Nature Climate Change

Nature Climate Change is a monthly journal dedicated to publishing the most significant and cutting-edge research on the nature, underlying causes or impacts of global climate change and its implications for the economy, policy and the world at large. All editorial decisions are made by a team of full-time professional editors.

List of Papers (Total 864)

Onshore intensification of subtropical western boundary currents in a warming climate

Subtropical western boundary currents (WBCs) refer to swift narrow oceanic currents that flow along the western edges of global subtropical ocean basins. Earlier studies indicated that the WBCs are extending poleward under a warming climate. However, owing to limited observations and coarse resolution of climate models, how greenhouse warming may affect the zonal structure of the...

Tracing inclusivity at UNFCCC conferences through side events and interest group dynamics

Inclusivity and transparency are the foundations of procedural justice in climate governance. However, concerns persist around the influence of business interest groups at United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Conferences of Parties (COPs). COPs have increased in size and complexity, obscuring agendas and organizational relationships. Here we analyse the...

Worldwide rooftop photovoltaic electricity generation may mitigate global warming

Rooftop photovoltaic (RPV) is often understood as a niche contribution to climate change mitigation. However, the global potential of RPVs to mitigate global warming is unknown. Here we map the global rooftop area at 1-km resolution, quantifying 286,393 km2 of rooftops worldwide through geospatial data mining and artificial intelligence techniques. Using nine advanced Earth...

A year above 1.5 °C signals that Earth is most probably within the 20-year period that will reach the Paris Agreement limit

The temperature goals of the Paris Agreement are measured as 20-year averages exceeding a pre-industrial baseline. The calendar year of 2024 was announced as the first above 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels, but the implications for the corresponding temperature goal are unclear. Here we show that, without very stringent climate mitigation, the first year above 1.5 °C...

Twelve months at 1.5 °C signals earlier than expected breach of Paris Agreement threshold

June 2024 was the twelfth month in a row with global mean surface temperatures at least 1.5 °C above pre-industrial conditions, but it is not clear if this implies a failure to meet the Paris Agreement goal of limiting long-term warming below this threshold. Here we show that in climate model simulations, the long-term Paris Agreement target is usually crossed well before such a...

Limited accountability and awareness of corporate emissions target outcomes

Firms are increasingly announcing targets to reduce their carbon emissions, but it is unclear whether firms are held accountable for these targets. Here we examine emissions targets that ended in 2020 to investigate the final target outcomes, the transparency of target outcomes and potential consequences for missed emissions targets. A total of 1,041 firms had emissions targets...

Different technology packages for aluminium smelters worldwide to deliver the 1.5 °C target

Production of aluminium, one of the most energy-intensive metals, is challenging for mitigation efforts. Regional mitigation strategies often neglect the emissions patterns of individual smelters and fail to guide aluminium producers’ efforts to reduce GHG emissions. Here we build a global aluminium GHG emissions inventory (CEADs-AGE), which includes 249 aluminium smelters...

Tropical cyclone risk for global ecosystems in a changing climate

Coastal ecosystems provide a range of services including erosion prevention, clean water provision and carbon sequestration. With climate change, the rapid change in frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones may alter the composition of the ecosystems themselves potentially degrading the services they provide. Here we classify global ecoregions into dependent, resilient and...

Smoother sea ice with fewer pressure ridges in a more dynamic Arctic

Pressure ridges, formed by sea ice deformation, affect momentum transfer in the Arctic Ocean and support a larger biomass than the surrounding-level ice. Although trends in Arctic sea ice thickness and concentration are well documented, changes in ridge morphology remain unclear. This study provides airborne-based evidence of a shift towards a smoother ice surface, with fewer...

The changing nature of future Arctic marine heatwaves and its potential impacts on the ecosystem

Marine heatwaves (MHWs), defined as extreme ocean warming episodes, have strengthened over the past decades. High-resolution climate models improve understanding of MHWs under global warming, but such events in the future Arctic are currently overlooked. In a high-resolution climate model, we find Arctic MHWs intensify on orders of magnitude during the warming twenty-first...

Climate change and terrigenous inputs decrease the efficiency of the future Arctic Ocean’s biological carbon pump

The Arctic experiences climate changes that are among the fastest in the world and affect all Earth system components. Despite expected increase in terrigenous inputs to the Arctic Ocean, their impacts on biogeochemical cycles are currently largely neglected in IPCC-like models. Here we used a state-of-the-art high-resolution ocean biogeochemistry model that includes carbon and...

Perceived climate change impacts and adaptation responses in ten African mountain regions

Mountain regions are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts. Yet, little is known about local adaptation responses in African mountain regions, especially if these are incremental or transformational. First, using household questionnaires, we interviewed 1,500 farmers across ten African mountain regions to investigate perceived climate change impacts and adaptation...

Climate justice beliefs related to climate action and policy support around the world

Climate justice is increasingly prominent in climate change communication and advocacy but little is known about public understanding of the concept or how widely it resonates with different groups. In our global survey of 5,627 adults in 11 countries spanning the global north and south, most participants (66.2%) had never heard of climate justice. Nonetheless, endorsement of...

Emergence of a climate oscillation in the Arctic Ocean due to global warming

Global warming is expected to be able to trigger abrupt transitions in various components of the climate system. Most studies focus on abrupt changes in the mean state of the system, while transitions in climate variability are less well understood. Here, we use multimodel simulations to show that sea-ice loss in the Arctic can trigger a critical transition in internal...

Internet image search outputs propagate climate change sentiment and impact policy support

A critical step in tackling climate change involves structural, system-level changes facilitating action. Despite their ubiquity, little is known about how internet search algorithms portray climate change, and how these portrayals impact concern and action. In a sample of 49 countries, we found that nationwide climate concern, but not nation-level climate impact, predicted the...