Peak glacier extinction in the mid-twenty-first century

nature climate change Brief Communication https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02513-9 Peak glacier extinction in the mid-twenty-first century Received: 20 June 2025 Accepted: 6 November 2025 Lander Van Tricht 1,2,3 , Harry Zekollari 3, Matthias Huss 1,2,4, David R. Rounce 5, Lilian Schuster 6, Rodrigo Aguayo 3, Patrick Schmitt Fabien Maussion 7, Brandon Tober 5 & Daniel Farinotti 1,2 , 6 Published online: xx xx xxxx Check for updates Projections of glacier change typically focus on mass and area loss, yet the disappearance of individual glaciers directly threatens culturally, spiritually and touristically significant landscapes. Here, using three global glacier models, we project a sharp rise in the number of glaciers disappearing worldwide, peaking between 2041 and 2055 with up to ~4,000 glaciers vanishing annually. Regional variability reflects differences in average glacier size, local climate, the magnitude of warming and inventory completeness. Glaciers worldwide are retreating rapidly1,2, with losses projected to continue throughout the twenty-first century3,4 and beyond5. Observations and projections assessed by the IPCC6 have primarily focused on changes in glacier mass and area, particularly in relation to sea-level rise7 and water availability8. In contrast, the evolution of the total number of glaciers has received comparatively little attention3, partly because glacier number is a less clearly defined metric and is influenced by observational limitations9. Yet knowing where and when individual glaciers will disappear is important from touristic, cultural and spiritual perspectives. Glaciers attract millions of visitors each year, offering opportunities for recreation, education and outreach10–12. Many ski resorts also depend on glaciers, meaning their disappearance could affect winter tourism economies13,14. Beyond recreation, glaciers hold deep cultural, historical and symbolic importance. In many regions, they are iconic features tied to local traditions, spiritual practices and communal identity15–18. Across cultures, glaciers have also inspired stories, rituals and legends19,20. At the same time, even small glaciers can provide essential meltwater for communities and livelihoods, adding another dimension to their societal importance. As glaciers shrink, communities are confronted with these changes, sometimes marking their loss with symbolic rituals, such as the ‘glacier funerals’ for Okjökull glacier (Iceland, 2019)21, Pizol glacier (Switzerland, 2019) (ref. 22) and Yala glacier (Nepal, 2025) (ref. 23). These ceremonies highlight the emotional and societal dimensions of glacier loss20,23–25. Iceland has even established a global glacier graveyard26, while initiatives such as the Global Glacier Casualty List aim to preserve the names and histories of vanishing glaciers21. Here we offer a distinct perspective on glacier loss by quantifying the disappearance of each of the world’s more than 200,000 glaciers included in the global Randolph Glacier Inventory version 6.0 (RGI v.6.0)27, under four policy-relevant global warming scenarios by 2100 (relative to pre-industrial levels): +1.5 °C and +2.0 °C (Paris Agreement targets), +2.7 °C (current policy pledges) and +4.0 °C (a higher-emission pathway). Using three global glacier models, we introduce the concept of peak glacier extinction—the year in which the largest number of glaciers is projected to disappear between now (2025) and the end of the century. In this study, a glacier is classified as disappeared, or extinct, when either its projected area falls below 0.01 km2 (the standard inventory threshold9) or its remaining volume declines to less than 1% of its initial value. While this number-based framing provides an intuitive and complementary perspective to traditional mass loss metrics, it must be interpreted with care. Glacier number is sensitive to the inventories, which vary in resolution, completeness and treatment of small or fragmented ice bodies. Our results show that glacier extinction (the number of individual glaciers disappearing) will peak around mid-century, with both its timing and magnitude depending on the warming level. Under +1.5 °C, global peak glacier extinction is projected to reach ~2,000 glaciers per year around 2041 (Fig. 1). Under +4.0 °C, this peak shifts to the 1 Laboratory of Hydraulics, Hydrology and Glaciology (VAW), ETH Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland. 2Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL), Sion, Switzerland. 3Department of Water and Climate, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium. 4Department of Geosciences, University of Fribourg, Fribourg, Switzerland. 5Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, USA. 6 Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences (ACINN), Universität Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria. 7Bristol Glaciology Centre, School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK. e-mail: Nature Climate Change Brief Communication https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02513-9 Greenland Periphery Global n = 211,490 80 4,000 3,000 60 2,000 40 1,000 20 0 2040 800 n = 27,022 Alaska 600 400 0 Scandinavia n = 3,384 100 50 60 400 n = 27,926 60 40 200 20 0 0 0 40 0 Central Asia 100 60 20 n = 54,207 1,000 40 500 20 20 0 0 0 0 Southern Andes 400 n = 15,274 New Zealand 100 200 n = 3,304 100 300 80 80 60 200 40 100 0 20 2040 2060 Year 2080 0 2100 150 60 100 40 50 0 20 2040 2060 2080 0 2100 Year 0 15 n = 568 100 100 20 100 80 60 40 50 20 0 0 200 100 100 80 60 40 20 0 Svalbard n = 1,614 100 80 60 40 10 20 0 0 Caucasus 60 n = 1,824 60 0 Antarctic and Sub-Antarctic 40 n = 2,424 100 80 30 20 10 60 40 20 20 0 0 Low Latitudes 100 n = 2,759 2040 2060 2080 100 80 60 50 40 20 0 0 Temperature scenario +1.5 °C Uncertainty range 60 +2.0 °C 40 +2.7 °C 20 +4.0 °C Moving mean 0 2100 100 80 40 20 0 0 0 80 40 100 20 0 60 0 100 40 50 30 20 0 60 150 n = 7,406 80 40 5 80 100 Iceland 10 100 Arctic Canada South 0 South Asia East 100 400 n = 12,894 80 300 60 0 20 40 100 60 20 40 80 Arctic Canada North n = 4,526 40 20 60 5 100 60 80 40 80 500 n = 1,069 15 Central Europe 100 200 n = 3,198 80 150 0 South Asia West Russian Arctic North Asia 100 300 n = 5,073 80 200 60 20 0 1,000 600 0 0 10 Western Canada and USA n = 17,723 80 80 40 100 20 100 60 0 80 20 n = 19,296 200 0 2100 2080 Year 40 200 150 2060 100 300 100 Cumulative disappearance (%) Annual no. of disappearing glaciers 5,000 Median 25–75% Year Fig. 1 | Projected annual glacier disappearance at global and regional scales under different warming scenarios. The points show the projected number of glaciers lost each year (values on the left y axis), according to the median yearscenario across all glacier and climate model combinations (Methods). The s (...truncated)