Climatic Change

http://link.springer.com/journal/10584

List of Papers (Total 622)

Indicators of climate change in agricultural systems

Climate change affects all segments of the agricultural enterprise, and there is mounting evidence that the continuing warming trend with shifting seasonality and intensity in precipitation will increase the vulnerability of agricultural systems. Agricultural is a complex system within the USA encompassing a large number of crops and livestock systems, and development of...

Diverse landscapes, diverse risks: synthesis of the special issue on climate change and adaptive capacity in a hotter, drier Southwestern United States

Assessing regional-scale vulnerability of agricultural systems to climate change and variability is vital in securing food and fiber systems, as well as sustaining rural livelihoods. Farmers, ranchers, and forest landowners rely on science-based, decision-relevant, and localized information to maintain production, ecological viability, and economic returns. This paper synthesizes...

Indices of Canada’s future climate for general and agricultural adaptation applications

This study evaluates regional-scale projections of climate indices that are relevant to climate change impacts in Canada. We consider indices of relevance to different sectors including those that describe heat conditions for different crop types, temperature threshold exceedances relevant for human beings and ecological ecosystems such as the number of days temperatures are...

CoastAdapt: an adaptation decision support framework for Australia’s coastal managers

Australia’s coastline is exposed to climate change and sea-level rise impacts from erosion, inundation, and changes to storm tracks and intensity. It accommodates about 80% of the population. Around 250 local councils are responsible for coastal management, with very different capacities to undertake adaptation. A decision support framework was developed to support coastal...

Pathways to deliberative capacity: the role of the IPCC

This article explores the arguments for expanding deliberation in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and scrutinizes their implications for the deliberative capacity of global environmental governance (GEG). An analysis of the IPCC is presented that builds on a systematic literature review and thus a broad set of scientific debates concerning the IPCC. Based on...

Providing future climate projections using multiple models and methods: insights from the Philippines

To meet the growing demand for climate change information to guide national and local adaptation decision-making in the Philippines, the climate science and services community is producing an increasing volume of future climate data using a range of modelling approaches. However, there is a significant methodological challenge in how to best compare and combine information...

Co-designing adaptation decision support: meeting common and differentiated needs

As exposure to climate change increases, there is a growing need for effective adaptation decision support products across public, private and community sectors and at all scales (local, regional, national, international). Numerous guidance products have been developed, but it is not clear to what extent they meet end-user needs, especially as development has been fragmented and...

Overcoming knowledge barriers to adaptation using a decision support framework

A decision support and information delivery framework, CoastAdapt, has been built to support the coastal adaptation community in Australia to take action to address climate change and sea-level rise. For such frameworks to be useful, used and long-lived, their development requires collaboration between creators and potential users. Therefore, we undertook extensive consultation...

Managing cropland and rangeland for climate mitigation: an expert elicitation on soil carbon in California

Understanding the magnitude of and uncertainty around soil carbon flux (SCF) is important in light of California’s efforts to increase SCF (from the atmosphere to soils) for climate change mitigation. SCF depends, to a great extent, on how soils are managed. Here, we summarize the results of an elicitation of soil science and carbon cycle experts aiming to characterize...

The Eldgjá eruption: timing, long-range impacts and influence on the Christianisation of Iceland

The Eldgjá lava flood is considered Iceland’s largest volcanic eruption of the Common Era. While it is well established that it occurred after the Settlement of Iceland (circa 874 CE), the date of this great event has remained uncertain. This has hampered investigation of the eruption’s impacts, if any, on climate and society. Here, we use high-temporal resolution glaciochemical...

The implications of the United Nations Paris Agreement on climate change for globally significant biodiversity areas

Climate change is already affecting species and their distributions. Distributional range changes have occurred and are projected to intensify for many widespread plants and animals, creating associated risks to many ecosystems. Here, we estimate the climate change-related risks to the species in globally significant biodiversity conservation areas over a range of climate...

