A monetary model of global peace and health

Globalization and Health (2024) 20:28 Bastanifar Globalization and Health https://doi.org/10.1186/s12992-024-01029-9 Open Access RESEARCH A monetary model of global peace and health Iman Bastanifar1*    Abstract Background This study aims to expand on the concept of peace and health by drawing from Keynes’ theory of the economic consequences of peace, in light of the global pandemic experienced in 2020 due to COVID_19. Methods In this paper, I will elaborate on the concept of ‘security’, as an indicator of peace in the time of biological shocks, in order to expand the definition of Keynesian precautionary motivation. This puts forth a new monetary policy model developed to make contributions to achieving global peace. In so doing, I will calculate the optimal growth rate of discount rate through utilizing the Global Peace Index (GPI), adjusted by the Case Fatality Risk (CFR) of COVID-19 in a dynamic shopping time monetary model. This analysis is comprised of the top 15 GDP countries as well as the 10 most and least peaceful countries in 2020. Results The results indicate that households in more peaceful and healthy countries tend to hold less money compared to those in less peaceful and healthy countries. Besides, the discount rate needs to be reduced due to the outbreak of COVID-19 and the decrease in the level of peace in the economy. Conclusion Insofar as the imposition of fines through international legal circles on countries with an insignificant health and peace policy will increase the cost of liquidity, other alternative methods of financing will be affor dable for the countries. Keywords Global Peace, COVID-19, Money, Shopping time JEL E58, N40 Introduction Keynes criticized the financial impositions on Germany by the Treaty of Versailles. In his work The Economic Consequences of the Peace, Keynes [1] argued that the exertion of financial pressures on German would lead to its economic demolitions as well as that of Europe and the rest of the world. Keynes’s expectations became true when the treaty failed, leading to the Locarno Treaties. These treaties enhanced relations between Germany and *Correspondence: Iman Bastanifar 1 Department of Economics, Faculty of Administrative Sciences and Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran the other European powers. Therefore, political treaties must consider the economic aspect of peace. If COVID-19 impacts countries as a global enemy and disrupts international security, peace, and economic stability, a decision must be made to compensate for the resulting losses. This decision-making process in an uncertain situation within the framework of monetary policy should involve determining the underlying variables in monetary economics, such as the discount rate. As Keynes argued in 1920, Insofar as imposing excessive penalties on Germany would be negatively consequential to the economy of the world, opting for a non-optimal discount rate can also lead to negative consequences like inflation. According to Keynes, inflation is the best way to overturn a society based on a capitalist system [2], 79). Therefore drawing on Keynes’s idea of "The Economic © The Author(s) 2024. Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data. Bastanifar Globalization and Health (2024) 20:28 Consequences of the Peace", a model can be designed to determine the optimal discount rate in the context of COVID-19, therby enhancing economic resilience. Peace should not be deemed as an out-dated issue which has been solely discussed in economics by Keynes in 1920. This notion, however, has been widely discussed nowadays as one of the Sustainable Development Goals for countries by the United Nations in 2023. According to the United Nations’ Sustainable Development report in 2023, progress and modern rough clashes around the world are wrecking the worldwide way to peace [3]. Alarmingly, the year 2022 saw a more than 50 per cent increment in conflict-related civilian passings generally due to the war in Ukraine. At the end of 2022, 108.4 million individuals were coercively uprooted around the globe, with an increment of 19 million compared with the conclusion of 2021 and two and a half times the number of a decadeprior. In 2021, the world experienced the most noteworthy number of deliberate manslaughters within the past two decades. Structural shameful acts, imbalances and developing human rights challenges are putting serene and comprehensive social orders encourage out of reach. To meet the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 16 (Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions) by 2030, taking effective actionsare required to reestablish belief, reinforce the capacity of securing equity for all, and encourage tranquil moves to maintainable advancement. The concept of peace, within the historical context following the World War I, has largely been examined from myriad of angels in the literature on economics. In this connection, terms such as “defense economics”, “military economics”, “conflict economics”, and “security economics”, have been widely employed to refer to specific aspects of peace, but, more importantly, thus far, the conceptualizations as such have apparently failed to provide an exhaustive explication of how peace-oriented policies at international arenas can lead to peace economics. To add more details to it, peace economics encompasses the designation of political-economiccultural institutions, and their interrelations and policies are aimed at preventing, mitigating, or resolving any form of latent or actual destructive conflict within and between societies [4], p. 5–6). The importance of such conflicts in economics stems from the fact that they bring about a sort of uncertainty in economy and escalates the inability of economic agents and policy makers in making precise future forecasts. To mentioning some facts pertaining to the time period between the years 2020 and 2023 can be adantageous. In the advent of COVID-19, (...truncated)