# Climate Dynamics

## List of Papers (Total 902)

#### Season-dependent predictability barrier for two types of El Niño revealed by an approach to data analysis for predictability

The real-time prediction skill for El Niño-Southern Oscillation has not improved steadily during the twenty-first century. One important reason is the season-dependent predictability barrier (PB), and another is due to the diversity of El Niño. In this paper, an approach to data analysis for predictability is developed to investigate the season-dependent PB phenomena of two types...

#### Impact of model resolution on Arctic sea ice and North Atlantic Ocean heat transport

Arctic sea-ice area and volume have substantially decreased since the beginning of the satellite era. Concurrently, the poleward heat transport from the North Atlantic Ocean into the Arctic has increased, partly contributing to the loss of sea ice. Increasing the horizontal resolution of general circulation models (GCMs) improves their ability to represent the complex interplay...

#### Characterization of European wind speed variability using weather regimes

The aim of this paper is threefold. Firstly, to present a representative set of large-scale weather regimes for each month of the year over the Euro-Atlantic region and compare them amongst three commonly employed global reanalyses. Secondly, to measure the impact of the weather regimes on near-surface wind speed variability. Lastly, to validate the regime’s ability to...

#### Re-emergence of North Atlantic subsurface ocean temperature anomalies in a seasonal forecast system

A high-resolution coupled ocean atmosphere model is used to study the effects of seasonal re-emergence of North Atlantic subsurface ocean temperature anomalies on northern hemisphere winter climate. A 50-member control ensemble is integrated from 1 September 2007 to 28 February 2008 and compared with a parallel ensemble with perturbed ocean initial conditions. The perturbation...

#### Skilful seasonal prediction of winter wind speeds in China

We demonstrate robust skill in forecasting winter (DJF) mean 10 m wind speeds for the period 1992/3–2011/12 over south-eastern China and the South China Sea (SE China) and northern-central (NC) China, with correlations exceeding 0.8 and 0.6 respectively. High skill over these regions is seen in two independent initialised ensembles which cover different time periods. The NC China...

#### Attribution of the Last Glacial Maximum climate formation

To better understand what determines the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) cold and dry climate, a suite of numerical experiments with the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Earth System Model version 1 are conducted to assess the relative contributions of individual external forcings, including greenhouse gases (GHGs), ice sheets (IS), land-sea configuration (LSC...

#### Effect of El Niño on the response ratio of Hadley circulation to different SST meridional structures

The role of El Niño in influencing the response of the Hadley circulation (HC) to different tropical sea surface temperature (SST) meridional structures is investigated over the period 1979–2016. The explained variance of the equatorially asymmetric principal mode of HC variability is enhanced during El Niño events that are characterized by equatorially symmetric El Niño SST...

#### Metrics for understanding large-scale controls of multivariate temperature and precipitation variability

Two or more spatio-temporally co-located meteorological/climatological extremes (co-occurring extremes) place far greater stress on human and ecological systems than any single extreme could. This was observed during the California drought of 2011–2015 where multiple years of negative precipitation anomalies occurred simultaneously with positive temperature anomalies resulting in...

#### Assessing natural variability in RCM signals: comparison of a multi model EURO-CORDEX ensemble with a 50-member single model large ensemble

Uncertainties in climate model ensembles are still relatively large. Besides scenario and model response uncertainty, natural variability is another important source of uncertainty. To study regional natural variability on timescales of several decades and more, observations are often too sparse and short. Regional Climate Models (RCMs) can be used to overcome this lack of useful...

#### Improved climatological precipitation characteristics over West Africa at convection-permitting scales

The West African climate is unique and challenging to reproduce using standard resolution climate models as a large proportion of precipitation comes from organised deep convection. For the first time, a regional 4.5 km convection permitting simulation was performed on a pan-African domain for a period of 10 years (1997–2006). The 4.5 km simulation (CP4A) is compared with a 25...

#### Dominant patterns of winter-time intraseasonal surface air temperature over the CONUS in response to MJO convections

The dominant patterns of the intraseasonal surface air temperature (SAT) over the Contiguous United States (CONUS) during wintertime (December–March) are investigated in the period of 1979–2014 in the present study. The first two leading modes revealed by the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis sufficiently represent the patterns by explaining nearly 80% of the total...