Spatiotemporal Characteristics, Determinants and Scenario Analysis of CO2 Emissions in China Using Provincial Panel Data
September
Spatiotemporal Characteristics, Determinants and Scenario Analysis of CO2 Emissions in China Using Provincial Panel Data
Shaojian Wang 0 1
Chuanglin Fang 0 1
Guangdong Li 0 1
0 1 School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-Sen University , Guangzhou, 510275, China , 2 Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing, 100101, China , 3 Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing, 100101 , China
1 Editor: Jian Liu, Shandong University , CHINA
This paper empirically investigated the spatiotemporal variations, influencing factors and future emission trends of China's CO2 emissions based on a provincial panel data set. A series of panel econometric models were used taking the period 1995-2011 into consideration. The results indicated that CO2 emissions in China increased over time, and were characterized by noticeable regional discrepancies; in addition, CO2 emissions also exhibited properties of spatial dependence and convergence. Factors such as population scale, economic level and urbanization level exerted a positive influence on CO2 emissions. Conversely, energy intensity was identified as having a negative influence on CO2 emissions. In addition, the significance of the relationship between CO2 emissions and the four variables varied across the provinces based on their scale of economic development. Scenario simulations further showed that the scenario of middle economic growth, middle population increase, low urbanization growth, and high technology improvement (here referred to as Scenario BTU), constitutes the best development model for China to realize the future sustainable development. Based on these empirical findings, we also provide a number of policy recommendations with respect to the future mitigation of CO2 emissions.
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Data Availability Statement: All relevant data are
within the paper and its Supporting Information files.
Funding: This study was supported by National
Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.
71433008 and No. 41501175; http://www.nsfc.gov.cn/
) and Non-profit Industry Financial Program of
Ministry of Land and Resources of China (Grant No.
201411014-2). The funders had no role in study
design, data collection and analysis, decision to
publish, or preparation of the manuscript.
Competing Interests: The authors have declared
that no competing interests exist.
Global climate change—specifically, global warming—constitutes one of the most important
issues to face human beings in the 21st century [1]. That greenhouse gases, most notably carbon
dioxide (CO2) emissions from the combustion of fossil fuel, are the main influencing factor of
global warming which is now a matter of global consensus and, since CO2 emissions are closely
related to socioeconomic development, climate change has gone from being an issue for pure
scientific research to becoming an international political, economic and diplomatic hot topic
[2]. Locating the key influencing factors of CO2 emissions, in order to effectively curb these
emissions, is an increasingly important task, especially for China, the world’s largest developing
country [3]. Studies show that China—as the world’s largest energy consumer, consuming
nearly half of all coal produced in the year of 2008, and the world’s highest CO2 emitter,
accounting for one-quarter of the world’s CO2 emissions in the year of 2011 –has been
responsible for 80% of global increases in CO2 emissions since 2008 [4]. It is therefore vitally
important that an optimal development model be identified which has the capacity to enable China
to reduce CO2 emissions while maintaining economic growth. It is now generally recognised
that energy consumption is the key impact factor of CO2 emissions; in order to realise CO2
emissions reduction targets, though, we also need to examine other important influencing
factors in relation to CO2 emissions. Consequently, the following questions are critical to China’s
sustainable development: How does the scale of the population, the economic level, energy
intensity, and the level of urbanization affect CO2 emissions? Do CO2 emissions continue to
growth rapidly? Modelling and forecasting China’s CO2 emissions would allow us to determine
the optimal development model for future socioeconomic development.
Studies are increasingly being undertaken in order to examine the factors that affect CO2
emissions in a range of different countries and regions [5]. The existing literature addressing
the influencing factors of CO2 emissions mainly falls into four categories, which can be
differentiated in terms of different methods used in their studies. The first category of studies rely
upon the stochastic impact by regression on population, affluence (GDP) and technology
(IPAT) model, in its extended form—the STIRPAT model. The STIRPAT (IPAT) model is
one of the most popular methods for exploring the impact factors of CO2 (...truncated)