Cutting with both arms of the scissors: the economic and political case for restrictive supply-side climate policies

Proponents of climate change mitigation face difficult choices about which types of policy instrument(s) to pursue. The literature on the comparative evaluation of climate policy instruments has focused overwhelmingly on economic analyses of instruments aimed at restricting demand for greenhouse gas emissions (especially carbon taxes and cap-and-trade schemes) and, to some extent...

Crop modelling: towards locally relevant and climate-informed adaptation

A gap between the potential and practical realisation of adaptation exists: adaptation strategies need to be both climate-informed and locally relevant to be viable. Place-based approaches study local and contemporary dynamics of the agricultural system, whereas climate impact modelling simulates climate-crop interactions across temporal and spatial scales. Crop-climate modelling...

Identification of data-driven Dutch dietary patterns that benefit the environment and are healthy

More sustainable dietary patterns are needed to mitigate global warming. This study aims to identify data-driven healthy dietary patterns that benefit the environment. In EPIC-NL, diet was assessed using a 178-item FFQ in 36,203 participants aged 20–70 years between 1993 and 1997. The Dutch Healthy Diet index 2015 (DHD15-index) was used to score healthiness of the diet. As proxy...

Food security outcomes under a changing climate: impacts of mitigation and adaptation on vulnerability to food insecurity

Climate change is a potential threat to achieving food security, particularly in the most food insecure regions. However, interpreting climate change projections to better understand the potential impacts of a changing climate on food security outcomes is challenging. This paper addresses this challenge through presenting a framework that enables rapid country-level assessment of...

Anti-fossil fuel norms

Historically, climate governance initiatives and associated scholarship have all but ignored the potential for “global moral norms” to bring about changes in the political conditions for global climate mitigation. This is surprising, since global moral norms are widely employed—as both a mode of governance and an analytical framework—in other domains of global governance, from...

The potential impacts of 21st century climatic and population changes on human exposure to the virus vector mosquito Aedes aegypti

The mosquito Aedes (Ae). aegypti transmits the viruses that cause dengue, chikungunya, Zika and yellow fever. We investigate how choosing alternate emissions and/or socioeconomic pathways may modulate future human exposure to Ae. aegypti. Occurrence patterns for Ae. aegypti for 2061–2080 are mapped globally using empirically downscaled air temperature and precipitation...

Future risk of record-breaking summer temperatures and its mitigation

The probability that summer temperatures in the future will exceed the hottest on record during 1920–2014 is projected to increase at all land locations with global warming. Within the BRACE project framework we investigate the sensitivity of this projected change in probability to the choice of emissions scenario using two large ensembles of simulations with the Community Earth...

Simulated differences in 21st century aridity due to different scenarios of greenhouse gases and aerosols

Aridity, defined as the ratio of precipitation (P) to potential evapotranspiration (PET) over land, is critical to natural ecosystems and agricultural production. Global climate models project global decreases of P/PET (drying) in the 21st century. We examine the uncertainty of aridity projections due to scenarios of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols with three sets of...

Estimating impacts of North Atlantic tropical cyclones using an index of damage potential

An index of North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) damage potential due to winds and coastal surge is developed using seasonal climate variables of relative sea surface temperature and steering flow. These climate variables are proxies for the key damaging TC parameters of intensity, size, and forward speed that constitute an existing cyclone damage potential index. This climate...

The safe carbon budget

Cumulative emissions drive peak global warming and determine the carbon budget needed to keep temperature below 2 or 1.5 °C. This safe carbon budget is low if uncertainty about the transient climate response is high and risk tolerance (willingness to accept risk of overshooting the temperature target) is low. Together with energy costs, this budget determines the optimal carbon...

Climate response of rainfed versus irrigated farms: the bias of farm heterogeneity in irrigation

Researchers who do not take into account farm heterogeneity in implementing specific climate change adaptation options might significantly bias their findings. To prove this point, this paper focusses on irrigation as an adaptation option to climate change and highlights the fact that there is no such thing as “irrigation.” Instead, different farms consider water management...

Correction to: The spatial distribution of Republican and Democratic climate opinions at state and local scales

The referenced publication included a methodological error that affects a portion of the reported results for registered Democrats by about 1 percentage point on average.