Ecological boundaries must be incorporated in the post-COP30 climate regime

communications earth & environment Comment A Nature Portfolio journal https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03337-x Ecological boundaries must be incorporated in the post-COP30 climate regime 1234567890():,; 1234567890():,; Qinglong Shao The 2025 United Nations Climate Change Conference COP30, was held in Belém, Brazil at the mouth of the Amazon River. The location brought global attention to the ecological systems that underlie climate stability: as one of the world’s most important biophysical regulators, the Amazon basin exemplifies how forests, hydrological cycles, biodiversity, and Indigenous stewardship collectively shape regional and global climate dynamics. Scientific briefings at the conference emphasized the accelerating pressures on these systems, from deforestation and ecosystem conversion to freshwater decline and coastal degradation, as well as their implications for climate outcomes, consistent with growing recognition across climate policy processes. At COP30, Parties and observers emphasized forest protection, ecosystem restoration, and nature-based solutions as integral to climate mitigation and adaptation discussions1,2. A central theme of these discussions was the framing of climate change and biodiversity loss—as a core dimension of ecosystem degradation—as mutually reinforcing crises, and the recognition that climate and biodiversity policy frameworks have long evolved in parallel but largely in isolation. Within these discussions, leading scientists highlighted that climate change and biodiversity loss arise from deeper disruptions in human–Earth-system relationships, and cautioned that ongoing ecosystem degradation can further undermine the feasibility of both mitigation and adaptation, making biodiversity considerations central rather than peripheral to climate policy (Nathalie Seddon, University of Oxford)2. This emphasis was reinforced by initiatives advanced by the Brazilian presidency, such as the Tropical Forests Forever Facility, aimed at mobilizing long-term finance for tropical forest conservation within broader climate action efforts3. Together, these discussions reflect a growing recognition within climate governance that pressures on ecosystems are closely linked to climate outcomes. This policy recognition aligns with Earth-system assessments showing that land-use change, deforestation, and ecosystem degradation can amplify climate change through carbon-cycle and hydrological feedbacks4. Nevertheless, despite the insight that ecosystem degradation directly and indirectly affects the climate, the formal United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) negotiations were predominantly centered on emissions pathways, fossil-fuel transition, and Communications Earth & Environment | (2026)7:263 Check for updates climate finance architecture5. These priorities directly reflect the structure of the Paris Agreement, which was designed around mitigation and adaptation. But they also reveal an emerging challenge. Global climate governance has yet to fully establish and integrate ecological boundaries to the resilience and functioning of the climate system6,7, there are limits to the disturbances that biophysical ecosystem processes can endure—and still stabilise the Earth’s climate. Here we argue that climate governance requires the explicit inclusion of nature-based boundaries—alongside, rather than in place of, emissions metrics—to improve the coherence, predictability, and resilience of the climate regime. As countries prepare for the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC 3.0) and the second Global Stocktake, now is the time to incorporate ecological indicators in these frameworks. Ecological trends and climate risk. Ecological destabilization can erode the benefits of emissions-focused climate strategies. Specifically, ecosystems regulate water and carbon cycles that directly affect the climate. For example, declining resilience in tropical forests reduces moisture recycling and carbon-sink stability8; ongoing biodiversity loss undermines the functional redundancy in ecosystems that is needed to buffer climatic extremes9; and degradation of blue-carbon systems—such as mangroves— releases long-stored carbon while also weakening natural coastal defenses that buffer shorelines against sea-level rise and storm surges, thereby amplifying a key climate impact10. In addition, mitigation strategies—such as large-scale bioenergy production and afforestation—can affect ecosystems by putting pressure onto freshwater, nutrient cycles, and habitats11. Together, these dynamics suggest that mitigation efforts yield smaller and less reliable climate benefits when ecological boundaries are under stress. Forest and land-system change. Tropical forest ecosystems such as the Amazon constitute a critical ecological boundary for climate stability, where forest cover, hydrological processes, and atmospheric circulation are tightly coupled (see Fig. 1)12. For the Amazon basins, recent studies highlighted growing tipping-point risks associated with continued declines in forest cover and the weakening of land–atmosphere and hydrological feedbacks that regulate regional rainfall13,14. Noteworthy, a side event at COP30 entitled “Global Tipping Points reports: solutions for the Amazon” illustrated that the interactions between deforestation, climate warming, and fire are pushing large parts of the Amazon closer to critical ecological thresholds. Speakers underscored that crossing such thresholds could trigger irreversible changes in moisture recycling, drought frequency, and regional climate stability, reinforcing concerns that ecosystem degradation in the Amazon is a key driver of systemic climate risk15. Biodiversity decline and ecosystem resilience. Biodiversity underpins functional redundancy, nutrient cycling, and ecosystem stability. Losses in pollinator diversity, soil organisms, and keystone species can 1 communications earth & environment Fig. 1 | Coastal forest ecosystems as an ecological boundary for climate resilience. Coastal forested wetlands exemplify ecological boundaries where land, water, and biological processes interact to regulate carbon storage and protection against climate extremes. Degradation of such boundary systems can undermine ecosystem stability and amplify climate-related risks. Photo by Jiankun He. reduce adaptive capacity, increasing the vulnerability of ecosystems to heatwaves, droughts, and disease outbreaks16. These ecological degradations also diminish the ability of natural systems to buffer extreme climatic events. Blue-carbon systems and coastal protection. Mangroves, seagrasses, and tidal wetlands are among the planet’s most efficient long-term carbon stores. They also reduce flooding and prevent shoreline erosion; when degraded, these protective functions are lost, increasing vulnerability to sea-level rise17. In addition, pressures from aquaculture, land reclamation, and coastal development cont (...truncated)