Projected impacts of climate change on marine fish and fisheries

ICES Journal of Marine Science ICES Journal of Marine Science (2013), 70(5), 1023– 1037. doi:10.1093/icesjms/fst081 Projected impacts of climate change on marine fish and fisheries Anne B. Hollowed 1*, Manuel Barange 2, Richard J. Beamish 3, Keith Brander4, Kevern Cochrane 5, Kenneth Drinkwater 6, Michael G. G. Foreman7, Jonathan A. Hare 8, Jason Holt 9, Shin-ichi Ito10, Suam Kim 11, Jacquelynne R. King 3, Harald Loeng 6, Brian R. MacKenzie 12, Franz J. Mueter 13, Thomas A. Okey14, Myron A. Peck 15, Vladimir I. Radchenko 16, Jake C. Rice 17, Michael J. Schirripa 18, Akihiko Yatsu 19, and Yasuhiro Yamanaka20 1 Alaska Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA 98115, USA 2 Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, Plymouth PL1 3DH, UK 3 Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Pacific Biological Station, 3190 Hammond Bay Rd., Nanaimo, BC, Canada V9T 6N7 4 Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, DTU Aqua-National Institute of Aquatic Resources, Technical University of Denmark, Charlottenlund Castle, Jaegersborg Allé 1, 2920 Charlottenlund, Denmark 5 Department of Ichthyology and Fisheries Science, PO Box 94, Grahamstown 6150, South Africa 6 Institute of Marine Research, PO Box 1870, Nordnes, 5817 Bergen, Norway 7 Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Institute of Ocean Sciences, 9860 W. Saanich Rd, PO Box 6000, Sidney, BC, Canada V8L 4B2 8 NOAA Fisheries, Northeast Fisheries Science Center, Narragansett Laboratory, Narragansett, RI, USA 9 National Oceanography Centre, Joseph Proudman Building, 6 Brownlow Street, Liverpool L3 5DA, UK 10 Tohoku National Fisheries Research Institute, FRA, 3-27-5 Shinhama-cho, Shiogama, Miyagi 985-001, Japan 11 Department of Marine Biology, Pukyong National University, 599-1 Daeyeon-3dong, Nam-gu, Busan R 608-737, Korea 12 Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate and Center for Ocean Life, DTU Aqua-National Institute of Aquatic Resources, Technical University of Denmark, KavalergûËrden 6, DK 2920 Charlottenlund, Denmark 13 School of Fisheries and Ocean Sciences, Juneau Center, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, 17101 Pt. Lena Loop Rd, Juneau, AK 99801, USA 14 School of Environmental Studies, University of Victoria, PO Box 3060 STN CSC, Victoria BC V8W 3R4, Canada 15 Institute for Hydrobiology and Fisheries Science, Olbersweg 24, 22767 Hamburg, Germany 16 Pacific Research Institute of Fisheries and Oceanography (TINRO-Center), 4 Shevchenko Alley, Vladivostok, Primorsky Kray 690950, Russia 17 Science Sector, Department of Fisheries and Oceans, 200 Kent Street Station 12S015, Ottawa, ON, Canada K1A0E6 18 Southeast Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 75 Virginia Beach Dr., Miami, FL 33149, USA 19 Seikai National Fisheries Research Institute, Fisheries Research Agency, 1551–8 Taira-machi, Nagasaki 851 –2213, Japan 20 Graduate School of Environmental Science, Division of Environmental Resources, Hokkaido University, Hokkaido, Japan *Corresponding author: tel: +1 206-526-4223; fax: +1 206-526-6723; e-mail: Hollowed, A. B., Barange, M., Beamish, R., Brander, K., Cochrane, K., Drinkwater, K., Foreman, M., Hare, J., Holt, J., Ito, S-I., Kim, S., King, J., Loeng, H., MacKenzie, B., Mueter, F., Okey, T., Peck, M. A., Radchenko, V., Rice, J., Schirripa, M., Yatsu, A., and Yamanaka, Y. 2013. Projected impacts of climate change on marine fish and fisheries. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 70: 1023 – 1037. Received 7 December 2012; accepted 3 May 2013; advance access publication 6 July 2013. This paper reviews current literature on the projected effects of climate change on marine fish and shellfish, their fisheries, and fisherydependent communities throughout the northern hemisphere. The review addresses the following issues: (i) expected impacts on ecosystem productivity and habitat quantity and quality; (ii) impacts of changes in production and habitat on marine fish and shellfish species including effects on the community species composition, spatial distributions, interactions, and vital rates of fish and shellfish; (iii) impacts on fisheries and their associated communities; (iv) implications for food security and associated changes; and (v) uncertainty and modelling skill assessment. Climate change will impact fish and shellfish, their fisheries, and fishery-dependent communities through a complex suite of linked processes. Integrated interdisciplinary research teams are forming in many regions to project these complex responses. National Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea 2013. This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the US. 1024 A. B. Hollowed et al. and international marine research organizations serve a key role in the coordination and integration of research to accelerate the production of projections of the effects of climate change on marine ecosystems and to move towards a future where relative impacts by region could be compared on a hemispheric or global level. Eight research foci were identified that will improve the projections of climate impacts on fish, fisheries, and fishery-dependent communities. Keywords: climate change, fish, fisheries, fisheries-dependent communities, uncertainty, vulnerability assessment. Introduction The marine science community now regularly uses climate change projections released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC; IPCC, 2007) to make qualitative and quantitative projections of marine ecosystem responses to environmental changes associated with the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (e.g. climate change and ocean acidification). These projections indicate that climate change will affect fish, fisheries, and fisheries-based economies around the globe as well as broader components of marine ecosystems (ACIA, 2005; Allison et al., 2009; Cochrane et al., 2009; Drinkwater et al., 2010; Blanchard et al., 2012; Doney et al., 2012; Merino et al., 2012). The potential implications of climate change for marine ecosystems, and goods and services derived from marine ecosystems, have prompted the formation of integrated interdisciplinary research partnerships to quantify these impacts in many regions throughout the world (Figure 1; Barange et al., 2011; Wiese et al., 2012). Several international organizations [e.g. the International Council for Exploration of the Sea (ICES), the North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES), the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)] and international research programmes (e.g. Ecosystems Studies of Sub-Arctic Seas, ESSAS) have sponsored symposia focused on climate change effects on marine ecosystems to encourage international research partnerships and to wide (...truncated)