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29 papers found.
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Possible changes in the transmissibility of trachoma following MDA and transmission reduction: implications for the GET2020 goals

Background The role of mass drug administration (MDA) and the implementation of transmission reduction measures are essential to successfully control and eliminate a wide range of NTDs, including the ocular disease trachoma. Immunity to trachoma infection acts by reducing the duration of an individual’s infectious period and by reducing their infectivity with each successive...

Enhanced antibiotic distribution strategies and the potential impact of facial cleanliness and environmental improvements for the sustained control of trachoma: a modelling study

Background Despite some success in controlling trachoma with repeated mass drug administration (MDA), some hyperendemic regions are not responding as fast as anticipated. Available data suggests that individuals with higher bacterial infection loads are less likely to resolve infection following a single dose of treatment, and thus remain a source of re-emergent infection...

Improvements in life expectancy among Australians due to reductions in smoking: Results from a risk percentiles approach

Background Tobacco smoking is a major burden on the Australian population in terms of health, social and economic costs. Because of this, in 2008, all Australian Governments agreed to set targets to reduce prevalence of smoking to 10 % by 2018 and subsequently introduced several very strong anti-smoking measures. On this backdrop, we estimated in 2012-13 the impact of several...

Estimates of the reproduction number for seasonal, pandemic, and zoonotic influenza: a systematic review of the literature

0 Manoj Gambhir Lyn Finelli 0 0 Epidemiology and Prevention Branch, Influenza Division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention , 1600

A Change in Vaccine Efficacy and Duration of Protection Explains Recent Rises in Pertussis Incidence in the United States

Over the past ten years the incidence of pertussis in the United States (U.S.) has risen steadily, with 2012 seeing the highest case number since 1955. There has also been a shift over the same time period in the age group reporting the largest number of cases (aside from infants), from adolescents to 7–11 year olds. We use epidemiological modelling and a large case incidence...

Epidemiologic Implications of Asymptomatic Reinfection: A Mathematical Modeling Study of Norovirus

Disease, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia (Ben Lopman, Kirsten Simmons, Manoj Gambhir, Jan Vinjé, Umesh Parashar); Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta ... , Georgia (Ben Lopman, Kirsten Simmons); and MRC Center for Outbreaks Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom (Manoj Gambhir

Modelling the distribution and transmission intensity of lymphatic filariasis in sub-Saharan Africa prior to scaling up interventions: integrated use of geostatistical and mathematical modelling

. Déirdre Hollingsworth Manoj Gambhir Simon J. Brooker 0 0 Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine , London , UK Background: Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is one

Infectious Disease Modeling Methods as Tools for Informing Response to Novel Influenza Viruses of Unknown Pandemic Potential

The rising importance of infectious disease modeling makes this an appropriate time for a guide for public health practitioners tasked with preparing for, and responding to, an influenza pandemic. We list several questions that public health practitioners commonly ask about pandemic influenza and match these with analytical methods, giving details on when during a pandemic the...

Control of Trachoma in Australia: A Model Based Evaluation of Current Interventions

Background Australia is the only high-income country in which endemic trachoma persists. In response, the Australian Government has recently invested heavily towards the nationwide control of the disease. Methodology/Principal Findings A novel simulation model was developed to reflect the trachoma epidemic in Australian Aboriginal communities. The model, which incorporates...

Sensitivity analysis of infectious disease models: methods, advances and their application

Jianyong Wu Radhika Dhingra Manoj Gambhir Justin V. Remais 0 Program in Population Biology, Ecology and Evolution, Graduate Division of Biological and Biomedical Sciences, Emory University , 1510

Modelling Co-Infection with Malaria and Lymphatic Filariasis

Malaria and lymphatic filariasis (LF) continue to cause a considerable public health burden globally and are co-endemic in many regions of sub-Saharan Africa. These infections are transmitted by the same mosquito species which raises important questions about optimal vector control strategies in co-endemic regions, as well as the effect of the presence of each infection on...

Causal diagrams in systems epidemiology

Methods of diagrammatic modelling have been greatly developed in the past two decades. Outside the context of infectious diseases, systematic use of diagrams in epidemiology has been mainly confined to the analysis of a single link: that between a disease outcome and its proximal determinant(s). Transmitted causes ("causes of causes") tend not to be systematically analysed. The...

Complex Ecological Dynamics and Eradicability of the Vector Borne Macroparasitic Disease, Lymphatic Filariasis

Gambhir 0 Edwin Michael 0 Katia Koelle, Duke University, United States of America 0 Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Medicine, Imperial College London , London , United Kingdom

Short-term Forecasting of the Prevalence of Trachoma: Expert Opinion, Statistical Regression, versus Transmission Models

Background Trachoma programs rely on guidelines made in large part using expert opinion of what will happen with and without intervention. Large community-randomized trials offer an opportunity to actually compare forecasting methods in a masked fashion. Methods The Program for the Rapid Elimination of Trachoma trials estimated longitudinal prevalence of ocular chlamydial...

Transmissibility of Variant Influenza From Swine to Humans: A Modeling Approach

Background. Respiratory illness was reported among humans and swine at an agricultural fair in 2011; 3 human infections with an influenza A(H3N2) variant (H3N2v) virus were confirmed. Using epidemiologic investigation data, we sought to estimate H3N2v transmissibility from swine to humans. Methods. We developed a model of H3N2v transmission among swine and humans and fit it to...

Multiple Contributory Factors to the Age Distribution of Disease Cases: A Modeling Study in the Context of Influenza A(H3N2v)

Background. In late 2011 and early 2012, 13 cases of human influenza resulted from infection with a novel triple reassortant swine-origin influenza virus, influenza A (H3N2) variant. This variant was notable for its inclusion of the matrix gene from the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic virus. While most of these confirmed cases were among children, the transmission potential and...

Sequential Modelling of the Effects of Mass Drug Treatments on Anopheline-Mediated Lymphatic Filariasis Infection in Papua New Guinea

Background Lymphatic filariasis (LF) has been targeted by the WHO for global eradication leading to the implementation of large scale intervention programs based on annual mass drug administrations (MDA) worldwide. Recent work has indicated that locality-specific bio-ecological complexities affecting parasite transmission may complicate the prediction of LF extinction endpoints...

Estimates of the Number of Human Infections With Influenza A(H3N2) Variant Virus, United States, August 2011–April 2012

Background. Thirteen human infections with an influenza A(H3N2) variant (H3N2v) virus containing a combination of gene segments not previously associated with human illness were identified in the United States from August 2011 to April 2012. Because laboratory confirmation of influenza virus infection is only performed for a minority of ill persons and routine clinical tests may...

Improvements in pandemic preparedness in 8 Central American countries, 2008 - 2012

Lucinda EA Johnson 0 Wilfrido Clar 2 Manoj Gambhir 1 Rafael Chacn- Fuentes 7 Carlos Marn-Correa 6 Jorge Jara 7 Percy Minaya 6 David Rodrguez 5 Natalia Blanco 7 Naomi Iihoshi 4 Maribel Orozco 9 Carmen