Wind resource assessment and wind power potential for the city of Ardabil, Iran

Farivar Fazelpour 0 1 Nima Soltani 0 1 Marc A. Rosen 0 1 0 M. A. Rosen Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, University of Ontario Institute of Technology , Oshawa, ON, Canada 1 F. Fazelpour N. Soltani (&) Department of Energy Systems Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Islamic Azad University-South Tehran Branch , Tehran, Iran The results of an investigation of the potential of wind energy as a power source are reported for an Iranian north-western city, Ardabil. The Weibull probability distribution function using a long-term data source, consisting of 6 years (2005-2010) of 3-h period measured mean wind data, is adopted and analyzed. The data have been measured at a height of 10 m above the ground level. Also, monthly and annual wind speed variations are analyzed. The monthly mean wind speed is between 2.09 and 6.58 m/s, while the annual mean wind speed is in the range of 3.28-4.08 m/s. The Ardabil site is found to have good characteristics from the perspective of mean wind speed. The numerical values of the shape and scale parameters for Ardabil are seen to vary over a wide range. The monthly mean value of shape parameter (k) is between 2.62 and 3.17, while the monthly mean value of the Weibull scale parameter (c) is between 3.36 and 5.43 m/s. The results show that the months of October and September have higher mean power densities and that July has a lower mean power density than other months. Also, the wind potential of the studied region is determined to be very suitable for the off-grid connections and could be acceptable for connecting to power grids. Introduction In recent years the worlds population growth and other factors have led to daily increasing energy consumption. Also, constraints regarding fossil fuels, the main energy source around the world, such as environmental impacts as climate change and droughts, and rising fossil fuel prices, have caused researchers to consider alternative energy sources. Renewable energy is often viewed as a good option because it is widely available and environmentally friendly. Experience using renewable energy sources, especially wind since 1970, and energy crises has contributed further to growing interest [1]. Wind energy is becoming quite popular compared to other renewable energy sources such as solar, biomass, tidal and wave [2]. Approximately, 10 million MW of wind energy is continuously available on the Earth [3]. The European Wind Energy Union classifies wind energy as follows [4]: Nearly good (V = 6.5 m/s) Good (V = 7.5 m/s) Very good (V = 8.5 m/s) where V denotes the mean wind speed at a given height. In Fig. 1 (Data source [5]), the global annual installed wind capacity from 1996 to the end of 2012 is shown. The capacity increased for 19962012 and increased more than four times from 2006 to 2012. During 2010, global wind power capacity increased by 24 % relative to 2009, an annual increase rate higher than for most other renewable technologies. In 2012, 44.7 GW of wind power capacity was operational and the annual increase was approximately 19 %. In 1990, the global capacity of wind turbine generators connected to the grid was around 2,000 MW, mainly in the Fig. 1 Global annual installed wind power generation capacity for 19962012. Data source [5] Fig. 2 Annual installed wind generation capacity by region for 20042012. Data source [5] Latin America Africa & middle East USA and Denmark [6]. At that time, the Netherlands, Germany, England, Italy and India began to use wind energy [6]. With technology advances, the cost of energy produced by wind turbines declined, but the overall use of wind power generation systems is still relatively small. The use of wind energy from 2004 to 2012 is shown in Fig. 2 for six regions of the world (Data source [5]). Since 2009, the Asian continent surpassed the North America and European continents. In 2012, China and India were responsible for 27 and 6 %, respectively, of wind energy use, i.e., the first and fifth highest. The USA and Canada are responsible for 21 and 2 %, respectively, and are the second and ninth largest wind energy users globally, while Germany and Spain account for 11 and 8 %, respectively, representing the third and fourth highest [5]. Many studies have been conducted using Pearson, Johnson, log-normal, Weibull, Rayleigh and Gaussian distributions [7]. The Weibull distribution function has been shown to have advantages over other distribution functions [8], including flexibility, simplicity and the ability to accommodate a wide range of data [9]. In recent years, much research on the assessment of wind energy potential has been performed around the word, with many of these investigations using wind data obtained at a height of 10 m aboveground level. Sahin et al. [10] showed that the wind resource for the east Mediterranean was excellent for power generation and that the area was suitable for private sector investment. In 2010, a wind potential assessment based on the Weibull model was performed for the capital of Iran, Tehran, for 11 years (19952005) and concluded that the wind energy potential was promising, especially in March, April and May [11]. In 2011, a study of the wind potential for three areas of Turkey (Mediterranean, West Black Sea and interior Aegean regions) determined that these regions have very good wind potential for electricity generation [12]. Mostafaeipour et al. [13] studied the Binalood region in Iran in 2013 using measured wind speed data for 20072010 at 10, 30 and 40 m heights, and showed that the long-term wind speeds were sufficiently high to provide a good wind energy potential for grid connection systems. Other studies related to Iran include investigations of the potential for offshore wind turbines in Iran, a comparison with the world [14] and the future of renewable energies in Iran [15], and a comparison of renewable energy issues in the Middle East and Iran [16]. In 2007, an investigation was performed of the wind potential of the Manjil area, a potentially advantageous region to install wind turbines in Iran and around the world. It was demonstrated that the growth of investment and installation of more wind turbines had increased the share of wind energy use in Iran and had been very important to the regions economic development [17]. Saeidi et al. [18] investigated in 2011 wind resources at the northern and southern Khorasan Province of Iran, using the Weibull model, and showed that the wind resources in Bojnourd, Esfarayen and Nehbandan were appropriate for both ongrid and stand-alone activities. In 2011, a feasibility study using the Weibull model was performed on employing wind energy for the city of Babak, Iran, and showed that small wind turbine projects were feasible for supplying electricity to homes at the site. Also, the study site is suitable for off-grid applications [19]. Jie et al. [20] assessed the available wind energy potential in Inner Mongolian China using Weibull, logistic and l (...truncated)