Driving Factor Analysis of Carbon Emissions in China’s Power Sector for Low-Carbon Economy

Mathematical Problems in Engineering, Mar 2017

The largest percentage of China’s total coal consumption is used for coal-fired power generation, which has resulted in the power sector becoming China’s largest carbon emissions emitter. Most of the previous studies concerning the driving factors of carbon emissions changes lacked considerations of different socioeconomic factors. This study examines the impacts of eight factors from different aspects on carbon emissions within power sector from 1981 to 2013 by using the extended Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology (STIRPAT) model; in addition, the regression coefficients are effectively determined by a partial least squares regression (PLS) method. The empirical results show that (1) the degree of influence of various factors from strong to weak is urbanization level (UL) > technology level () > population (P) > GDP per capita (A) > line loss () > power generation structure () > energy intensity () > industry structure (IS); (2) economic activity is no longer the most important contributing factor; the strong correlation between electricity consumption and economic growth is weakening; and (3) the coal consumption rate of power generation had the most obvious inhibitory effect, indicating that technological progress is still a vital means of achieving emissions reductions.

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Driving Factor Analysis of Carbon Emissions in China’s Power Sector for Low-Carbon Economy

Driving Factor Analysis of Carbon Emissions in China’s Power Sector for Low-Carbon Economy Dan Yan,1,2 Yalin Lei,1,2 and Li Li1,2 1School of Humanities and Economic Management, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China 2Key Laboratory of Carrying Capacity Assessment for Resource and Environment, Ministry of Land and Resources, Beijing 100083, China Correspondence should be addressed to Yalin Lei; nc.ude.bguc@nilayiel Received 14 September 2016; Revised 16 February 2017; Accepted 22 February 2017; Published 13 March 2017 Academic Editor: Risto Lahdelma Copyright © 2017 Dan Yan et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. Abstract The largest percentage of China’s total coal consumption is used for coal-fired power generation, which has resulted in the power sector becoming China’s largest carbon emissions emitter. Most of the previous studies concerning the driving factors of carbon emissions changes lacked considerations of different socioeconomic factors. This study examines the impacts of eight factors from different aspects on carbon emissions within power sector from 1981 to 2013 by using the extended Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology (STIRPAT) model; in addition, the regression coefficients are effectively determined by a partial least squares regression (PLS) method. The empirical results show that (1) the degree of influence of various factors from strong to weak is urbanization level (UL) > technology level () > population (P) > GDP per capita (A) > line loss () > power generation structure () > energy intensity () > industry structure (IS); (2) economic activity is no longer the most important contributing factor; the strong correlation between electricity consumption and economic growth is weakening; and (3) the coal consumption rate of power generation had the most obvious inhibitory effect, indicating that technological progress is still a vital means of achieving emissions reductions. 1. Introduction Since the 1960s, climate change has become a scientific issue that has been widely concerned. The world has reached a consensus on limiting the rise in temperature to 2 degrees as a long-term goal to address climate change. According to the United Nations Commission on Climate Change (UNCCC), greenhouse gases (GHGs) concentrations in the atmosphere must be controlled at 450 ppm or less, and the target of keeping global warming to no more than about 2 degrees Celsius is expected to be achievable. The fifth assessment report released by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) claimed that the massive use of fossil fuel based on human activity is the main cause of increasing GHGs in recent years, especially CO2 emissions. From 1990 to 2012, a substantial increase in global coal production resulted in the power sector-generated CO2 emissions doubling, with this sector becoming the world’s largest carbon emissions sector, accounting for 42% [1]. Over the past 30 years, China’s economic growth has been close to 10% on average; energy consumption and CO2 emissions have increased dramatically, and China has become the largest carbon emitter worldwide, accounting for 25% of the global carbon emissions [2]. The large amount of CO2 emissions prompted China to recognize its international responsibilities; in 2009, the Chinese government claimed that it would strive to cut its carbon intensity by 40–45% before 2020, compared with that in 2005; in addition, a formal commitment on reaching the peak of its GHGs emissions by approximately 2030 while striving to peak earlier was also made by the Chinese government in 2014 [3]. CO2 emissions are closely related to fossil energy consumption; thus, the peak emission goal formed the reverse transmission mechanism for coal consumption, indicating that the amount of coal consumption in China in 2020 and 2030 must be less than 3.8 billion tons and less than 3.4 billion tons, respectively [4]. Electricity generation is mainly dominated by coal in China; coal consumption for the power sector accounted for 44.73% of the total. Based on our estimations, there was a dramatic growth in the carbon emissions of power sector between 1981 and 2013 (see Figure 1); to be more specific, it had reached the peak at 3758 MT in 2013, accounting for 41.8% of China’s total carbon emissions, which also resulted in this sector becoming China’s top carbon dioxide emitter. Figure 1: The carbon dioxide from China’s power sector (1990–2013). The 13th Five-Year Plan states that the carbon emissions from power and other key industries should be controlled effectively and that development areas should take the lead in achieving peak emissions targets [14]. Understanding the driving factors involved in economics, society, and industry of emissions is e (...truncated)


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Dan Yan, Yalin Lei, Li Li. Driving Factor Analysis of Carbon Emissions in China’s Power Sector for Low-Carbon Economy, Mathematical Problems in Engineering, 2017, 2017, DOI: 10.1155/2017/4954217