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Confounding and collinearity in regression analysis: a cautionary tale and an alternative procedure, illustrated by studies of British voting behaviour

Many ecological- and individual-level analyses of voting behaviour use multiple regressions with a considerable number of independent variables but few discussions of their results pay any attention to the potential impact of inter-relationships among those independent variables—do they confound the regression parameters and hence their interpretation? Three empirical examples are ...

Understanding and misunderstanding group mean centering: a commentary on Kelley et al.’s dangerous practice

Kelley et al. argue that group-mean-centering covariates in multilevel models is dangerous, since—they claim—it generates results that are biased and misleading. We argue instead that what is dangerous is Kelley et al.’s unjustified assault on a simple statistical procedure that is enormously helpful, if not vital, in analyses of multilevel data. Kelley et al.’s arguments appear to ...

The hierarchical age–period–cohort model: Why does it find the results that it finds?

It is claimed the hierarchical-age–period–cohort (HAPC) model solves the age–period–cohort (APC) identification problem. However, this is debateable; simulations show situations where the model produces incorrect results, countered by proponents of the model arguing those simulations are not relevant to real-life scenarios. This paper moves beyond questioning whether the HAPC model ...

Social trust, interpersonal trust and self-rated health in China: a multi-level study

Jones 0 School of Public Affairs, Zhejiang University , 866 Yuhangtang Road, Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province 310058 , China Background: Trust is important for health at both the individual and societal level

Ethnic Residential Segregation: A Multilevel, Multigroup, Multiscale Approach Exemplified by London in 2011

We develop and apply a multilevel modeling approach that is simultaneously capable of assessing multigroup and multiscale segregation in the presence of substantial stochastic variation that accompanies ethnicity rates based on small absolute counts. Bayesian MCMC estimation of a log-normal Poisson model allows the calculation of the variance estimates of the degree of segregation ...

Multilevel Modelling with Spatial Interaction Effects with Application to an Emerging Land Market in Beijing, China

This paper develops a methodology for extending multilevel modelling to incorporate spatial interaction effects. The motivation is that classic multilevel models are not specifically spatial. Lower level units may be nested into higher level ones based on a geographical hierarchy (or a membership structure—for example, census zones into regions) but the actual locations of the ...

Geographic Variation in the Prevalence of Common Mental Disorders in Britain: A Multilevel Investigation

It is still not known whether the places that people live affect their mental health. The principal aim of this 1991 study was to quantify simultaneously variance in the prevalence of the most common mental disorders, anxiety and depression, in Britain at the individual, household, and electoral ward levels. Data from a cross-sectional, nationally representative survey of 8,979 ...