Assessing cross-sectoral climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation: an introduction to the CLIMSAVE project

Climatic Change (2015) 128:153–167 DOI 10.1007/s10584-015-1324-3 EDITORIAL Assessing cross-sectoral climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation: an introduction to the CLIMSAVE project P. A. Harrison & I. P. Holman & P. M. Berry Received: 11 August 2014 / Accepted: 3 January 2015 / Published online: 17 January 2015 # Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015 Abstract Quantitative participatory exploration of the many complex issues surrounding cross-sectoral climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation under uncertain futures is dependent on the provision, in some form, of scenarios and scenario outputs. However, the normal provision by the research community of pre-defined scenario outputs results in a lack of flexibility for stakeholders regarding choice of climate models, scenarios, scenario quantification and output indicators which in turn can lead to a lack of trust. This Special Issue describes the development and application of a web-based interactive simulation and display environment, called the CLIMSAVE Integrated Assessment (IA) Platform, which provides a holistic (cross-sectoral, climate and socio-economic change) modelling framework. The IA Platform guides the user through simulation of (1) potential impacts under scenarios of climate and/or socio-economic change, (2) identification of sectoral and multi-sectoral vulnerability ‘hotspots’ either before or after adaptation, (3) the potential for adaptation to reduce impacts within the capital constraints of the selected scenario(s), and (4) the cost-effectiveness of adaptation measures. The Special Issue explores how the IA Platform has been: (i) designed to provide a user-friendly, intuitive and facilitating, rather than predictive or prescriptive, environment for users; and (ii) utilised to quantitatively explore a diverse range of uncertain futures across Europe. 1 Introduction Adaptation to the changing climate is an urgent policy issue which has high stakes for current and future societies. Climate change adaptation has become increasingly important at institutional and political levels in Europe since the publication of “An EU Strategy on Adaptation to Climate Change” (EC 2013), which recognises that mitigation alone, though still of primary This article is part of a Special Issue on “Regional Integrated Assessment of Cross-sectoral Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability” with Guest Editors Paula A. Harrison and Pam M. Berry. P. A. Harrison (*) : P. M. Berry Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University Centre for the Environment, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK e-mail: I. P. Holman Cranfield Water Science Institute, Cranfield University, Cranfield Bedford MK43 0AL, UK 154 Climatic Change (2015) 128:153–167 importance, no longer constitutes an effective climate change policy. Adaptation policymaking is a multi-level issue. Effective adaptation emerging out of decisions made by local community actors needs to be strongly supported by an empowering national and EU institutional setting which facilitates coordination and knowledge sharing among the EU Member States (Pataki et al. 2012). However, the EU White Paper on a European adaptation framework (EC 2009) highlighted that information and research on climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe remains fragmented and is not effectively shared across sectors and decision-making levels. Knowledge integration is further hindered by the provision of predefined scenario outputs by the research community. This presents a lack of flexibility for stakeholders as choices regarding scenarios, scenario quantification, sectors and output indicators have all been pre-determined by the researchers, which in turn can lead to a lack of transparency and trust. To build trust and user relevance, it is important that stakeholders be participants in, rather than observers of, impact and adaptation studies (Turnpenny et al. 2004; Salter et al. 2010). However, there are relatively few stakeholder-led quantitative studies which undertake a holistic assessment of the effects of our changing climate, taking explicit account of crosssectoral interactions and the influence of socio-economic and political changes in addition to climate changes (Holman et al. 2008; Harrison et al. 2013). There is, therefore, a need for participatory IA tools to facilitate this process. The CLIMSAVE (Climate Change Integrated assessment Methodology for cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe) project developed and applied such a tool for Europe. The user-friendly, interactive web-based tool allows stakeholders to quantitatively assess climate change impacts and vulnerabilities for a range of sectors: agriculture, forests, biodiversity, coasts, water resources and urban development. The linking of models for the different sectors enables stakeholders to see how their interactions could affect changes to the rural and urban landscape of Europe. The tool also enables stakeholders to explore adaptation strategies for reducing climate change vulnerability, discovering where, when and under what circumstances such actions may help, within the capital constraints of the selected scenario(s). It further highlights the cost-effectiveness and cross-sectoral benefits and conflicts of different adaptation options and enables uncertainties to be investigated to better inform the development of robust policy responses. The tool has not been designed to be a decision support system, but rather to be an interactive, exploratory tool that raises awareness of the complex issues surrounding adaptation to climate change and facilitates a discourse between different groups of stakeholders on key issues or trade-offs that need to be considered in adaptation planning. This Special Issue introduces the need for regional integrated assessments of future (climate and socio-economic) change, the role of stakeholders in such studies, the importance of considering cross-sectoral interactions and provides an overview of key findings from applying the CLIMSAVE integrated assessment tool to assess the crosssectoral implications of climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation in a series of 17 papers (Fig. 1). 2 What is CLIMSAVE? CLIMSAVE was a research project funded by the European Union from 2010 to 2013. It was a large multi-institution endeavour involving 18 European and international partners from 13 countries, including small and medium size enterprises and specialists in stakeholder engagement and workshop facilitation. The main aim of CLIMSAVE was to deliver an integrated methodology to assess cross-sectoral climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation. It Climatic Change (2015) 128:153–167 155 Stakeholder engagement process Gramberger et al. (this volume) Dubrovsky et al. (this volume) Kok et al. (this volume) Adaptaon to climate and socio-economic change Audsley et al. (this volume) Holman et al. (2014) Mokrech et al. (thi (...truncated)