Air security of NATO’s eastern flank: threats and challenges

Scientific Journal of the Military University of Land Forces ISSN: 2544-7122 (print), 2545-0719 (online) 2020, Volume 52, Number 2(196), Pages 352-365 DOI: 10.5604/01.3001.0014.2538 Original article Air security of NATO’s eastern flank: threats and challenges Daniel Michalski* , Paweł Bernat National Security and Logistics Faculty, Polish Air Force University, Dęblin, Poland, e-mail: ; INFORMATIONS ABSTRACT Article history: The focal point of the paper is to assess the air security on the NATO’s eastern flank in the context of the dynamic changes that have occurred in its immediate vicinity. The authors, beginning with an overview of the current framework of the air security situation in the region, have analysed the developments that have taken place in that regard. The modernisation of missile systems, as well as air and space forces by the Russian Federation, both in qualitative and quantitative terms, have been the subject of thorough scrutiny. The challenges generated by the new situation have been weighed against the current and future NATO’s defence capabilities against air threats. Submited: 20 March 2019 Accepted: 22 October 2019 Published: 15 June 2020 KEYWORDS * Corresponding author air defence, air security, air threats, NATO’s eastern flank, Russian Federation’s air force © 2020 by Author(s). This is an open access article under the Creative Commons Attribution International License (CC BY). http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Introduction The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation counts currently 28 members and has undoubtedly been the longest-lasting and the best military alliance in modern history. From the 1970s, NATO has been a guarantor of maintaining peace and security in Europe. Following the end of the cold war, due to the lack of threat from the Soviet Union, many experts on international cooperation wondered about the future of the alliance. It was argued that the end of three threats from the former adversary – the USSR – did not mean the end of threats to NATO [1-5]. However, one of the darkest visions of the future was related to the return of past conflicts [6]. One may risk the claim that the current politics of the Russian Federation makes that vision become reality. The military conflict that was initiated on the territory of Ukraine after the annexation of Crimea by Russia in April 2014, undeniably finished the period of carefree faith in unwavering peace. Since the beginning of military actions in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, the countries in central and eastern Europe began to question the NATO’s capability to secure their safety in spite of the fact that the Western Alliance represents the institutionalisation of the transatlantic security community based on common values and the collective identity of liberal democracies [7]. In the event when these values are in peril, the alliance should possess proper means and power to successfully eradicate those threats. In that context, 352 Air security of NATO’s eastern flank: threats and challenges a critical analysis of the possessed potential has to be carried out, and then it should be compared with the potential threats. In the case of military security, particular attention should be given to the newest dimensions of conducting warfare. The analysis of the current military conflicts shows the constant increase of significance of air space and more and more frequent use of the air component in the military action. Moreover, on the account of such analysis, one may claim that air threat has become an integral element of all military actions, regardless of their scale, intensity, time, or geographical environment. Already at the beginning of the military aviation, G. Douhet – the author of “The Command of the Air” [8] noticed that the victory in a military confrontation is achieved by the party that is able to aptly foresee changes in the nature of war. The authors of the paper, inspired by this timeless statement and the changes occurring within the air security environment, came to the conclusion that a proper assessment of the threat generated by military aircraft (and other air warfare means) is necessary for carrying out an effective defence. They have, therefore, formulated the goal of the article as “identification of changes in air security in the eastern region of NATO”. The authors, in order to attain the presupposed aim, have conducted the evaluation of air security threats of NATO’s eastern flank, as well as the changes that have occurred and influenced the security environment and will continue doing so in the short term. In the last stage of the research, the authors have assessed the possibility of conducting air defence in the event of a military conflict in the discussed part of Europe. It enabled the determination of the necessary strategic changes that should be implemented in order to enhance NATO’s air security. 1. Air threats to NATO’s eastern flank Air security threats are defined as international and domestic processes, situations, or events that create a high risk of losing the capability of commanding the air space or losing its sovereignty and the freedom to accomplish goals pertinent to its exploration [9]. That threat, in its gist, is related to the real probability of using military violence in the air space. Air security threats to NATO’s eastern flank is generated, above all, by the Russian Federation. Hence, the first step of the analysis was the identification of air forces and strategic missile bases locations in the Russian territory (Fig. 1 and 2). The location of military bases and their potential determinate the anticipated direction of threat or carrying out military operations. The analysis of the locations of the air force and strategic missile bases shows preparing Russian military forces for operations towards west. Moreover, since the annexation of Crimea, Russia has been increasing the potential of the western and southern military regions. These military districts are in close proximity to the NATO’s eastern border and thus constitute a direct threat for the eastern flank of the alliance. Therefore, a detailed analysis of military potential in those two regions has been carried out. The literature review has shown that Russia maintains there 60 strategic missile systems, 2850 artillery units with a calibre greater than 100 mm, 570 aircraft, 180 fighter helicopters. After 2014, air forces operating in the western part of the country have also been strengthened – the 6th Air and Air Defence Forces Army got approximately 20 battalions equipped with S-400 missile systems [11]. Due to its specific geopolitical position, the Kaliningrad Oblast deserves particular attention. The region can be understood both as the area of cooperation and conflict between Russia 353 Daniel Michalski, Paweł Bernat Fig. 1. Location of air force bases in the Russian Federation Source: [10, p. 58]. Fig. 2. Location of strategic missile bases i (...truncated)