Climate change, ecosystem services and migration in the Marshall Islands: are they related?

Climatic Change https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02648-7 Climate change, ecosystem services and migration in the Marshall Islands: are they related? Kees van der Geest 1 Brittany Wheeler 4 2 2 3 & Maxine Burkett & Juno Fitzpatrick & Mark Stege & Received: 8 August 2019 / Accepted: 22 December 2019/ # The Author(s) 2020 Abstract As one of the lowest-lying island nation states in the world, the Republic of the Marshall Islands is vulnerable to sea level rise, flooding and the associated impacts on soil and water salinity. Persistent drought is further affecting agricultural production and access to drinking water, and heat stress is increasingly common. The number of Marshallese people residing in the USA has increased rapidly from 6650 in 2000 to an estimated 30,000 in 2018. While we know that climate change is already affecting the Marshall Islands and that there are significant migration flows, we do not know to what extent people already migrate because of climate change. This paper addresses this gap and presents findings from interdisciplinary fieldwork in the Marshall Islands and destination areas in the USA. The research team conducted a survey (N = 278), focus group discussions, expert interviews and a geo-spatial analysis of flood extent and migration rates to study the relationship between climatic events, ecosystem services and migration. The results show that respondents primarily cite education, health care, work and family visits as migration drivers, and only few mention climate impacts or environmental change. However, respondents do identify impacts of climate change on their livelihoods, health and safety, and the study finds significant correlations between climate impacts, trends in ecosystem services and migration propensities at household level. Furthermore, 62% of Marshallese respondents in the USA indicated that climate change affects their decision to return to Marshall Islands in the future. * Kees van der Geest 1 United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security, Bonn, Germany 2 University of Hawaii at Mānoa, Honolulu, HI, USA 3 Marshall Islands Conservation Society, Majuro, Marshall Islands 4 Clark University, Worcester, MA, USA Climatic Change Keywords Climate change . Migration . Ecosystem services . Sea level rise . Drought . Pacific 1 Introduction Due to their small size and low elevation, Pacific Islands face considerable risk of inundation, coastal erosion and loss of territory when sea levels rise due to global warming and natural variability (Nurse et al. 2014). Media outlets frequently speak of the ‘sinking islands’ of the pacific1 and portray their inhabitants as ‘climate refugees”.2 The science is more nuanced about the future of the Pacific Islands and the need to relocate. Some research confirms the sinking island narrative, with the important correction that islands become uninhabitable due to salinity intrusion long before they disappear under water (Storlazzi et al. 2018). Other research emphasises uncertainty in projections and adaptive capacity of human and natural systems (Barnett 2017; Kench et al. 2018). The Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) is a nation of widely dispersed, low-lying coral atolls and islands, with approximately 70 miles2 of land area scattered across 750,000 miles2 of ocean (Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs 2015). The Marshall Islands consist of 29 coral atolls and 5 raised coral islands. Average elevation for the RMI is approximately 2 m above mean sea level (Owen et al. 2016). As one of the lowest-lying island nation states in the world, the RMI is acutely vulnerable to sea level rise, flooding and the associated intrusion of saltwater into crucial freshwater supplies. Persistent drought is further affecting agricultural production and access to drinking water. Many Marshallese communities are already experiencing these changes that affect the habitability of their islands (Keener et al. 2012; Marra et al. 2017). Within the Marshall Islands, there are substantial migration flows between islands, particularly from outer islands to the capital Majuro. In 2011, more than half (52.3%) the population of the RMI resided on Majuro, against only 24.1% at the time of the first population census (in 1958). Besides internal migration, many Marshallese are migrating internationally, particularly to the USA. The number of Marshallese residing in the USA has risen rapidly, from 6650 in the year 2000 to 22,434 in 2010 (US Census Bureau 2001: 9; US Census Bureau 2012: 14).3 To compare, the total population residing in the RMI was 53,158 at the time of the last population census in 2011 (Republic of the Marshall Islands 2012: 13). Currently, it is estimated that approximately 30,000 Marshallese reside in the USA (Van der Geest et al. 2019a). There is a bilateral agreement between the Republic of the Marshall Islands and the USA—the Compact of Free Association—that allows Marshallese people to live and work in the USA without a visa (McElfish 2016). The current agreement expires in 2023, and it is expected that migration to the USA will increase in the years before (Morris et al. 2019), as it did prior to the previous amendment in 2003 (Graham 2008). 1 See for instance: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/24/opinion/kiribati-climate-change.html; https://www. theguardian.com/guardianweekly/story/0,12674,1108791,00.html 2 See for instance: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/apr/05/disaster-alley-australia-could-be-setto-receive-new-wave-of-climate-refugees; https://www.nytimes.com/tbooks/book/climate-refugees-how-globalchange-is-displacing-millions/format/pdf/ 3 The source for the total Marshallese population in the USA in 2000 is US Census Bureau (2001: 9). The source for the total Marshallese population in the USA in 2010 is the 2010 Census Summary File 2, Profile of General Population and Housing Characteristics: 2010. Climatic Change While existing research shows that climate change is already affecting the Marshall Islands (Marra et al. 2017) and population censuses show that there are significant migration flows, it is not clear to what extent Marshallese people are already migrating because of climate change and its impact on ecosystem services and livelihoods, which is the topic of this article. Ecosystem services can be defined as the benefits that people obtain from the natural environment (MEA (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment) 2005). Central to the research is the notion that people do not migrate because of climate change as such, but because of the way climate change affects their livelihoods, food security and well-being (Afifi et al. 2016). This is shown schematically in the conceptual framework in Fig. 1. The framework further acknowledges that impacts of climate change on people are often caused by climate impacts on ecosystems and the services they provide (Black et al. 2011; Foresight 2011; Zommers et al. 2016). Hence, the question thi (...truncated)