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Forecasting infectious disease emergence subject to seasonal forcing

Despite high vaccination coverage, many childhood infections pose a growing threat to human populations. Accurate disease forecasting would be of tremendous value to public health. Forecasting disease emergence using early warning signals (EWS) is possible in non-seasonal models of infectious diseases. Here, we assessed whether EWS also anticipate disease emergence in seasonal ...

Forecasting Epidemiological Consequences of Maternal Immunization

Background. The increase in the incidence of whooping cough (pertussis) in many countries with high vaccination coverage is alarming. Maternal pertussis immunization has been proposed as an effective means of protecting newborns during the interval between birth and the first routine dose. However, there are concerns regarding potential interference between maternal antibodies and ...

Unraveling the Transmission Ecology of Polio

Sustained and coordinated vaccination efforts have brought polio eradication within reach. Anticipating the eradication of wild poliovirus (WPV) and the subsequent challenges in preventing its re-emergence, we look to the past to identify why polio rose to epidemic levels in the mid-20th century, and how WPV persisted over large geographic scales. We analyzed an extensive ...

Changing spatial epidemiology of pertussis in continental USA

Prediction and control of the geographical spread of emerging pathogens has become a central public health issue. Because these infectious diseases are by definition novel, there are few data to characterize their dynamics. One possible solution to this problem is to apply lessons learnt from analyses of historical data on familiar and epidemiologically similar pathogens. However, ...

The consequences of climate change at an avian influenza ‘hotspot’

Avian influenza viruses (AIVs) pose significant danger to human health. A key step in managing this threat is understanding the maintenance of AIVs in wild birds, their natural reservoir. Ruddy turnstones (Arenaria interpres) are an atypical bird species in this regard, annually experiencing high AIV prevalence in only one location—Delaware Bay, USA, during their spring migration. ...

The Link between Dengue Incidence and El Niño Southern Oscillation

Pejman Rohani discusses a new study that examined the dynamic relationship between climate variables and dengue incidence in Thailand, Mexico, and Puerto Rico. ... and Thailand. PLoS Med 6(11): e1000168. doi:10. 1371/journal.pmed.1000168 The Link between Dengue Incidence and El Nin o Southern Oscillation Pejman Rohani 0 0 1 Department of Ecology

Adaptive Evolution and Environmental Durability Jointly Structure Phylodynamic Patterns in Avian Influenza Viruses

Rohani 0 Christophe Fraser, Imperial College London, United Kingdom 0 1 Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan , Ann Arbor , Michigan, United States of America, 2 Unite de

A Multi-scale Analysis of Influenza A Virus Fitness Trade-offs due to Temperature-dependent Virus Persistence

Successful replication within an infected host and successful transmission between hosts are key to the continued spread of most pathogens. Competing selection pressures exerted at these different scales can lead to evolutionary trade-offs between the determinants of fitness within and between hosts. Here, we examine such a trade-off in the context of influenza A viruses and the ...

Linking community and disease ecology: the impact of biodiversity on pathogen transmission

The increasing number of zoonotic diseases spilling over from a range of wild animal species represents a particular concern for public health, especially in light of the current dramatic trend of biodiversity loss. To understand the ecology of these multi-host pathogens and their response to environmental degradation and species extinctions, it is necessary to develop a ...

Statistical Inference for Multi-Pathogen Systems

There is growing interest in understanding the nature and consequences of interactions among infectious agents. Pathogen interactions can be operational at different scales, either within a co-infected host or in host populations where they co-circulate, and can be either cooperative or competitive. The detection of interactions among pathogens has typically involved the study of ...

Time and dose-dependent risk of pneumococcal pneumonia following influenza: a model for within-host interaction between influenza and Streptococcus pneumoniae

Sourya Shrestha Betsy Foxman Suzanne Dawid Allison E. Aiello Brian M. Davis Joshua Berus Pejman Rohani 0 Undergraduate Research Opportunity Program, University of Michigan , Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA

Herd immunity acquired indirectly from interactions between the ecology of infectious diseases, demography and economics

Matthew H. Bonds () Pejman Rohani 0 Center for Tropical and Emerging Global Diseases, University of Georgia , Athens, GA 30602-2606, USA 1 Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia , Athens, GA

An Agent-Based Model to study the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of Influenza viruses

Benjamin Roche 0 John M Drake Pejman Rohani 0 0 Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan , Ann Arbor, MI 48109 , USA Background: Influenza A viruses exhibit complex

Neutrality, Cross-Immunity and Subtype Dominance in Avian Influenza Viruses

Avian influenza viruses (AIVs) are considered a threat for their potential to seed human influenza pandemics. Despite their acknowledged importance, there are significant unknowns regarding AIV transmission dynamics in their natural hosts, wild birds. Of particular interest is the difference in subtype dynamics between human and bird populations–in human populations, typically only ...

Estimating the Duration of Pertussis Immunity Using Epidemiological Signatures

Case notifications of pertussis have shown an increase in a number of countries with high rates of routine pediatric immunization. This has led to significant public health concerns over a possible pertussis re-emergence. A leading proposed explanation for the observed increase in incidence is the loss of immunity to pertussis, which is known to occur after both natural infection ...

Noise, nonlinearity and seasonality: the epidemics of whooping cough revisited

Hanh T.H Nguyen 0 Pejman Rohani () 0 0 University of Georgia , Athens, GA 30602-2606, USA Receive free email alerts when new articles cite this article - sign up in the box at the top right-hand ... epidemics of whooping cough revisited Hanh T. H. Nguyen and Pejman Rohani* Understanding the mechanisms that generate oscillations in the incidence of childhood infectious diseases has preoccupied

Age-structured effects and disease interference in childhood infections

Yunxin Huang () 0 Pejman Rohani 0 0 Institute of Ecology and Center for Tropical and Emerging Global Diseases, University of Georgia , Athens, GA 30602 , USA Recent studies have demonstrated that

Influenza and Community-acquired Pneumonia Interactions: The Impact of Order and Time of Infection on Population Patterns

Washington Heights, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 ( 1 Literature, Science and the Arts, University of Michigan , Ann Arbor, Michigan (Pejman Rohani , Sourya Shrestha); and Fogarty International Center, National ... Institutes of Health , Bethesda , Maryland (Pejman Rohani). This work was supported by a Research Partnership Grant from the Rackham Graduate School at the University of Michigan. The Rackham Graduate School

Interactions between serotypes of dengue highlight epidemiological impact of cross-immunity

Nicholas G. Reich Sourya Shrestha Aaron A. King Pejman Rohani Justin Lessler Siripen Kalayanarooj In-Kyu Yoon Robert V. Gibbons Donald S. Burke Derek A. T. Cummings 0 Department of Ecology and

The Role of Environmental Transmission in Recurrent Avian Influenza Epidemics

Avian influenza virus (AIV) persists in North American wild waterfowl, exhibiting major outbreaks every 2–4 years. Attempts to explain the patterns of periodicity and persistence using simple direct transmission models are unsuccessful. Motivated by empirical evidence, we examine the contribution of an overlooked AIV transmission mode: environmental transmission. It is known that ...