Changes of flood risk on the northern foothills of the Tatra Mountains
Acta Geophys.
DOI 10.1007/s11600-017-0075-0
RESEARCH ARTICLE - SPECIAL ISSUE
Changes of flood risk on the northern foothills of the Tatra
Mountains
Z. W. Kundzewicz1 • M. Stoffel2,3 • B. Wy_zga4,5 • V. Ruiz-Villanueva2,3 •
T. Niedźwiedź5 • R. Kaczka5 • J. A. Ballesteros-Cánovas2,3 • I. Pińskwar1 •
E. Łupikasza5 • J. Zawiejska6 • P. Mikuś4 • A. Choryński1 • H. Hajdukiewicz4 •
B. Spyt5 • K. Janecka5
Received: 3 March 2017 / Accepted: 12 August 2017
The Author(s) 2017. This article is an open access publication
Abstract The present paper reviews selected outcomes of
the FLORIST project devoted to flood risk in the region of
the northern foothills of the Tatra Mountains in Poland and
summarizes novel results. The project encompassed theoretical, field, and modeling work. It was focused around
observation-based hydroclimatology; projections for the
future; dendrogeomorphology; as well as influence of
transport of large wood on fluvial processes. The project
improved understanding and interpreting changes in highflow frequency and magnitude as well as changes in flood
risk in the region, related to the presence of large wood in
mountain streams. A unique database on past episodes of
intense precipitation and flooding was created, harnessing
multiple sources. The project showed that the analysis of
tree rings and wood logs can offer useful information,
complementing and considerably enriching the knowledge
of river floods in the region of northern foothills of the
Tatra Mountains. Retrospective and scenario-defined
& Z. W. Kundzewicz
1
Institute for Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish
Academy of Sciences, Poznań, Poland
2
Dendrolab.ch, Institute of Geological Sciences, University of
Bern, Bern, Switzerland
3
Climatic Change and Climate Impacts, Institute for
Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva,
Switzerland
4
Institute of Nature Conservation, Polish Academy of
Sciences, Kraków, Poland
5
Faculty of Earth Sciences, University of Silesia, Katowice,
Poland
6
Institute of Geography, Pedagogical University of Cracow,
Kraków, Poland
modeling of selected past fluvial events in the region was
also performed.
Keywords Flood risk Flood hazard Upper Vistula
Basin Poland
Introduction
In recent decades, flood losses have considerably grown at
every spatial scale, from local to regional, national, continental, and global (Kundzewicz et al. 2013, 2014a). In two
recent decades, there were 2 years (1997 and 2010) when
economic losses caused by floods in Poland soared to the
level of 1% of the national GDP and the number of fatalities reached several dozens (Kundzewicz et al. 2012). In
the area of the Tatra Mountains and their foothills, annual
precipitation is higher than anywhere else in Poland. In the
Tatra Mountains, precipitation is by 50–100% higher than
in the remaining parts of the Polish Carpathians and 2–3
times higher than in the lowland part of Poland. Heavy
rains can lead to generation of river floods that propagate
northwards over hundreds of kilometers, down to the
lowland areas. Hence, the Polish-Swiss research project
‘‘Flood risk on the northern foothills of the Tatra Mountains’’ (FLORIST), carried out from July 2011 to
September 2016, was of considerable social relevance, as
well as of theoretical and practical importance and interest.
Research objectives
Among the primary objectives of the FLORIST project
(Kundzewicz et al. 2014b) were the following:
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Creating an information database on torrential disasters
and floods in the region, including magnitude and
frequency, flood-producing mechanisms, triggers, and
impacts. Several sources were harnessed: from routine
observations made by the hydrometeorological service,
to references, and to innovative dendrogeomorphology
contribution generated within the FLORIST project.
Estimating flood risk changes resulting from in-channel
wood. One of the relevant activities was a series of
tracking experiments, where metal tags and radio
transmitters were used, fixed to trees growing along
channel banks and to logs put into the river. Patterns of
wood storage in mountain streams were examined,
dependent on the ratio of stream width and riparian tree
height. Mathematical modeling of transport and retention of large wood was also carried out, as well as
analysis of probability of bridge clogging with inchannel wood.
Performing detection of change in long-time series of
intense precipitation observation records, as well as
atmospheric circulation patterns and high river flows.
Analyzing projections of future changes in the frequency and magnitude of intense precipitation and high
stream-flow. This included comparison of the situation
in two time intervals—in the reference period and in
the future projection horizon.
Performing mathematical modeling (both retrospective
and scenario-defined) of selected torrential disaster
events and river floods as well as assessing involved
risks, linking climatic variables with characteristics of
torrential disasters and river floods for the reference
period and modeling of selected past events.
The present paper reviews selected outcomes of the
FLORIST project and presents novel results.
Data and methods
Meteorological and hydrological data used in the FLORIST project were provided by the IMGW-PIB (Institute of
Meteorology and Water Management—National Research
Institute, being Polish National Hydrometeorological Service). Field work undertaken within the FLORIST project,
particularly related to flood scars on trees, dendrochronology, and wood transport and deposition, generated additional data.
The project embraced three essential areas that can be
labelled as: theory and field work, as well as mathematical
modeling. There were four competence clusters in the
project, focused around:
1.
2.
climatology and hydrology based on observations;
projections of future climate change and its impact;
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3.
4.
dendrogeomorphology; and
influence of large wood
processes.
on
geomorphological
Climatology and hydrology
The information database was constructed in the FLORIST
project, allowing to provide reconstruction and interpretation of characteristics of past flood disasters. Use was made
of hydrometeorological records stemming from the
IMGW-PIB operational network and from the OGIMET
synoptic data base, as well as of own data, collected in the
FLORIST project. The collection of the meteorological
data was undertaken as well as the calendar of atmospheric
circulation types, air mass, and atmospheric fronts was
produced. A hydrological database of flow of rivers and
streams, as well as of floods in the area of study, and a
collection of historical information for the area were
created.
The FLORIST project included examination of variability of climatic and hydrological processes in the area of
study. Changes in meteorological conditions and heavy
precipitation in particular (Łupikasza et al. 2016), as well
as changes (...truncated)
