Uncertainties within South Africa's goal of universal access to electricity by 2012

Uncertainties within South Africa’s goal of universal access to electricity by 2012 B Bekker Department of Electrical Engineering, University of Cape Town, South Africa C T Gaunt Department of Electrical Engineering, University of Cape Town, South Africa A Eberhard Graduate School of Business, University of Cape Town, South Africa A Marquard Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town, South Africa Abstract The South African President in 2004 stated the policy goal of universal access to electricity by 2012. This goal requires a significant adjustment of annual connection targets and electrification budgets, based on accurate knowledge of the number of electrified and non-electrified households in South Africa. Published data on the state of electrification, however, varies widely, with reported proportions of households electrified in 2005 varying from 57% to 80%. In addition, apparent discrepancies of tens of thousands of connections exist between annual new connection rates reported in different official publications. Different definitions of Universal Access further impact strategic planning. This paper explores these uncertainties in relation to South Africa’s goal of Universal Access by 2012 by focusing on the availability and accuracy of South African electrification data, and the definitions, targets and electrification budgets associated with Universal Access. Keywords: Universal access, electrification, connections, targets, uncertainty, households 1. Introduction South Africa has made remarkable progress in widening access to electricity. Prior to 1990, less than a third of households1 had access. A decade later that proportion had doubled. However, in recent years the programme has slowed, and it now seems unlikely that the targets set by government will be met. The dominant planning assumption within 4 South Africa’s national electrification programme during the 1990s was that 80% of all households in South Africa would be electrified by 2012 (Marquard et al, 2007). This target was, however, revised in 2004 when President Thabo Mbeki, in his parliamentary State of the Nation Address, said ‘...with a strengthened local government working with our state enterprise, Eskom, we will, within the next eight years, ensure than each household has access to electricity’ (Mbeki, 2004). This Universal Access goal required a significant adjustment of the strategic plan for electrification put forward by the Department of Minerals and Energy (DME), which took over from the National Electricity Regulator (NER)2 as coordinator of South Africa’s electrification programme in 2002. Accurate knowledge of the past and current state of electrification in South Africa is required to accurately adjust this strategic plan, especially in terms of the annual connection targets and electrification budgets. Published data on the state of electrification, however, varies widely depending on the source. In addition, apparent discrepancies in annual connection numbers exist in different publications by the DME after December 2003. The definition of Universal Access further impacts strategic planning: Mbeki’s ‘each household’ may be interpreted as 100% of 2012 households, or as 100% of households at the time when the policy was first proposed (2004). The latter definition appears to be used by the DME in its strategic plan, which in effect means that an estimated 3 million new households formed between 2004 and 2012 might still be without electricity once the Journal of Energy in Southern Africa • Vol 19 No 2 • May 2008 DME’s 2012 Universal Access goal has been reached. This paper explores how the availability and accuracy of South African electrification data, and the definitions, targets and electrification budgets affect the possibility of achieving the Government’s goal of Universal Access by 2012. 2. Availability and accuracy of electrification data State agencies are the main source of electrification data due to budget and access restrictions affecting individual researchers. Since resources are allocated for data collection and analysis in terms of specific state policies, the evolution of policy goals has a major impact on the availability of electrification data. For example, data on connection rates and proportions of households electrified is available, while data on other more complex phenomena such as disconnections, illegal and informal connections3 (which are apparently widespread) is difficult to obtain, because no effort is made by state agencies to compile this information and place it in the public domain. 2.1 Sources of electrification data Table 1 summarises the total number of new electricity connections made each year since 1990, based on various official data sources. For most years from December 1995 until December 2003 the NER published the Lighting Up South Africa report (NER, 2003), which gave a mostly consistent and complete overview from 1991 to 2003 of the annual number of new connections, including the connections made by Eskom and Local Authorities, the number of urban, rural, off-grid, school and clinic connections, and the total annual capital expenditure and cost per connection. In most years up to 2004, the NER also published another source of electrification data in the Electricity Supply Statistics report (NER, 2004) which identified the number of domestic electricity customers in South Africa. Since 31 December 2003 (when the last Lighting Up South Africa reporting period ends) the DME’s annual reports were the primary public source of electrification data. The DME base the electrification data in these reports on data submitted to it on a monthly basis by Eskom, municipalities and non-grid service providers licensed to distribute electricity, in a format prescribed by the Division of Revenue Act (DoRA). Eskom’s annual reports also publish electrification data, but these relate only to connections made by Eskom and therefore do not reflect the state of electrification in South Africa as a whole. A statistically derived indication of the proportion of households electrified is published in Stats SA’s annual household surveys and national censuses, which report the number of households in South Africa that use electricity for lighting. As lighting is typically the most basic application of electricity in a household, statistics on its utilization are taken as an indication of the households electrified. 2.2 Inconsistencies in DME publications Since 2003, DME publications have been the main public source of detailed electrification data, as noted above. However, a number of data inconsistencies are apparent, as discussed below. 2.2.1 Annual connections The NER reported 278 762 connections for the January 2003 to December 2003 period (NER, 2003). The DME annual report for the period April 2003 to March 2004 shows 230 967 grid and offgrid connections for the year (DME, 2004), inconsistent with the DME’s 2004 strategic report, which (...truncated)