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Integrated climate assessment: risks, uncertainties, and society

 Takahashi 0 1 0 National Institute for Environmental Studies , 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki , Japan 1 Handled by Dr. Osamu Saito, United Nations University Institute for the Advanced Study of Sustainability

Risk implications of long-term global climate goals: overall conclusions of the ICA-RUS project

We have assessed the risks associated with setting 1.5, 2.0, or 2.5 °C temperature goals and ways to manage them in a systematic manner and discussed their implications. The results suggest that, given the uncertainties in climate sensitivity, “net zero emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the second half of this century” is a more actionable goal for society than the 2...

How do climate-related uncertainties influence 2 and 1.5 °C pathways?

We investigate how uncertainties in key parameters in the carbon cycle and climate system propagate to the costs of climate change mitigation and adaptation needed to achieve the 2 and 1.5 °C targets by 2100 using a stochastic version of the simple climate model for optimization (SCM4OPT), an integrated assessment model. For the 2 °C target, we find a difference in 2100 CO2...

Implication of Paris Agreement in the context of long-term climate mitigation goals

The Paris Agreement confirmed the global aim to achieve a long-term climate goal, in which the global increase in mean temperature is kept below 2 °C compared to the preindustrial level. We investigated the implications of the near-term emissions targets (for around the year 2030) in the context of the long-term climate mitigation goal using the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model...

Economic implications of climate change impacts on human health through undernourishment

This study quantified the impacts of climate change on human health through undernourishment using two economic measures. First, changes in morbidity and mortality due to nine diseases caused by being underweight as a child were analyzed using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model with changes in the labor force, population, and demands for healthcare taken into...

Downscaling Global Emissions and Its Implications Derived from Climate Model Experiments

In climate change research, future scenarios of greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions generated by integrated assessment models (IAMs) are used in climate models (CMs) and earth system models to analyze future interactions and feedback between human activities and climate. However, the spatial resolutions of IAMs and CMs differ. IAMs usually disaggregate the world into 10–30...

Temperature scaling pattern dependence on representative concentration pathway emission scenarios

To preserve consistency among developed emission scenarios, the scenarios used in climate modeling, and the climate scenarios available for impact research, the pattern scaling technique is useful technique. The basic assumption of pattern scaling is that the spatial response pattern per 1 K increase in the global mean surface air temperature (SAT) (scaling pattern) is the same...