Development and application of integrative modeling tools in support of food-energy-water nexus planning—a research agenda

J Environ Stud Sci (2016) 6:3–10 DOI 10.1007/s13412-016-0361-1 Development and application of integrative modeling tools in support of food-energy-water nexus planning—a research agenda Fernando Miralles-Wilhelm 1 Published online: 25 January 2016 # The Author(s) 2016. This article is published with open access at Springerlink.com Abstract This paper outlines a research agenda on the development of analytical tools to support the analysis of integrated food, energy, and water (FEW) systems. The thrust of this agenda is on increasing awareness and building capacity on interdisciplinary data and mathematical modeling toward integrated planning and identification/evaluation of trade-offs and synergies in developing such systems. The research agenda consists of development of principles, algorithms, and model formulations for understanding and evaluating the potential of implementing FEW nexus approaches within a systems perspective. The proposed agenda also stresses the need for integrating areas of disciplinary expertise, the ability to identify and address shared needs of FEW stakeholders, and facilitating tailored analyses over different geographical regions and temporal scales. Outputs and products of this research are quantitative tools that focus on upstream sector planning in order to identify primary opportunities and constraints to food, energy, and water system development, indicating priorities for more detailed analysis as well as providing characterization of alternative system configuration that meet integrated FEW objectives. This research agenda should also result in an improved understanding of economic and social trade-offs among competing FEW priorities; responses to the research questions contained in this agenda are bound to support decision-making in integrated FEW system planning and particularly prioritization of FEW investments. * Fernando Miralles-Wilhelm 1 Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center/Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland, 5825 University Research Court, College Park, MD 20740, USA Keywords Food . Energy . Water . Nexus . Modeling Introduction: the FEW nexus globally The interdependency between food, energy, and water (FEW) is growing in importance as demand for each of these vital resources increases. Several regions of the world are already experiencing FEW security challenges, which adversely affect sustainable economic growth. In addition, there is already evidence of the effects of climate change on the availability and demand for food, energy, and water, especially in fastgrowing countries. At the same time, not only is scarcity in either water, energy, or food caused by physical factors but there are also social, political, and economic issues at play that affect the allocation, availability, and use of these resources. Population and economic growth are expected to continue to increase demand for food, energy, and water. Yet, approximately 800 million and 2.5 billion people remain without water and sanitation, respectively. Stresses such as rapid urbanization and climate change are growing on all water uses. Cities in developing countries will face meeting the demand of 70 million more people each year over the next 20 years. By 2030, 45 % more water will be needed just to meet human food needs. Further, over 1.3 billion people are still without access to electricity worldwide and closing the energy gap has implications on water, such as for fuel extraction, cooling water, and hydropower. In the case of water, scarcity is on the rise. About 2.8 billion people live in areas of high water stress and 1.2 billion live in areas of physical scarcity. It is estimated that by 2030, nearly half of the world’s population will be living in areas of high water stress affecting energy and food security (WWAP 2012). Climate variability and related extreme weather are already causing major floods and droughts, putting 4 populations, livelihoods, and assets in danger. This variability is likely to worsen under current trends; the number of people affected by climate-related disasters doubled every decade in the last 40 years. Decreasing water quality also impacts growth as it degrades ecosystems; causes health-related diseases; constrains economic activities such as agriculture, energy generation, industrial production, and tourism; impacts the value of property and assets; and increases wastewater treatment costs. Demand for energy for electricity generation will grow as population and economic activity expand (Shah et al. 2009; Voinov and Cardwell 2009; WWAP 2012; Schornagel, et. al. 2012). Emerging economies like China, India, and Brazil will double their energy consumption in the next 40 years. By 2050, Africa’s electricity generation will be seven times as high as its electricity generation nowadays. In Asia, by 2050, primary energy production will almost double, and electricity generation will more than triple. In Latin America, increased production will come from non-conventional oil, thermal, and gas sources and the amount of electricity generated is expected to increase fivefold in the next 40 years; the amount of water needed will triple (World Energy Council 2010). Water is needed in almost all energy generation processes, and energy is needed to extract, treat, and distribute water and to clean the used and polluted water. Water is required for hydropower generation and for cooling purposes in all thermal power plants. Moreover, water is used to extract or process fuels (oil, coal, gas, uranium) and hydraulic fracturing processes are expanding rapidly, consuming significant quantities of water. Both energy and water are used in the production of crops, and some crops are used to generate energy through biofuels. Water supplies in turn will be put under increased stress due to the impacts of increased withdrawals for other water uses, population increase, and climate change. Thermoelectric power plants account for 39 % of the freshwater withdrawn every year in the USA (USGS 2015; see Fig. 1) and for 43 % in Europe (Rubbelke 2011), almost just as much as the agricultural irrigation use. Although most of Fig. 1 Freshwater withdrawals in the USA (USGS 2015) J Environ Stud Sci (2016) 6:3–10 the water is not consumed and is returned to the water source, the amounts of water withdrawn by the power and food production sectors have an impact on the ecosystem and on the water resources of a region. Climate change will have a range of impacts in different parts of the world, including impacts on the supply and demand for energy and water. Impacts on water supply will vary and are likely to include increases or decreases in average precipitation, surface runoff, and stream flow; increases or decreases in rainfall variability; and increases in the probability of extreme events, such as intense storms and floods, and droughts. Reduced runoff from climate change trends in precipitation and evapotr (...truncated)