TERRORISM IN AFRICA: AN ANALYSIS OF THE EFFICACY OF U.S. COUNTERTERRORISM

Global Tides Volume 18 Article 3 April 2024 TERRORISM IN AFRICA: AN ANALYSIS OF THE EFFICACY OF U.S. COUNTERTERRORISM Max Yong Pepperdine University, Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.pepperdine.edu/globaltides Part of the African Studies Commons, Defense and Security Studies Commons, Military and Veterans Studies Commons, Peace and Conflict Studies Commons, Policy Design, Analysis, and Evaluation Commons, Public Policy Commons, and the Terrorism Studies Commons Recommended Citation Yong, Max (2024) "TERRORISM IN AFRICA: AN ANALYSIS OF THE EFFICACY OF U.S. COUNTERTERRORISM," Global Tides: Vol. 18, Article 3. Available at: https://digitalcommons.pepperdine.edu/globaltides/vol18/iss1/3 This International Studies and Languages is brought to you for free and open access by the Seaver College at Pepperdine Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Global Tides by an authorized editor of Pepperdine Digital Commons. For more information, please contact . TERRORISM IN AFRICA: AN ANALYSIS OF THE EFFICACY OF U.S. COUNTERTERRORISM Cover Page Footnote A tremendous thank you to Sally Bryant for her research assistance and Dr. John Taden for his teaching on the subject material. This international studies and languages is available in Global Tides: https://digitalcommons.pepperdine.edu/ globaltides/vol18/iss1/3 Yong: Is U.S. Counterterrorism Working in Africa? Introduction In the twenty years following the September 11th, 2001 attacks, the United States sent military forces around the world as part of its Global War on Terror. Simultaneously, the African continent experienced unprecedented levels of violence from Islamic extremist groups. Between 2004 and 2014, Sub-Saharan Africa saw a rise from 500 deaths and 50 attacks to 13,000 casualties in 2,300 attacks1. While casualties have since subsided, terrorism has grown. In response, the US has offered record military aid to African nations to develop local security forces and counterterrorism efforts. In 2007, the US established a new combatant command with direct responsibility for the African continent, Africa Command (AFRICOM). Since then, this command has directed US resources to insert US troop advisors with partner forces, host joint-training exercises, build military installations, and provide other aid. Unfortunately, existing literature suggests these efforts have reaped little or, in some cases, failed to stem the spread of violent Islamic extremism. While the reasons for blunted US efforts are complex, there are significant limitations to US counterterrorism doctrine. AFRICOM’s mission on the continent has been challenging with poor local governance and weak security force partners. Even so, in two decades, the world’s most powerful military has made marginal gains in its war on terrorism on the African continent. This paper seeks to evaluate the US’ effect on terrorism on the African continent as existing literature continues to undervalue the pressure US military aid places on terror networks. Despite the US’ efforts in Africa seemingly not reaping sweeping victories against terrorism in Africa, it would be remiss to understate how terrorist groups have been forced to adapt to the growing pressure of well-trained local counterterrorism forces supported by US forces. This evaluation is important as the results will provide significant policy implications. If the hypothesis is retained, it can be implied US policy should seek to further support and potentially expand training missions on the African continent. If rejected, the methods in which the US has participated in counterterrorism or its presence on the African continent may require reevaluation. Either result is crucial for understanding the requirements of achieving peace in Africa. Literature Review Extant literature on US counterterrorism in Africa has offered mixed reviews. While some praise the success of humanitarian and military development efforts, others point to the marginal gains of the US, often nullified by failures. The variability of perspectives points to Great Power competition, complexities of local politics, and inherent flaws in US aid. As part of its global campaign to defeat terrorism at the source, support from the US has flowed into Africa at record numbers. It has arrived in the form of direct investment, humanitarian aid, diplomacy, and military aid and training. However, despite these investments, authors note the continued spread of terrorism. As studied by Nathaniel D.F. Allen, the lethality of violent extremist groups such as Boko Haram and al-Shabaab has only increased exponentially. Allen’s research revealed a fivefold increase in battle1 Allen, N. D. F. (2018). Assessing a Decade of U.S. Military Strategy in Africa. Orbis, 62(4), 655–669. https://doi-org.lib.pepperdine.edu/10.1016/j.orbis.2018.08.011 Published by Pepperdine Digital Commons, 2024 1 Global Tides, Vol. 18 [2024], Art. 3 related deaths and a twenty-fold increase in deaths caused by terror attacks since 2007. This rise has co-occurred with increased military assistance from the US, sometimes surpassing $1 billion. Compared to assistance prior to 2005, which never topped $300 million, such figures are a notable hike. However, at times these funds have been found to support governments accused of human rights violations. These records of violence remain comparably lower than the 1990s conflict-related deaths in Africa. Concern has risen around the correlation between recipients of US military aid and spikes in terror events 2 . In his dissertation, Eric Splavec presented a statistically significant relationship (p<0.01) between terror events and US military aid disbursements amongst members of the East African Community. Although developmental aid and foreign direct investment have had positive effects in negating terrorism, a positive relationship between military aid and recipient countries is less clear. However, research conducted by Jan Bachmann and Jana Hönke, points to increasingly interconnected security and development policies3. Many states, seeking development assistance, often receive US aid under condition of use for security-sector reform. In a further study of this unique emphasis on counterterrorism, when considering aid disbursement, Andrew Boutton and David B. Carter revealed that terrorist attacks on US interests garner aid to the local nation. In contrast, the presence of terrorism in the same nation, targeting nonUS interests, reaps little to no aid allocation4. With few exceptions, threats to US allies were not found to be associated with US foreign aid allocation. In the scope of Great Power competition, Raffaello Pantucci acknowledges the challenges the US faces in being replaced by its competitors as a predominant counterterrorism force in Africa5. Compared to Western nations, Russia has been willing to provide support without criticism of local methods of governance, including illiberal prac (...truncated)