Comparative Experimental FWA & FOWA Aggregated VLCSPPs

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL of ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGIES-IJET Burak Omer Saracoglu et al., Vol.4, No.2, 2018 Experimental FWA & FOWA Aggregated VLCSPPs' LUR Estimation for GIS Based VEED Burak Omer Saracoglu* *Orhantepe Mahallesi, Tekel Caddesi, Istanbul, Turkey ‡ Burak Omer Saracoglu, Orhantepe Mahallesi, Tekel Caddesi, Istanbul, Turkey, Received: 16.12.2017 Accepted:16.05.2018 Abstract- Solar power conversion technologies are photovoltaics (PV), concentrated solar power (CSP), and concentrated photovoltaics (CPV). These technologies need sufficient amount of appropriate land. In super grids and Global Grid, large sized power plants play the key role, so that this study only focuses on very large solar power plants (VLSPP). VLSPPs are defined as the power plants that have the installed power of 1.000 MW (peak in PV) or more in this study. Solar land use requirements (LUR) should be studied, analyzed and estimated for each solar power technology. This study investigates only the LUR of very large concentrated solar power plants (VLCSPPs). Under unsharp conditions, a fuzzy weighted average/weight averaging (fuzzy WA: FWA) aggregated and an ordered fuzzy weighted average/weight averaging (fuzzy OWA: FOWA) aggregated solar LUR models on a worldwide basis are built for LUR prediction on the geospatial information systems (GIS) at the very early engineering design (VEED) phase. These two models are presented in a comparative way. Five experimental criteria (direct normal irradiance: DNI, engineering design year, net installed power, cooling method, storage capacity) are only included in these models. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of land area (hectares) and solar field aperture area (m2) are respectively %331,35 (FWA), %505,14 (FOWA) and %914,86 (FWA), % 1374,45 (FOWA). Keywords Concentrated solar power, FuzzME, Fuzzy Ordered Weighted Average, Fuzzy Weighted Average, land use requirement. 1. Introduction Solar power can supply the largest electricity amount to humans by 89.000 TWp theoretical, 58.000 TWc extractable, and 7.500 TWc technical world potential estimations (TWp: terawatt equivalent photonic fuel power, TW c: terawatt equivalent chemical fuel power) [1]. It is presented that only 0,00015 TWc was supplied in 2001 [1]. The research, development, demonstration, and deployment (RD3) engineers try to increase the usage of this resource. In today's capabilities, there are three solar power technologies: photovoltaics (PV) [2], concentrated solar power (concentrating solar power, concentrated solar thermal) (CSP) [3], concentrated photovoltaics (CPV) [4]. Today, the CSP technology is usually classified under parabolic trough, linear Fresnel, power tower, and parabolic dish technologies [5,6] as shown in Fig.1. This study investigates all of these CSP technologies at once. Line Focus Systems Parabolic Linear Trough Fresnel Point Focus Systems Power Parabolic Tower Dish Fig. 1. CSP technology families (Source: [5,6]). The most efficient investment approach in solar power plants is by economies of scale approach (see [7] for economies of scale). As a result, large size solar power plants shall first be investigated in detail. Very large concentrated solar power plant (VLCSPP) concept is researched in this manner. The definition isn't clear yet, but it is discriminated as the CSP plants that have the installed power of 1.000 MW or more [8]. The most effective way of generating and consuming of electricity is also by considering economies of scale. Therefore, super grids and Global Grid are researched and 70 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL of ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGIES-IJET Burak Omer Saracoglu et al., Vol.4, No.2, 2018 tried to be modelled and designed (e.g. European Supergrid [9], Supergrid for America [10], DESERTEC [11], Gobitec [12,13], Asian Super Grid [12,13], Global Grid [14]). A detailed literature review on Google Scholar [15] and Directory of Open Access Journals [16] was performed by some key terms in this study. It had been observed in previous studies that Google Scholar had been the most dominant academic publication online database (highest number of documents for each search term: author's experience). Moreover, both of these online websites had "open access" publications, so that all RD3 engineers would be able to find these publications. The search term of this study was "land use" and "concentrated solar". Only English documents were searched on Google Scholar (1930 results) and Directory of Open Access Journals (0 results) until 21/12/2015. The titles and abstracts were first reviewed and the related documents (papers, reports, presentations, etc.) with this study were saved in their specific folder (only 19 studies). After this observation, previously known documents on some websites (e.g. [17-21]) were also once more checked. Only a few documents could be added, but one of them was the most important one (Ong et.al.'s study at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL): author's point of view). Ong et.al. studied the direct land use ("disturbed land due to physical infrastructure development") and the total land use ("all land enclosed by the site boundary") requirements of the utility scale ground mounted small and large photovoltaic (PV) and concentrating solar power (CSP) plants in the United States [22]. There were 25 projects with a capacity (MWAC) of 3747 in the total land use requirements for CSP plants (parabolic trough, tower, dish Stirling, linear Fresnel) analysis. The capacity weighted average land use (acres/MWAC) was presented as 10 and the generation weighted average land use (acres/GWh/yr) was given as 3,5. There were 18 projects with a capacity of 2218 in the direct land use requirements analysis. The capacity weighted average land use was presented as 7,7 and the generation weighted average land use was presented as 2,7. In their dataset, the least installed power (MW AC) was 1,5 (Maricopa Solar Project with Stirling Engine) followed by 5 (Sierra SunTower with tower). The most installed power was 370 (Ivanpah all with tower) followed by 354 (SEGS all with parabolic trough) and 280 (Solana all with parabolic trough) [22]. Purohit et.al. investigated the possibility of generating electricity from CSP technologies (parabolic trough collector, linear Fresnel reflector, central receiver system: tower with heliostats, parabolic dish) in the Northwestern India [23]. They presented that the area (collector/heliostat) (m2) was 34–550 (parabolic trough), 40–120 (central receiver), 92 (dish). They also added that the land requirement (m2/MW) was 40000 (parabolic trough), 83600 (central receiver), 18000 for linear Fresnel and 16000 for dish [23]. Other studies also gave some similar information (see [24-29]). It was understood that fuzzy WA and OWA aggregated based models hadn't been applied in any CSP LUR analysis study until 21/12/2015. Hence, this study is also one of the first studies that step up VLCSPP designs on the World, howev (...truncated)