Intergenerational educational mobility in Nuevo León: assortative mating analysis

Intergenerational educational mobility in Nuevo León: assortative mating analysis Juan Francisco Suárez-Martínez and R. Berenice Sánchez Hernándeza a Universidad de Monterrey, Mexico. Email addresses: and , respectively. Date received: February 17, 2025. Date of acceptance: July 15, 2025. Abstract This study uses an ordered logit model to examine how the educational assortative mating of parents influences the academic achievement of their children in the state of Nuevo León, Mexico. The results show that, compared to parents with only a primary education or no education, children whose mother has a higher level of education than their father are between 12 and 15 percentage points more likely to attain a professional degree. When the father has a higher level of education, the probability increases by between 5.6 and 10.5 percentage points compared to the same group. These findings highlight the need for policies that focus on households with low educational capital in order to equalize opportunities and promote social mobility. Keywords: assortative mating; educational mobility; social mobility; human capital; intergenerational transmission. 1. INTRODUCTION Social mobility implies changes in people's socioeconomic status related to education, employment or income (Grajales and Monroy-Gómez-Franco, 2018). Mobility in terms of education is a good predictor of individual wellbeing and income in modern societies (Assaad et al., 2019; Cabrera, 2016; Psacharopoulos and Patrinos, 2018). For instance, in Latin America, mobility is higher in countries with more investment in education (Behrman et al., 2001). Children from households where the parents have low education levels face more obstacles to continuing their studies (Assaad et al., 2019; Székely, 2015), while parents with higher education levels reduce dropout rates and promote university enrollment (Alcaraz, 2020; Cabrera, 2016). The transmission of educational capital may vary by gender, with it mostly being men who impact their children's educational attainment, although there is no consensus in this respect (Corti and Scherer, 2022; Erát, 2021; Skopek and Leopold, 2020). Specialized literature generally analyzes this transmission by considering the education of the parent with the higher level of education (Erikson, 1984). The correlation of parents’ education is analyzed from the perspective of assortative mating, differentiating between homogamy (similar education) and heterogamy (different education), including hypergamy and hypogamy, depending on who has the higher level of education, with hypergamy being when the father has the higher level of education and hypogamy when the mother has the higher level of education (Esteve and McCaa, 2007; Huo and Chen, 2022). This approach delves deeper into the impact of the combination of the educational backgrounds of both parents on their children’s social mobility (Alcaraz, 2020; Mare, 1996; Schneebaum et al., 2015; Torche, 2010). Assortative mating addresses various questions about intergenerational or intragenerational mobility and, from an economic point of view, partner selection is not random and responds to factors such as educational level, ethnicity, religion, occupation and social class, which directly influence the human capital available in the home (Huo and Chen, 2022; Edwards and Roff, 2016). Intergenerational educational mobility explains the reproduction of inequality and how structural disadvantages limit human capital development, restrict opportunities and reinforce poverty cycles (De Hoyos et al., 2010). In recent decades, educational mobility in Mexico has been limited and short-lived for lower socioeconomic strata (CEEY, 2019). Progress has been made in primary and secondary education; however, gaps persist at the high school and higher education levels. Only 5% of young people whose parents who have no education go on to attend university, compared to 64% of those whose parents attended university (Fernández and Martínez, 2024). Mexico’s education spending as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) is below international recommendations, despite its importance in reducing inequalities and promoting early development (Llanos and Beltrán, 2023). Education policies do not prioritize early childhood (Blanco, 2024), ignoring its benefits in relation to academic performance, productivity, development of skills and reduction of inequalities (BID, 2019; Heckman, 2008). Furthermore, spending on early childhood has accounted for only 0.03% of GDP since 2018 (Llanos and Beltrán, 2023). Thus, educational mobility in Mexico is limited and unequal given the evidence of unequal educational opportunities and the fact that economic inequalities continue to affect access to and continuity of education. Young people and children will comprise tomorrow's workforce so policies that focus on the most vulnerable are essential to achieving equal opportunities (Blanco, 2021 and 2024), avoiding a return to the poverty trap and mitigating the intergenerational persistence of inequality. In Latin America, intergenerational educational mobility increased in lower socioeconomic strata, although it has remained stagnant among higher socioeconomic groups (Azevedo and Bouillon, 2011). In Mexico, research on educational assortative mating and mobility among children is limited. In contrast to the region, there is evidence of educational mobility in homogamy (Muñoz, 2024) and a decrease in hypergamy (Esteve and McCaa, 2007). In this context, the state of Nuevo León is of particular interest. Despite its high level of schooling, educational gaps based on household socioeconomic level persist (Solís, 2022) and are exacerbated by adverse experiences such as child labor or teenage pregnancy. Research has shown that intergenerational educational mobility in the state continues to depend on social origin (Solís, 2022). Additionally, the Monterrey metropolitan area has historically attracted migration and educational expansion, however, it also exhibits high territorial inequalities and persistent gaps in access to higher education (Solís et al., 2007). This situation of high educational attainment and internal structural barriers makes Nuevo León an interesting region in which to analyze how the educational mating of parents influences the educational opportunities of their children. This study analyzes the educational attainment of children based on assortative mating, using data from the 2021 Social Mobility Survey in Nuevo León (CEEY, 2022). The empirical analysis shows the effects of combining the education of both parents, rather than analyzing their isolated contribution using predictive models. The main interest lies in observing whether homogamy in basic education remains predominant in the state and to what extent these family structures limit educational mobility. The study also examines whether hypogamy and hypergamy are associated with an increased probability of (...truncated)