention of Genocide and on the Responsibility to Protect through a joint office. Since
then, the early warning work undertaken by this office has covered the risk not only of genocide
but also of war crimes, ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity.
The present Framework thus provides an integrated analysis and risk assessment tool for
genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity. The revision also reflects
recent developments and new research into the processes that lead to these crimes. It was subject to
consultations within and outside the United Nations system for a period of almost two years. The
result is a Framework that serves as a working tool for the assessment of the risk of atrocity crimes
in all parts of the world and for identifying those countries most at risk. It can be used to develop a
basic risk assessment, as well an assessment of how a situation is changing over time and the kinds
of events that can trigger change, or prevent a situation from deteriorating.
The Framework is based on the premise that, to be effective, assessments require the systematic
collection of accurate and reliable information based on a number of risk factors and indicators. The
broad risk factors and the more specific indicators reflect definitions of the crimes in international
law, case law from the work of international courts or tribunals, and empirical analysis of past and
present situations.
The elements required to assess the risk of genocide and crimes against humanity are
directly influenced by the legal definition of these crimes. With respect to war crimes and ethnic
cleansing, however, the approach is slightly different. First, given the absence of a conceptual
definition common to all war crimes, such as that which exists in the case of genocide and crimes
against humanity, the Framework focuses on those war crimes that have the greatest impact on
the protection of human life. In addition, given the focus of the Responsibility to Protect on the
protection of populations from the most serious violations of international human rights and
humanitarian law, the Framework covers war crimes that assume a more systematic or widespread
pattern of conduct. Second, given that ethnic cleansing does not have a distinct legal definition as
1 The Office uses the term atrocity crimes to refer to the crimes of genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes, as
well as to ethnic cleansing even though the latter does not constitute an independent crime under international law.
an international crime, but includes acts that can constitute other atrocity crimes or elements of
them, it has been integrated into the analysis of the risk factors for those crimes.
This Framework is a public document. The Office encourages and welcomes its use by
international, regional and national actors as a tool either for early warning mechanisms, or
for other mechanisms used for monitoring, assessment and forecasting. In addition, the Office
recommends that Member States use the Framework to help identify both areas of success as well
as gaps in atrocity prevention capacities and strategies at the national level. In the foreword of the
document, the United Nations Secretary-Gen (...truncated)