Statistical Models of Runway Incursions Based on Runway Intersections and Taxiways

Available online at http://docs.lib.purdue.edu/jate Journal of Aviation Technology and Engineering 5:2 (2016) 15–26 Statistical Models of Runway Incursions Based on Runway Intersections and Taxiways Mary E. Johnson, Xun Zhao, Brian Faulkner, and John P. Young Purdue University Abstract According to the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), the number of runway incursions are rising. The configuration of runways and taxiways at airports has been identified by the FAA as possibly being related to the number of incursions. In this paper, the relationship between airport geometry factors and the number of runway incursions at specific United States airports is explored using statistical analyses. Airport operations data from the FAA Air Traffic Activity System, runway incursion data from the FAA Aviation Safety Information Analysis and Sharing System from 2009 through 2013, and airport geometry data created using airport geometry features from the FAA airport diagrams were collected. The 30 busiest airports with intersecting runways and the 30 busiest airports without intersecting runways were compared. As expected, the analysis of the data show that at a 5 0.05 level, runway incursions occur at a more frequent rate for airports with intersecting runways compared to airports with no intersecting runways. In the second phase of statistical analysis, the number of incursions per 100,000 operations at the 63 busiest United States airports was analyzed using four airport geometry factors as independent variables in regression analysis. The resulting regression equation was significant at the a 5 0.05 level and contained two independent variables: the number of crossing taxiways per runway and the number of runway intersections per runway. The equation and each variable in the equation are statistically significant and the equation explains 17.3% of the variation in incursions per 100,000 operations. Keywords: runway incursion, runway geometry, airport safety About the Authors Mary E. Johnson, PhD, is an associate professor in the School of Aviation & Transportation Technology at Purdue University in West Lafayette, IN. She earned her BS, MS, and PhD in industrial engineering at The University of Texas at Arlington. Prior to Purdue, she worked in both academia and industry. Her research interests are in modeling of aviation sustainability, aviation exhaust emissions, and aviation operations. She teaches graduate courses in quality and productivity, strategic decision making for technology investments, aviation sustainability, and process design and simulation. She was elected to be an educator trustee on the University Aviation Association board in 2015. Xun Zhao is a PhD student in the Department of Aviation Technology at Purdue University, where he recently earned his MS in aviation and aerospace management. He earned his BS in aeronautics and astronautics engineering at North University of China. Brian Faulkner is a former student in the Department of Aviation Technology at Purdue University, where he recently earned his MS in aviation and aerospace management. Brian is working in the aviation industry. John P. Young is a professor in the School of Aviation & Transportation Technology at Purdue University. He has developed graduate courses in aviation human factors, human error and safety, and management and design of training systems. In addition, he has provided leadership oversight to the advanced flight simulation laboratory. He holds all instructor and flight ratings through the airline transport pilot certificate, including a B-727 type rating. Previously he was employed as a flight crewmember for Braniff International Airlines. He has remained active in the University Aviation Association, chairing numerous committees and serving as president and secretary of the organization. http://dx.doi.org/10.7771/2159-6670.1121 16 M. E. Johnson et al. / Journal of Aviation Technology and Engineering Introduction Runway incursions are potentially dangerous and increasing in number (FAA, 2012a). Airport runway and taxiway geometry may be related to incursions (FAA, 2012b). In this paper, the relationship between airport geometry factors and the number of runway incursions per 100,000 operations at specific United States airports is explored. First, the number of incursions per 100,000 operations at airports with runways that intersect other runways is compared to airports with runways that do not intersect. The 30 busiest airports with intersecting runways and the 30 busiest airports without intersecting runways are based on calendar year 2012 enplanements. Next, the number of incursions at the 63 busiest United States airports, based on enplanements during calendar year 2013, is analyzed using five airport geometry factors related to runway/runway intersections and runway/taxiway intersections. Airport operations data from the FAA (Federal Aviation Administration) Air Traffic Activity System; runway incursion data from the FAA Aviation Safety Information Analysis and Sharing System (FAA, 2014a) from January 1, 2009 to December 31, 2013; and data created using airport geometry features from the FAA airport diagrams were used. A primary reason for this research is to better understand the relationship between runway geometries and runway incursions, with an aim to potentially reduce the occurrence of runway incursions. A runway incursion is defined by the FAA as ‘‘any occurrence at an aerodrome involving the incorrect presence of an aircraft, vehicle, or person on the protected area of a surface designated for the landing and takeoff of aircraft’’ (FAA, 2015, para. 1). Incursions range in severity from Category A to Category D, with Category A incursions being the most severe and Category D incursions being the least severe. A Category A incursion is one in which two or more aircraft nearly collide. A Category D incursion is simply an incident that meets the definition of a runway incursion but poses no immediate safety threats. Even more severe than Category A incursions are accidents (FAA, 2015). This research studied total incursions and did not separate incursions by category. First, the impact of intersecting runways on runway incursions is studied to determine if the presence of intersecting runways is correlated to runway incursions. The objective is to answer the question: Is the presence of intersecting runways related to the rate of runway incursions at an airport? To answer this question, a null hypothesis is tested for significance at a 5 0.05. The null hypothesis states that the frequency of runway incursions at airports with intersecting runways is the same as at airports without intersecting runways; the alternate hypothesis is that the frequency of runway incursions is greater at airports with intersecting runways than at airports without runway intersections. In addition to intersecting runways, the number and type of taxiway-to-runway intersections and (...truncated)