High-level Operation and the Reconfiguration of Energy Policy: Geopolitical Pressure and Oil Market Stability (Case Study in Venezuela)

INKUBIS: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Volume 8, Issue 1, 341-356 e_ISSN: 2775-3913 https://inkubis.polteksci.ac.id/index.php/ink/index DOI: doi.org/10.59261/inkubis.v8i1.235 High-level Operation and the Reconfiguration of Energy Policy: Geopolitical Pressure and Oil Market Stability (Case Study in Venezuela) Joseph Robert Giri1* Suspada Siswa Putra2 Politeknik Angkatan Darat Malang, Indonesia Universitas Pertahanan, Indonesia *Corresponding author: Joseph Robert Giri, Politeknik Angkatan Darat Malang, Indonesia. 🖂 Article Info: Article history: Received: April 13, 2026 Revised: April 28, 2026 Accepted: April 30, 2026 Abstract Background: Geopolitical pressures on oil-producing states can reconfigure domestic political dynamics, alter the direction of energy policy, and generate spillover effects in the global oil market. Venezuela, possessing approximately 17% of global proven oil reserves, represents a critical case of a resource-rich state with high structural vulnerability to external coercive pressures. Objective: This study addresses the limitations of previous studies that tend to discuss geopolitical interventions, global power distribution, Keywords: international law, and energy market dynamics separately. deterrence; energy geopolitics; Methods: This study employs an explanatory qualitative approach with geopolitical intervention; global oil a single-case study design and a structured causal analysis framework. market; venezuela. Research data were obtained from in-depth interviews with key informants, reports of international institutions, academic literature, as well as media interviews with experts, treated as supporting data. Results: The results of the study show that Venezuela is a relevant case to explain how the combination of high dependence on oil, limited deterrence capability, and external geopolitical pressures can affect the orientation of energy policy as well as increase market sensitivity to global energy supply risks. The findings of the study also indicate that although political changes in energy-producing countries do not automatically cause major global economic shocks in the short term, they can affect market expectations and energy investment prospects. Conclusion: The main contribution of this article is to offer an analytical framework that links geopolitical pressures, the vulnerability of oilproducing countries, changes in energy policy, and the dynamics of global oil markets in one integrated causal explanation. To cite this article: Giri, J. R., & Putra, S. S. (2026). High-level Operation and the Reconfiguration of Energy Policy: Geopolitical Pressure and Oil Market Stability (Case Study in Venezuela). INKUBIS: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis, 8(1), 341-356. https://doi.org/10.59261/inkubis.v8i1.235 INTRODUCTION In the international system, geopolitical operations against a country not only affect political stability and security but can also affect global economic stability (Odak et al., 2025; Shu et al., 2025). This is especially true when the country possesses strategic oil resources. Energy is an important factor in relations between countries because it affects the economic capacity, political power, and strategic position of a country in the international system (Harbert & Yergin, 1991). Therefore, political dynamics in energy-producing countries often have an impact beyond national borders and can even affect the stability of the global energy market. Venezuela is one of the countries with the largest oil reserves in the world and holds a strategic position in the global energy system. Disruption to political stability in energy-producing countries such as Venezuela has the potential to affect the production, distribution, and volatility 341 | INKUBIS: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Joseph Robert Giri, Suspada Siswa Putra High-level... of world oil prices (Kilian, 2009; Ryan & Michieka, 2025). In the context of energy geopolitics, changes in the political regime in an oil-producing country can also affect the orientation of national energy policies and the country's international economic relations (Ross, 2012). To avoid conceptual ambiguity, this article uses the term high-level operation in a specific analytical sense. In this study, high-level operation is used as an analytical expression referring to coercive geopolitical action directed at the political leadership, strategic decision-making structure, or core policy orientation of a target state. The term high-level operation is understood as a tool for analyzing geopolitical pressures operating at the power level of oil-producing countries that affect energy governance, market access, and economic stability. The term high-level operation, as used in this study, is an author-constructed analytical concept developed to describe a specific category of coercive geopolitical action directed at the political leadership, strategic decision-making structure, or core policy orientation of a target state. This concept draws upon and synthesizes three established scholarly traditions: Schelling (2008) coercive diplomacy and compellence theory, which analyzes how powerful states use threats and force to alter adversary behavior without full-scale war; J. J. J. Mearsheimer (2001) offensive realism, which explains great power competition and the willingness of hegemonic states to undermine weaker states' political autonomy when strategic interests are at stake; and Gray's (2003) deterrence theory, which frames state vulnerability as a function of perceived and actual capacity to resist external pressure. The concept of high-level operation in this study specifically refers to coercive geopolitical actions including military operations, targeted captures of political leadership, economic sanctions, and diplomatic pressure operating at the apex of state authority in the target country, rather than at population or infrastructure levels. This is distinct from counter-insurgency operations or conventional warfare. The term is employed analytically to distinguish actions that directly threaten political leadership continuity from broader forms of intervention, and is grounded in the specific empirical context of the Operation Absolute Resolve (AP News, 2026) directed against Venezuela's political leadership in January 2026. Interference with state sovereignty violates the principles of international law. This is stipulated in the United Nations Charter, which prohibits the use of military force against the territorial integrity and sovereignty of another state (Shaw, 2017). However, reality shows that a state with greater military power can dominate a state with less military power (Schelling, 2008). Deterrence capacity is one step in facing high-level operations (Schelling, 2008). A country with low deterrence capacity is easily targeted by high-level operations, which can influence how the country governs. This means that high-level operations involve not only a contest of military s (...truncated)