Identifying the Determinants of CO2 Emission Change in China’s Power Sector

Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, Nov 2016

Power sector is significantly important for China to achieve the CO2 emission reduction targets. In this study, we analyze the features of CO2 emissions and environment effect in China’s power sector, investigate the driving factors of CO2 emission change based on the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method, and evaluate the mitigation potential of CO2 emissions in China’s power sector. Results show that CO2 emissions in China’s power sector increased rapidly from 492.00 Mt in 1990 to 3049.88 Mt in 2014 while CO2 emission intensity experienced an unsteady downward trend during the study period. Industrial scale effect is the key contributor to CO2 emission growth in China’s power sector, and its contribution degree reaches 123.97%. Energy intensity effect contributes most to the decrease in CO2 emissions, with a contribution degree of −20.01%. Capital productivity effect is another important factor leading to CO2 emissions increase. The aggregate CO2 emission reduction would reach 17973.86 million tons (Mt) during 2015–2030 in the ideal emission reduction scenario. Finally, policy recommendations are made for future energy-saving and CO2 emission reduction in China’s power sector.

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Identifying the Determinants of CO2 Emission Change in China’s Power Sector

Identifying the Determinants of CO2 Emission Change in China’s Power Sector Caiqing Zhang, Mi Zhang, and Nan Zhang Department of Economic Management, North China Electric Power University, No. 689 Huadian Road, Baoding City 071003, China Received 5 September 2016; Accepted 6 November 2016 Academic Editor: Luisa Di Paola Copyright © 2016 Caiqing Zhang et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. Abstract Power sector is significantly important for China to achieve the CO2 emission reduction targets. In this study, we analyze the features of CO2 emissions and environment effect in China’s power sector, investigate the driving factors of CO2 emission change based on the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method, and evaluate the mitigation potential of CO2 emissions in China’s power sector. Results show that CO2 emissions in China’s power sector increased rapidly from 492.00 Mt in 1990 to 3049.88 Mt in 2014 while CO2 emission intensity experienced an unsteady downward trend during the study period. Industrial scale effect is the key contributor to CO2 emission growth in China’s power sector, and its contribution degree reaches 123.97%. Energy intensity effect contributes most to the decrease in CO2 emissions, with a contribution degree of −20.01%. Capital productivity effect is another important factor leading to CO2 emissions increase. The aggregate CO2 emission reduction would reach 17973.86 million tons (Mt) during 2015–2030 in the ideal emission reduction scenario. Finally, policy recommendations are made for future energy-saving and CO2 emission reduction in China’s power sector. 1. Introduction Climate change has aroused growing concern worldwide due to its contribution to environmental pollution and being an obstacle to sustainable socioeconomic development [1]. The ongoing emission of greenhouse gas (GHG) which gives priority to carbon dioxide is responsible for the climate change. In the context of limited energy resources availability and increasingly serious environmental problems, the development of low-carbon economy with lower power consumption and CO2 emissions is becoming a common choice for the world economic development to mitigate climate change and achieve sustainable development. As world’s largest emitter of CO2 emissions [2], China has attached great importance to transition to a low-carbon economy and taken effective measures to support it through industrial restructuring, renewable energy consumption promotion, and carbon market establishment [3]. China’s power sector plays a leading role in CO2 emissions of China. In 2013, CO2 emissions of China’s power sector accounted for 48.86% of the total CO2 emissions. The low-carbon development of China’s power sector drives the low-carbon development of energy-economic-society in China. Therefore, the CO2 emission reduction in China’s power sector becomes the key factor to achieve the low-carbon development of China. In addition, power sector belongs to the fundamentals of industrial production and residents’ living which are being conquered by electricity. It is particularly important to balance the relationship between adequate supply of electricity and CO2 mitigation when developing strategies for mitigating the increasing CO2 emissions and global climate change. Therefore, the analysis of the CO2 emissions in China’s power sector is very important. Against this background, many studies on CO2 emissions in China’s power sector have been conducted. The work in [4] presented the results of a life cycle analysis of GHG emissions from power generation systems to understand the characteristics of these systems from the perspective of global warming. The work in [5] quantified the CO2 emissions of the power sector from both production and consumption perspectives and explained the environmental impact of the regional supply and demand mismatch of electricity in China. The work in [6] proposed a consumer responsibility method to calculate the CO2 emissions of the power sector at the provincial level in China based on the detailed origins of each province’s electricity consumption. The work in [7] conducted a cointegration analysis to explore the significant factors affecting CO2 emissions in China’s power sector including standard coal consumption rate for generating power, average thermal power equipment utilization hours, and industrial value added. The work in [8] conducted a comparative study of dynamic changes in CO2 emission performance of fossil fuel power plants in China and Korea through developing a new index called the nonradial metafrontier Malmquist CO2 emissions performance index (NMMCPI). The NMMCPI was decomposed into an efficiency change index, a best-practice gap change index, and a technology gap change index. The proceeding literatures mainl (...truncated)


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Caiqing Zhang, Mi Zhang, Nan Zhang. Identifying the Determinants of CO2 Emission Change in China’s Power Sector, Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, 2016, 2016, DOI: 10.1155/2016/2626418