Consumption Trends, Trading Patterns and Economic Development in Italy Across Centuries: Data Analysis of Roman Amphorae in a Long-Term Perspective

Journal of Archaeological Method and Theory https://doi.org/10.1007/s10816-024-09686-1 (2025) 32:21 RESEARCH Consumption Trends, Trading Patterns and Economic Development in Italy Across Centuries: Data Analysis of Roman Amphorae in a Long‑Term Perspective Paulina Komar1 · Tom Brughmans2 · Ekaterina Borisova3 Accepted: 25 November 2024 © The Author(s) 2025 Abstract This paper presents novel insights into the long-term chronological patterns related to the distribution and consumption of amphora-borne foodstuffs in Italy. The study specifically focuses on the consumption of wine, olive oil and fish sauces, which exhibit diverse provenances. Notably, it contributes significantly to our understanding of the Roman economy by utilising an open dataset and a replicable research method. The analysis reveals a pronounced growth pattern during the late Republican to early Imperial period. Importantly, quantitative evidence demonstrates that the diverse consumption pattern observed in the capital city of Rome is less exceptional than previously believed. The study draws upon a substantial dataset comprising 28,851 diagnostic amphora fragments excavated and documented from 28 different urban and rural settlements in the North Adriatic and Central Italy, spanning the period from the 4th c. BCE to the 7th c. CE. The analytical approach employs a probabilistic aoristic method, evenly distributing amphora frequencies across relevant date ranges. Keywords Amphorae · Rome · Italy · Consumption patterns · Economy * Paulina Komar Tom Brughmans Ekaterina Borisova 1 Faculty of History, University of Warsaw, Warsaw, Poland 2 Classical Archaeology, and Centre for Urban Network Evolutions (UrbNet), Aarhus University, Moesgård Allé 20, 8270 Højbjerg, Denmark 3 Deutsches Forschungszentrum Für Künstliche Intelligenz GmbH (DFKI), Berlin, Germany Vol.:(0123456789) 21 Page 2 of 48 P. Komar et al. Introduction The functioning and performance of the ancient economy have long been one of the key debates in classical studies. After many years of strong reliance on written sources in this matter (Finley, 1973; Hopkins, 1978, 1980, 2002: 190–230), the last two decades have brought a significant turn towards archaeology and the critical quantification of material sources (Saller, 2005: 223–38; De Callataÿ, 2005: 361–372; Friesen & Scheidel, 2009: 61–91; Scheidel, 2009: 46–70; Lo Cascio, 2009: 87–106; Kron, 2014: 123–46; Jongman, 2006: 237–54; id. 2007a, 2007b; 2009; 2014: 169–88; 2017a: 260–8; 2017b). A number of attempts to understand and quantify movements of goods in antiquity, as well as assessing the volume of trade and nature of market relations, have substantially enhanced our understanding of the origins, transport and consumption of many goods (Bowman&Wilson, 2009a, 2009b; Wilson Bowman, 2018; Franconi et al., 2023), but there are still many challenges associated with the imperfections of archaeological data, especially regarding how they reflect ancient economic phenomena. In recent years, a ‘big data’ revolution has transformed archaeology, leading to the integration of multiple survey datasets and enabling the creation of a robust, systematic body of information. This advancement facilitates the connection of regional datasets to globally relevant themes, such as economic performance, connectivity and integration across time and space (e.g. De Haas, 2017; Verhagen et al., 2019; Attema et al., 2021; Franconi et al., 2023). Simultaneously, computer simulations (e.g. of pottery distribution; see Brughmans & Poblome, 2016; Brughmans & Pecci, 2020) help to partially address issues of representativeness in preserved and excavated archaeological materials. However, addressing broad, global questions often overlooks finer, local trends. Comparing local and regional trends remains essential to gaining insights into goods exchange at local, regional and inter-regional levels, as well as the underlying factors behind economic efficiency or decline (De Haas, et al., 2011; Tol, 2017). This study combines and presents data from various areas in Italy, enabling the observation of broader trading and consumption trends. The present study focuses on global trends and, by necessity, does not allow for a comprehensive analysis of minor, local patterns. However, some of these smaller shifts are identified, which opens new directions for future research. The Roman amphorae data analysis results presented in this paper make a significant contribution to our understanding of the economy of the Roman world, providing novel insights into trade in amphorae-borne products. We use a large dataset consisting of 28,851 diagnostic amphora fragments excavated and published from urban and rural sites in Central Italy, perform a quantitative data analysis and make the dataset and data analysis code openly available to allow for scrutiny and replication of our published results. Our analysis focuses on identifying longterm chronological patterns in the distribution and consumption of amphoraborne foodstuffs in Italy, with a particular focus on the consumption of wine, Consumption Trends, Trading Patterns and Economic Development… Page 3 of 48 21 olive oil and fish sauces with diverse provenances. We critically assess the effects of the imperfections and heterogeneity of our dataset by identifying how robust identified data patterns are in light of different dating evidence and site types and by complementing the identification of major trends in the combined dataset with more in-depth analyses of subsets relevant for the study of specific places such as Ostia, Rome and the Bay of Naples, of specific foodstuffs and provenances. Our results provide important case studies of changing Italian supply networks and economic connections across the Mediterranean over a 1000-year period (400 BCE–600 CE), reflecting phenomena including changing tastes and demands among Italian consumers of goods, changing production centres in Italy and the provinces and changing economic interdependencies in the Mediterranean. Materials and Methods Data Collection This study is based on published amphora data from 66 individual archaeological excavation sites representing 28 different settlements in central Tyrrhenian and North Adriatic Italy, dated between the 4th c. BCE and the 7th c. CE.1 These 66 sites were selected because they were argued to be closed contexts, relatively precisely dated and reliable quantified; amphora frequencies are published for them. In addition, they provided significant numbers of amphorae, meaning at least several dozens of potsherds, while sites with singular containers or their fragments were excluded due to their lack of representativity. Our data collection aimed to include as many sites as possible in the study area, representing both coastal and inland centres situated in the north and south as well as east and west of Italy. The chosen sites represent both urban, harbour and rural contexts (...truncated)