Diversification and intensification of agricultural adaptation from global to local scales

May Diversification and intensification of agricultural adaptation from global to local scales Minjie Chen 1 2 Bruno Wichmann 1 2 Marty Luckert 1 2 Leigh Winowiecki 0 2 Wiebke FoÈ rch 2 Peter LaÈ derach 2 0 The World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF) , Nairobi, Kenya, 3 Gesellschaft fuÈr Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ), Gaborone, Botswana, 4 Decision and Policy Analysis (DAPA) , International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) , Hanoi , Vietnam 1 Faculty of Agricultural, Life & Environment Sciences, University of Alberta , Edmonton, Alberta , Canada 2 Editor: Paul C. Struik, Wageningen University , NETHERLANDS Smallholder farming systems are vulnerable to a number of challenges, including continued population growth, urbanization, income disparities, land degradation, decreasing farm size and productivity, all of which are compounded by uncertainty of climatic patterns. Understanding determinants of smallholder farming practices is critical for designing and implementing successful interventions, including climate change adaptation programs. We examine two dimensions wherein smallholder farmers may adapt agricultural practices; through intensification (i.e., adopt more practices) or diversification (i.e. adopt different practices). We use data on 5314 randomly sampled households located in 38 sites in 15 countries across four regions (East and West Africa, South Asia, and Central America). We estimate empirical models designed to assess determinants of both intensification and diversification of adaptation activities at global scales. Aspects of adaptive capacity that are found to increase intensification of adaptation globally include variables associated with access to information and human capital, financial considerations, assets, household infrastructure and experience. In contrast, there are few global drivers of adaptive diversification, with a notable exception being access to weather information, which also increases adaptive intensification. Investigating reasons for adaptation indicate that conditions present in underdeveloped markets provide the primary impetus for adaptation, even in the context of climate change. We also compare determinants across spatial scales, which reveals a variety of local avenues through which policy interventions can relax economic constraints and boost agricultural adaptation for both intensification and diversification. For example, access to weather information does not affect intensification adaptation in Africa, but is significant at several sites in Bangladesh and India. Moreover, this information leads to diversification of adaptive activities on some sites in South Asia and Central America, but increases specialization in West and East Africa. Funding: This work was implemented as part of the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), which is carried out with support from CGIAR Fund Donors and through bilateral funding agreements. For details please visit https://ccafs.cgiar.org/donors. The views expressed in this document cannot be taken to reflect the official opinions of these organizations. Introduction Smallholder farming systems, and hence food security, are vulnerable to a number of challenges, including continued population growth, urbanization, income disparities, land degradation, and decreasing farm size [ 1, 2, 3 ]. Further challenging smallholder farming systems is climate change [ 4 ]. Extreme climate events, such as droughts and heavy rainfall, are becoming more frequent over the last decades, especially in areas such as Sub-Saharan Africa. These trends are likely to continue and highlight the need of a deeper understanding of how smallholder farmers in developing countries may respond to these changing circumstances [ 5 ]. Adaptation of farming practices has the potential to reduce the negative impacts of climate change [ 6 ]. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change defines adaptation as ªthe process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects seeking to moderate, avoid harm, or exploit beneficial opportunitiesº (see page 118 [ 7 ]. Though climate change is arguably a key stimulus for adaptation, we recognize that a number of other drivers could also be stimulating change, such as market conditions, pests and disease, government programs, and the availability of labor and land. Therefore, our analysis is undertaken within the context of multiple drivers of change. Our approach, to consider multiple drivers at a global scale, allows us to estimate the relative importance of the various general reasons for change, which also controls for these causes of change (as fixed effects) with respect to their influence on adaptation. Processes of adjustment are poorly understood and, unfortunately, are frequently constrained by socio-economic characteristics that constitute elements of adaptive capacity. As one of the landmark conclusions of COP21 (the 2015 U.N. Climate C (...truncated)