Global warming intensifies extreme day-to-day temperature changes in mid–low latitudes

nature climate change Article https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02486-9 Global warming intensifies extreme day-to-day temperature changes in mid–low latitudes Received: 23 October 2024 Qi Liu , Congbin Fu 1,2,3 1,2,3 , Zhongfeng Xu 4 & Aijun Ding 1,2,3 Accepted: 15 October 2025 Published online: xx xx xxxx Check for updates Global warming is increasing the number and intensity of many extreme weather and climate events. Here we argue that extreme day-to-day temperature changes, exceeding the 90th percentile threshold of historical records, are an independent, but largely ignored, aspect of extreme weather events. Such extreme temperature changes have a stronger impact on human health in many locations than do diurnal temperature variations. Global observations show that such events have become more frequent since the 1960s in low and mid-latitudes but decreased at high latitudes, primarily due to GHG forcing. Climate models project a further amplification of extreme day-to-day temperature changes under warming, with frequency, amplitude and total intensity rising by ~17%, ~3% and ~20%, respectively, by 2100 in regions covering 80% of global population. Increased extreme day-to-day temperature changes are associated with drier soil and increased variability in pressure and soil moisture, posing substantial risks to societal and ecosystem resilience and adaptation. There is growing evidence that global warming is leading to an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events1–6, based on the 27 extreme event indices recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI), jointly established by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). However, most ETCCDI indices are defined using percentiles that describe temperature or precipitation extremes on individual days but do not directly capture rapid temperature changes between consecutive days. The day-to-day temperature change (DTDT), defined as the absolute value of DTDT difference, is a fundamental aspect of climate change and is already changing under global warming7–12. Thus, extreme DTDT events, defined as DTDTs exceeding a threshold of historical records, could be considered as candidates for these distinct extremes. This is of considerable concern given the high vulnerability of human activities11,13,14, ecosystems15 and even economic growth rates16 to DTDT. For example, DTDT can cause high public mortality and lead to various diseases by impairing the human immune system11,13,17–23. However, the statistical characterization and long-term evolution of such DTDT under global warming remain poorly documented, constituting a key knowledge gap. We define extreme DTDT events and select the 90th percentile threshold on the basis of the absolute values for defining this index. First, we define extreme DTDT events of the near-surface maximum temperature as those events where the absolute temperature difference between two consecutive days exceeds the 90th percentile threshold (Extended Data Fig. 1 and Methods). The rest are defined as non-extreme events. We examine the amplitude, frequency and total intensity of these extremes following the studies of extreme heatwave events5,24. This approach provides a simple and direct way to characterize extremes on a day-to-day scale. The selection of the 90th percentile threshold is based on the severe health and ecological impacts associated with DTDT events exceeding 4–6 °C (refs. 19,25), School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, People’s Republic of China. 2Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change, Nanjing University, Nanjing, People’s Republic of China. 3Institute for Climate and Global Change Research, Nanjing University, Nanjing, People’s Republic of China. 4State Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modelling and Application, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, People’s Republic of China. e-mail: 1 Nature Climate Change Article as well as the long-term changes in the distribution of DTDT. Thus, the 90th percentile threshold serves as an appropriate criterion for identifying extreme DTDT events. Notably, both eastern China and western USA experienced record-breaking spring extreme DTDT events on 16 March 2022 and 20 May 2022, respectively (Supplementary Fig. 1), suggesting a possible increase in such extremes under climate change. Several studies using climate models have examined changes in daily temperature variability under global warming and demonstrated that these variations are primarily driven by GHG forcing26,27. However, it remains unclear whether extreme DTDT swings, that is, the extreme temperature difference between consecutive days, have already increased, and what the global distribution has been over the past decades under global warming. More importantly, the mechanisms driving the observed changes in these extremes remain unknown. Here we present a comprehensive understanding of the observed changes in extreme DTDT over the past decades, covering facts, anthropogenic contributions, future projections and potential mechanisms. On the basis of observations28, reanalysis datasets29,30 and Earth System Model (ESM) simulation results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) from 1961 to 2100, we show that the amplitude, frequency and total intensity of these events will increase in most regions at low and mid-latitudes, and the amplification in these extremes is primarily driven by the drier soil and enhanced variability in pressure and soil moisture due to anthropogenic GHG forcing. Finally, we show that the return period of the record-breaking DTDT events has decreased by a factor of tens to hundreds in the western USA and eastern China. Extreme daily swing and ETCCDI indices To demonstrate the significance and necessity of analysing extreme DTDT, we show that these extremes of daily maximum temperature are largely independent of 15 ETCCDI temperature-related indices across nearly all global land areas. Extended Data Fig. 2 and Supplementary Fig. 2 present the spatial distribution of the correlation coefficients between the amplitude and frequency of these extremes and the 15 ETCCDI extreme temperature indices. For these 15 ETCCDI indices, only 1–8% and 2–10% of land grid points show highly significant correlations (P < 0.01) with the amplitude and frequency of extreme DTDT events, respectively, indicating that 90–99% of grid points exhibit no highly significant association with the occurrence of these extremes. Specifically, for warm days and cool days, only 4–8% of land grid points show highly significant correlations. Our focus on these events is further motivated by their distinct health implications11,13,19,22, which differ from those of sustained heat or cold. Moreover, our analyses reveal that the extreme DTDT is strongly associated with increased m (...truncated)