Integrated modelling to support decision-making for marine social–ecological systems in Australia

ICES Journal of Marine Science (2017), 74(9), 2298–2308. doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsx078 Review Article Jessica Melbourne-Thomas1,2*, Andrew J. Constable1,2, Elizabeth A. Fulton3,4, Stuart P. Corney2, Rowan Trebilco2, Alistair J. Hobday3,4, Julia L. Blanchard4,5, Fabio Boschetti6,7, Rodrigo H. Bustamante8, Roger Cropp9, Jason D. Everett10,11, Aysha Fleming4,12, Ben Galton-Fenzi1,2, Simon D. Goldsworthy13, Andrew Lenton3, Ana Lara-Lopez14, Rich Little3,4, Martin P. Marzloff5,15, Richard Matear3, Mathieu Mongin3, Eva Plaganyi4,8, Roger Proctor14, James S. Risbey3, Barbara J. Robson12,16, David C. Smith3,4, Michael D. Sumner1,2, and E. Ingrid van Putten3,4 1 Australian Antarctic Division, Department of the Environment and Energy, Kingston, TAS 7001, Australia Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia 3 CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia 4 Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia 5 Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia 6 CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Perth, WA 6001, Australia 7 School of Earth and Geographical Sciences at the University of Western Australia, Crawley, WA 6009, Australia 8 CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Brisbane, QLD 4001, Australia 9 Griffith School of Environment, Griffith University, Nathan, QLD 4111, Australia 10 Evolution and Ecology Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia 11 Sydney Institute of Marine Science, Sydney, NSW 2088, Australia 12 CSIRO Land & Water, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia 13 South Australian Research and Development Institute, Aquatic Sciences, West Beach, SA 5024, Australia 14 Integrated Marine Observing System, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia 15 IFREMER Centre de Bretagne, DYNECO Benthic Ecology Laboratory (LEBCO), CS 10070, 29280 Plouzané, France 16 CSIRO Land & Water, Black Mountain, ACT 2365, Australia 2 *Corresponding author: tel: þ61 (0)3 6232 3322; fax: þ61 (0)3 6226 2440; e-mail: Melbourne-Thomas, J., Constable, A. J., Fulton, E. A., Corney, S. P., Trebilco, R., Hobday, A. J., Blanchard, J. L., Boschetti, F., Bustamante, R. H., Cropp, R., Everett, J. D., Fleming, A., Galton-Fenzi, B., Goldsworthy, S. D., Lenton, A., Lara-Lopez, A., Little, R., Marzloff, M. P., Matear, R., Mongin, M., Plaganyi, E., Proctor, R., Risbey, J. S., Robson, B. J., Smith, D. C., Sumner, M. D., and van Putten, E. I. Integrated modelling to support decision-making for marine social–ecological systems in Australia. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 74: 2298–2308. Received 3 November 2016; revised 13 April 2017; accepted 14 April 2017; advance access publication 26 May 2017. Policy- and decision-makers require assessments of status and trends for marine species, habitats, and ecosystems to understand if human activities in the marine environment are sustainable, particularly in the face of global change. Central to many assessments are statistical and dynamical models of populations, communities, ecosystems, and their socioeconomic systems and management frameworks. The establishment of a national system that could facilitate the development of such model-based assessments has been identified as a priority for addressing management challenges for Australia’s marine environment. Given that most assessments require cross-scale information, individual models cannot capture all of the spatial, temporal, biological, and socioeconomic scales that are typically needed. Coupling or integrating models across scales and domains can expand the scope for developing comprehensive and internally consistent, system-level assessments, including C International Council for the Exploration of the Sea 2017. All rights reserved. V For Permissions, please email: Integrated modelling to support decision-making for marine social–ecological systems in Australia Integrated modelling to support decision-making for marine social–ecological systems 2299 higher-level feedbacks in social–ecological systems. In this article, we summarize: (i) integrated modelling for marine systems currently being undertaken in Australia, (ii) methods used for integration and comparison of models, and (iii) improvements to facilitate further integration, particularly with respect to standards and specifications. We consider future needs for integrated modelling of marine social–ecological systems in Australia and provide a set of recommendations for priority focus areas in the development of a national approach to integrated modelling. These recommendations draw on—and have broader relevance for—international efforts around integrated modelling to inform decision-making for marine systems. Keywords: Australia, integrated modelling, marine systems, social–ecological systems. Introduction The Australian marine context Australia is a marine nation; more than 85% of its population live within 50 km of the coast, and its surrounding oceans have a strong impact on terrestrial climates (NMSC, 2015). Australia’s ‘marine economy’ is projected to grow three times faster than its national gross domestic product over the next decade (AIMS Index of Marine Industry, Australian Institute of Marine Science in NMSC, 2015). The Australian Government’s National Marine Science Plan 2015–2025 highlights seven challenges for the next 10 years: marine sovereignty and security; energy security; food security; biodiversity conservation; sustainable urban coastal development; climate change adaptation; and resources allocation. It emphasizes the need to develop and refine decision-support tools that translate knowledge and data into useful information— including realistic projections—for effective decision-making in relation to these challenges. Finally, the report identifies the need for a coordinated national marine environment and socioeconomic modelling system. Aims The aim of this review of integrated modelling for marine systems in Australia is to guide the development of a toolbox of integrated models that is well documented and accessible. A key outcome is to identify priorities to meet the need for a coordinated national approach to integrated modelling for marine social–ecological systems—as has been articulated in the National Marine Science Plan. The review is based on an assessment of the literature and input from experts in the Australian marine science community. It summarizes integrated modelling efforts for marine social– ecological systems in Australia, including methods that are used for integration and comparison. It also lists priority needs for facilitating further integration, particularly with respect to standards and specifications. Models are fundamental tools for assessing the status of marine ecosystems and the effects of human activities in the marine environment (e.g. Borja et al., 2009, 2012, 2013; SoE, 2011). Modelling can inform: (i) mitigation (...truncated)