Cloud-Computing Trend Analysis of Urbanization Impacts on Land Surface Temperature and Electricity Demand in Gaborone, Botswana

Remote Sensing in Earth Systems Sciences https://doi.org/10.1007/s41976-024-00171-7 RESEARCH Cloud‑Computing Trend Analysis of Urbanization Impacts on Land Surface Temperature and Electricity Demand in Gaborone, Botswana Boineelo Moyo1,2 · Dietrich Schröder2,3 · Kealeboga Moreri1,2 Received: 6 July 2023 / Revised: 24 November 2024 / Accepted: 28 November 2024 © The Author(s) 2024 Abstract Land use land cover (LULC) changes are critical drivers of global environmental changes, profoundly impacting sustainability in rapidly urbanizing regions. In urban areas, where vegetation cover is reduced, LULC changes significantly affect the distribution and intensity of Land Surface Temperature (LST), which in turn influences electricity demand and consumption. This study explores the relationship between urbanization, vegetation loss, surface temperature and electricity demand in Gaborone, Botswana. The study utilized the Landsat data to conduct a 15-year (2005–2020) spatio-temporal analysis of LULC changes and LST dynamics, identified surface urban heat islands (SUHI) using the Getis-Ord Gi* hot-spot analysis and assessed the correlation between LST and key spectral indices adopted in the study. The analysis employed Google Earth Engine (GEE) cloud computing platform and the Random Forest (RF) machine learning algorithm, known for their accuracy and efficiency in classification and change detection studies. Findings reveal substantial LULC transformations in Gaborone with approximately 12 km² of land converted to Built-Up areas, driving a 2.36% annual urban growth rate and shrinking green and bare spaces. Consequently, surface temperatures rose by about 2.1 °C, impacting energy demand, particularly for cooling during hot summers. This demand surge, coupled with urban expansion, has fueled higher electricity prices, posing new challenges in climate adaptation and mitigation. The study provides critical insights into the interplay between urbanization, rising temperatures, and energy consumption in Gaborone. These insights highlight the urgent need for developing sustainable urban planning and energy strategies to address the impacts of climate change, land degradation, and energy poverty. Keywords Land surface temperature · Land use land cover · Random forest · Google earth engine · Electricity demand · Climate change Dietrich Schröder and Kealeboga Moreri contributed equally to this work. * Dietrich Schröder Boineelo Moyo Kealeboga Moreri 1 Institute for living conditions in rural areas, Johann Heinrich von Thuenen-Institut, Bundesallee 50, 38116 Braunschweig, Germany, Lower Saxony 2 Department of Geomatics, Computer Science and Mathematics, Stuttgart University of Applied Sciences, Schellingstr. 24, 70174 Stuttgart, Germany, Baden‑Wuerttemberg 3 Department of Civil Engineering, University of Botswana, Notwane Rd, Botswana, Gaborone 1 Introduction Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) changes, particularly the transformation of vegetated areas into urban environments, have a profound influence on the physical properties of land surfaces. This transformation is primarily driven by human activities, such as urbanization, and has escalated in both intensity and extent over the last few decades [1]. Previous studies such as [2–4] have stated that increased urbanization and population growth change the physical properties of urban land surfaces into more impervious structures that contribute to variations in Land Surface Temperature (LST). These changes in LST, in turn, contribute to a series of socio-economic and environmental issues, including energy poverty, public health challenges, and intensified climate change effects, which further exacerbate global concerns related to food and water security [5, 6]. LULC change Vol.:(0123456789) Remote Sensing in Earth Systems Sciences plays a central role in the broader climate change narrative [7], which has been identified as one of the most pressing global challenges of our time [8]. International agreements, such as the Paris Agreement, have emphasized the urgent need for sustainable strategies to mitigate global warming and keep it below 1.5◦C [9]. Therefore, mapping and understanding LULC change is critical for developing strategies to address the negative impacts of urbanization on climate change, especially in rapidly growing urban areas [8, 10–12]. Urbanization not only changes land cover but also alters local climate dynamics [13], which has direct implications for energy consumption, especially in regions with extreme weather events [14, 15], . Understanding these interactions is crucial for assessing progress towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities) and 13 (Climate Action), which aim to improve urban environments and address climate change. The connection between climate change and energy use is particularly evident in urban areas, where rising surface temperatures due to urbanization directly impact electricity demand [5, 14, 15]. The intensive exploitation of land, energy, and water resources contributes to climate change, which, in turn, affects the resilience and functionality of systems that supply these critical resources [16]. For instance, the energy sector is affected by and contributes to climate change as it accounts for a significant proportion of Green House Gas (GHG) emissions [17–19]. Studies have shown that as temperatures rise, electricity demand for cooling, air conditioning, and refrigeration increases, further straining energy systems [6, 15]. Any threat to supply and affordability on the customer’s side is a critical socio-economic challenge that should be considered when formulating policies. Therefore, this feedback loop between climate change and energy consumption is a critical consideration for policymaking, especially in regions like Botswana, where urbanization is accelerating and temperatures are rising rapidly. Africa, in particular, has experienced significant environmental and socio-economic impacts due to rapid urbanization over the past two decades [20–22]. Engelbrecht et al. [23] conducted a study to assess Africa’s rapidly rising surface temperature from 1961 to 2010. Their findings revealed that Southern African countries, including Botswana, have seen notable increases in surface temperatures since the 1960s. Botswana, a semi-arid country, has already felt the effects of climate change, with increasingly frequent and severe heatwaves, prolonged droughts, and water scarcity [24–26]. For instance, the 2016 heatwave in Gaborone reached record temperatures of 44 °C, surpassing the previous record of 43.3 °C set in 2001 and resulting in numerous fatalities [27].Botswana experiences windstorms, irregular rainfall patterns, and droughts as examples of extreme weather phenomena [23, 28]. According to a recent study, Botswana is among the top few African nations in terms of national mean temperature and variations in precipitation (...truncated)