Livestock theft dynamics in the Free State: Analysing perceptions, trends and economic implications (2019-2024)

South African CRIME QUARTERLY No. 74 | 2025 Livestock theft dynamics in the Free State Analysing perceptions, trends and economic implications (2019–2024) Willie Clack1 https://doi.org/10.17159/sacq.n74.20909 This study investigates livestock theft in the Free State province of South Africa, a region characterised by high livestock ownership and substantial stock theft rates. A quantitative approach was adopted, utilising structured surveys to analyse trends, perceptions, and the economic implications of this phenomenon. Through these structured surveys with farmers, the research investigates community perceptions and other factors that influence the non-reporting of crimes. Additionally, it analyses theft trends from 2019 to 2024, using statistics from the South African Police Service (SAPS). Findings reveal widespread distrust in the SAPS, with 82% of respondents not reporting livestock theft as they believe the police would do nothing about it. Although livestock theft cases, in particular those involving cattle, sheep, and goat theft, have reportedly decreased, significant fluctuations persist, with cattle theft having the most substantial economic implications. Seasonal trends indicate an increase in theft during peak agricultural periods and religious festivals, with economic losses averaging R175 223 940 over the five years, emphasising the urgent need for effective prevention strategies. The study identifies critical gaps in existing literature and recommends future research in longitudinal studies, qualitative methods and technological solutions to address livestock theft. SA CRIME QUARTERLY NO. 74 • 2025 2 – 55 Introduction In the Free State province of South Africa, livestock theft has a profound impact on rural livelihoods.2 As a quintessential farm crime, it must be understood within its local context to effectively address the challenges faced by local rural communities.3 Localised strategies tailored to the specific needs of these communities can significantly improve crime prevention efforts. A national perspective might overlook these subtleties, making it harder to tackle local crime effectively.4 Therefore, prioritising localised research and solutions offers a more accurate picture of crime and its impact on community well-being.5 The complexities of livestock theft are further compounded by factors such as the increasing distrust between farmers and the SAPS, as reflected in the growing trend of nonreporting.6 Understanding the local context, including community perceptions, reasons for non-reporting and the seasonal nature of theft, is essential for developing effective crime prevention strategies. This study aims to address these issues by investigating livestock theft in the Free State from 2018 to 2024, examining which livestock were targeted and the role of the SAPS, and identifying factors that influence the occurrence of theft in different areas. By gaining deeper insights into the issue, this research aims to contribute to the development of more effective, community-driven solutions to combat livestock theft in the province. This article is structured into six key sections. It begins with an overview of the local context of livestock theft in the Free State, emphasising its socio-economic significance and the challenges rural communities face. This is followed by a discussion of the research methodology, which employs a quantitative approach, and the key factors influencing theft in rural areas, including 2– 56 INSTITUTE FOR SECURITY STUDIES community perceptions, the role of the SAPS, and trends in non-reporting of livestock theft. The third section examines the seasonal patterns of livestock theft and the types of livestock that are most commonly targeted. The penultimate section assesses the economic implications of livestock theft on the farming community in the Free State. Finally, the paper addresses limitations, identifies research gaps in the existing literature, and outlines directions for future studies to address these gaps and enhance crime prevention efforts in the Free State. Literature review The literature on livestock theft in South Africa, particularly in the Free State, is more extensive than commonly perceived in academic circles.7 Although Free State Agriculture (FSA) has made significant contributions to this field, much of its work remains unpublished.8 Another challenge stems from South Africa’s linguistic diversity, since much of the livestock theft analysis and prevention information is primarily available only in Afrikaans (see notes in Afrikaans). Due to these linguistic barriers, access to this work by a broader audience, particularly within communal and smallholder farming communities, is limited.9 As the Victims of Crime Survey (VOCS) 2017/2018 indicated, the increase in livestock theft has led to the non-reporting of these cases becoming more common. An analysis of the VOCS revealed that non-reporting was a growing trend, increasing from a rate of 36.3% in 2011 to 77% in 2017/2018.10 However, since 2018, the VOCS has excluded livestock theft from the survey. The VOCS 2017/2018 is therefore the last available information from official government statistics, and no reasons have been provided for the omission of livestock theft in any correspondence or publication. The decline in reported cases until 2018 is attributed to the growing trend of non-reporting.11 However, a 2022 study, employing a quantitative approach with non-probability convenience sampling, involving 920 South African farmers and investigating farm crime and police-farmer relations, revealed that 38% of farmers consistently report crimes, 26% report them often, 28% report them occasionally, and only 8% never report any crimes.12 In essence, this means that farmers do report livestock theft and crimes, and the dark figure of crime statistics is not as significant as is generally perceived by analysts and academics who rely solely on VOCS data from 2017/2018. The primary reason cited by respondents for nonreporting, at 85%, was the belief that ‘the police will do nothing about it’, reflecting a profound lack of trust in the SAPS.13 in time and space. Applied to livestock theft, RAT suggests that theft is more likely to occur in areas where valuable livestock (suitable targets) are accessible, motivated offenders are present, and security measures such as fencing, surveillance, or law enforcement (capable guardians) are weak or absent. Understanding livestock theft against this framework enables the identification of risk factors and the development of targeted crime prevention strategies.19 Clack conducted a study on criminological theories, using case studies, and found that the principles of RAT have an impact on conceptions of how perpetrators commit the crime of livestock theft.20 Dooreward and Lombard confirmed these findings in their respective studies.21 Lombard examines the relationship between various factors, including rep (...truncated)