Delinquent Development in Dutch Childhood Arrestees: Developmental Trajectories, Risk Factors and Co-morbidity with Adverse Outcomes during Adolescence

L. van Domburgh 0 2 R. Vermeiren 0 2 A. A. J. Blokland 0 2 Th. A. H. Doreleijers 0 2 0 R. Vermeiren Department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry , Curium-LUMC, Leiden, The Netherlands 1 ) Department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry, VUMC Medical Center , P/a De Bascule, P.O. Box 303, 1115 ZG Duivendrecht, The Netherlands 2 A. A. J. Blokland Netherlands Institute for the Study of Crime and Law Enforcement (NSCR) , Leiden, The Netherlands Heterogeneity of re-offending patterns was studied in a group of 287 male early onset offenders who were first arrested before age 12. By combining data on the frequency and severity of offending as registered by the police over a 5-year follow-up period, three delinquent trajectories were identified; low, escalating, and high level re-offenders. Predicting group membership by individual and environmental characteristics known to the police at the time of the first arrest proved difficult. Compared to low level re-offenders, escalators were older and more often came from disadvantaged neighborhoods. High level re-offenders were also older at onset, more often had a non-Western ethnic background, and initially committed more vandalism. Furthermore, at the first police encounter, the police reacted more severely towards those who later became high level re-offenders. Finally, high and escalating re-offenders more often had other adverse outcomes, such as criminal victimization and Child Welfare Agency involvement. - Childhood onset delinquents are known to be at high risk for developing persistent and serious offending careers (Loeber and Farrington 2000; Espiritu et al. 2001; Moffitt 1993; Krohn et al. 2001). Specifically, a police arrest during childhood was shown to predict frequent and persistent reoffending (Snyder 2001; Krohn et al. 2001). Still, despite indications of continuity, discontinuity is substantial as well, as not all childhood arrestees grow up to be persistent offenders (Krohn et al. 2001). In order to better target early intervention efforts at those who carry the highest risk of prolongation, factors within the subgroup of childhood onset delinquents that help to classify future persisters from desisters and non-recidivists need being identified. To this end, this study investigates recidivism over a 5-year followup period in a sample of juveniles first arrested by the Dutch police under the age of 12.1 Our aim is to examine whether distinct delinquency trajectories can be identified based on the frequency and severity of offending and to 1 Although according to Dutch law, children are not criminally liable below age 12, children detained by the police due to illegal behavior are called arrestees in this paper. Children are also called arrestees if not taken to the police station but reprimanded on the street. Status offences are not included in this definition. examine whether these trajectories can be predicted by the childs individual and environmental risk factors and offence characteristics as registered by the police. Developmental Theories on Early Onset Delinquency While most youths seem to only temporarily engage in delinquency during adolescence and refrain from committing more serious offences, a small proportion (67%) persists in offending well beyond adolescence. This group offends at a high rate and commits serious crimes, all too often interpersonal violence (Moffitt 1993). An early onset of antisocial behavior is an important risk factor of such persistent, high frequency and serious delinquent trajectory (Moffitt 1993; Loeber and Farrington 2001; Patterson et al. 1998; Lahey and Waldman 2005). Only recently, academics have started focusing on subgroup specific delinquent trajectories and related individual and environmental differences within the early onset offender group. While some developmental theories delineate an etiologically distinct subgroup of early onset offenders (Moffitt 1993; Patterson 1996), others argue that a higher risk of chronic offending in this early onset group results from a higher prevalence of and a longer exposure to risk factors (e.g. Loeber et al. 1998; Gottfredson and Hirschi 1990). In what is currently one of the most referenced developmental typologies of offending, Moffitt (1993) asserts that an early onset of antisocial behavior results from a combination of neuropsychological difficulties and inadequate parentchild interaction. Given that early onset delinquency does not originate from peer group dynamics, these youths are more likely to engage in soloas opposed to groupoffending. In later elaborations of the taxonomic model, Moffitt et al. (2002) distinguished early onset high level chronics from low level chronics, while both groups show prolonged delinquent involvement, severity is at different levels. Isolating pathologies such as depression are expected to differentiate both groups, with the low level group carrying most problems. On the whole, high levels of individual impairment of children on either of these persistent trajectories predispose them to disproportionately engage in serious and person-orientated offending. Similarly distinguishing childhood and adolescence onset delinquents Patterson et al. (1998) described disruptive family processes as a major cause of early onset offending. Such processes lead to childhood antisocial behavior and shape peer interaction patterns in late childhood and adolescence. Disruptive peer processes and engagement with antisocial peers increasingly lead to offending outside the home and eventually to chronic offending (Patterson 1996; Patterson et al. 1998). Contrary to Moffitts taxonomy, the Patterson typology thus expects early onset persistent offenders to mainly engage in group offending. Finally, Lahey and Waldman (2005) expect those children showing childhood onset problem behavior but living in more adaptive social environments to improve during childhood and not to be at high risk of developing persistent and serious delinquent trajectories. Among the dimensional theories of offending, the developmental pathway model of Loeber et al. (1998) focuses on offence specific pathways which lead to distinct forms of serious offending. Serious offending at an earlier age indicates being further along a developmental pathway and therefore being at higher risk of persisting in serious offending. In contrast, Gottfredson and Hirschi (1990) do not predict that frequent offenders will be more likely to become serious offenders than less frequent offenders. Finally, there are developmental theories that stress offenders behavioral plasticity and the influence of endogenous factors on the development of their criminal careers (Sampson and Laub 2005; Thornberry and Krohn 2001). Under the assumption that occurrences of these contextual changes are to a considerable degree independent of the childs individual characteristics, these authors seriously question the value of individual risk factors in a priori predicting l (...truncated)