Empirical Study of Decomposition of Emission Factors in China

Journal of Energy, Nov 2013

China’s CO2 emissions increase has attracted world’s attention. It is of great importance to analyze China’s CO2 emission factors to restrain the CO2 rapid growing. The CO2 emissions of industrial and residential consumption sectors in China during 1980–2010 were calculated in this paper. The expanded decomposition model of CO2 emissions was set up by adopting factor-separating method based on the basic principle of the Kaya identities. The results showed that CO2 emissions of industrial and residential consumption sectors increase year after year, and the scale effect of GDP is the most important factor affecting CO2 emissions of industrial sector. Decreasing the specific gravity of secondary industry and energy intensity is more effective than decreasing the primary industry and tertiary industry. The emissions reduction effect of structure factor is better than the efficiency factor. For residential consumption sector, CO2 emissions increase rapidly year after year, and the economy factor (the increase of wealthy degree or income) is the most important factor. In order to slow down the growth of CO2 emissions, it is an important way to change the economic growth mode, and the structure factor will become a crucial factor.

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Empirical Study of Decomposition of Emission Factors in China

Empirical Study of Decomposition of ? ? ?   Emission Factors in China Yadong Ning,1 Yonghong Zhang,1 Tao Ding,1 and Yutaka Tonooka2 1School of Energy and Power Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian, Liaoning 116024, China 2Faculty of Economics, Saitama University, Saitama 338-0875, Japan Received 30 June 2013; Revised 20 September 2013; Accepted 21 September 2013 Academic Editor: Mattheos Santamouris Copyright © 2013 Yadong Ning et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. Abstract China’s CO2 emissions increase has attracted world’s attention. It is of great importance to analyze China’s CO2 emission factors to restrain the CO2 rapid growing. The CO2 emissions of industrial and residential consumption sectors in China during 1980–2010 were calculated in this paper. The expanded decomposition model of CO2 emissions was set up by adopting factor-separating method based on the basic principle of the Kaya identities. The results showed that CO2 emissions of industrial and residential consumption sectors increase year after year, and the scale effect of GDP is the most important factor affecting CO2 emissions of industrial sector. Decreasing the specific gravity of secondary industry and energy intensity is more effective than decreasing the primary industry and tertiary industry. The emissions reduction effect of structure factor is better than the efficiency factor. For residential consumption sector, CO2 emissions increase rapidly year after year, and the economy factor (the increase of wealthy degree or income) is the most important factor. In order to slow down the growth of CO2 emissions, it is an important way to change the economic growth mode, and the structure factor will become a crucial factor. 1. Introduction At Copenhagen Conference in December 2009, China’s CO2 emissions attracted the world’s attention, not only the rapid increase of CO2 emissions but also the leading position of China’s CO2 emissions in the world. This has exerted considerable pressure upon China in CO2 emissions reduction. It is becoming more and more significant to acquire quantity and feature of CO2 emissions by all sectors and regions in China. As the first major carbon emitters and the largest developing country in the world, China’s CO2 emissions will increase in a long period. The Chinese State Council or cabinet said that China would aim to cut carbon intensity—the amount of carbon dioxide emissions per unit of gross domestic product—by a range of 40% to 45% by 2020. However, the acceleration of China’s urbanization process and the improvement of the living standard contribute to the rapid increase of CO2 emissions. As a result, analysis should be made on the causes for CO2 emissions in China. CO2 emissions are determined by the economic development, technical level, energy structure, economic structure, population structure, and many other factors. However, their contributions to CO2 emissions are not of the same significance, and many types of models have been used to acquire quantity and feature of CO2 emissions. The economic development factor is generally acknowledged as the major factor of CO2 emissions by some studies. The study conducted by Fan et al. [1] showed that the economic development is the biggest factor to CO2 emissions on the global perspective. A survey had been done by Li and Wang [2], and the results showed that in the long term, a 1% increase in real GDP per capita increases the consumption of energy by approximately 0.48%–0.50% and accordingly increases the carbon dioxide emissions by about 0.41%–0.43% in China. Based on dynamic general equilibrium model, macroeconomic data, and CO2 emissions, the paper made by Fu and Pei [3] indicated that, with further effective emission control measures, China’s economic growth over the next thirty years (2010–2040) will not lead to significant CO2 emissions increasing. Scale effect and technical effect of Divisia index decomposition results showed that CO2 emissions can be realized by focused abatement activities, cleaner production, advances in cleaner fuel products and their use of technologies. A logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) model has been used by Wang et al. [4] to study the carbon emission of China during 1957 to 2000. The study showed that China has achieved a considerable decrease in its CO2 emissions mainly due to the energy intensity improved. In addition, fuel switching and renewable energy penetration also exhibit positive effect on the CO2 decrease. Lin and Jiang [5] verified the influence of industrial structure and energy structure change to the CO2 emissions. The cointegration analysis indicated that the relationship between industrial structure and CO2 emission is balanced and steady over a long period of time. Liou and Wu [6] employed d (...truncated)


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Yadong Ning, Yonghong Zhang, Tao Ding, Yutaka Tonooka. Empirical Study of Decomposition of Emission Factors in China, Journal of Energy, 2013, 2013, DOI: 10.1155/2013/747516