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Projections of Ebola outbreak size and duration with and without vaccine use in Équateur, Democratic Republic of Congo, as of May 27, 2018

America, 9 Brigham and Women's Hospital , Boston, MA , United States of America 3 Institute of General Medical Sciences, U01- GM087728, Dr. Lee Worden, Dr. Travis C Porco; Faucett Catalyst Fund, Dr. Anne W ... ) Acknowledgments cratic Republic of Congo. Author Contributions We thank the Ebola responders for their efforts in the 2018 EVD outbreak in E? quateur, DemoConceptualization: J. Daniel Kelly, Lee Worden, Eugene T

Products of Compartmental Models in Epidemiology

We show that many structured epidemic models may be described using a straightforward product structure in this paper. Such products, derived from products of directed graphs, may represent useful refinements including geographic and demographic structure, age structure, gender, risk groups, or immunity status. Extension to multistrain dynamics, that is, pathogen heterogeneity...

Products of Compartmental Models in Epidemiology

Travis C. Porco; ude.fscu@ocrop.sivart Received 28 January 2017; Accepted 28 June 2017; Published 16 August 2017 Academic Editor: Reinoud Maex Copyright © 2017 Lee Worden and Travis C. Porco. This is

Hamiltonian Analysis of Subcritical Stochastic Epidemic Dynamics

, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA Correspondence should be addressed to Lee Worden; Received 31 January 2017; Revised 7 June 2017; Accepted 12 June 2017; Published 28 August 2017 Academic Editor ... : Anwar Zeb Copyright © 2017 Lee Worden et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in

Hamiltonian Analysis of Subcritical Stochastic Epidemic Dynamics

We extend a technique of approximation of the long-term behavior of a supercritical stochastic epidemic model, using the WKB approximation and a Hamiltonian phase space, to the subcritical case. The limiting behavior of the model and approximation are qualitatively different in the subcritical case, requiring a novel analysis of the limiting behavior of the Hamiltonian system...

Short-term leprosy forecasting from an expert opinion survey

. Porco. Data curation: Michael S. Deiner, Alex Rittel, James C. Scott, Travis C. Porco. Formal analysis: Michael S. Deiner, Lee Worden, Alex Rittel, Travis C. Porco. Funding acquisition: Thomas M ... S. Deiner, Lee Worden, Alex Rittel, Sarah F. Ackley, Fengchen Liu, Laura Blum, James C. Scott, Thomas M. Lietman, Travis C. Porco. 11 / 13 12 / 13 1. World Health Organization. Handbook of

The Effect of Contact Investigations and Public Health Interventions in the Control and Prevention of Measles Transmission: A Simulation Study

Background Measles cases continue to occur despite its elimination status in the United States. To control transmission, public health officials confirm the measles diagnosis, identify close contacts of infectious cases, deliver public health interventions (i.e., post-exposure prophylaxis) among those who are eligible, and follow-up with the close contacts to determine overall...

Spatial heterogeneity in projected leprosy trends in India

Background Leprosy is caused by infection with Mycobacterium leprae and is characterized by peripheral nerve damage and skin lesions. The disease is classified into paucibacillary (PB) and multibacillary (MB) leprosy. The 2012 London Declaration formulated the following targets for leprosy control: (1) global interruption of transmission or elimination by 2020, and (2) reduction...

Evaluating Subcriticality during the Ebola Epidemic in West Africa

The 2014–2015 Ebola outbreak is the largest and most widespread to date. In order to estimate ongoing transmission in the affected countries, we estimated the weekly average number of secondary cases caused by one individual infected with Ebola throughout the infectious period for each affected West African country using a stochastic hidden Markov model fitted to case data from...