From Geopolitical Competition to Strategic Partnership: Turkey and Russia after The Cold War

ISSN: 1304-7310 (Print) 1304-7175 (Online) http://www.uidergisi.com.tr From Geopolitical Competition to Strategic Partnership: Turkey and Russia after The Cold War Evren BALTA Assoc. Prof. Dr., Department of International Relations, Özyeğin University To cite this article: Balta, Evren, “From Geopolitical Competition to Strategic Partnership: Turkey and Russia after The Cold War “, Uluslararasi İliskiler, Vol. 16, No. 63, 2019, pp. 6986, DOI: 10.33458/uidergisi.621309 To link to this article: https://dx.doi.org/10.33458/uidergisi.621309 Submitted: 18 March 2018 Last Revision: 11 May 2019 Published Online: 01 September 2019 Printed Version: 01 September 2019 Uluslararası İlişkiler Konseyi Derneği | International Relations Council of Turkey Uluslararası İlişkiler – Journal of International Relations E-mail : All rights of this paper are reserved by the International Relations Council of Turkey. With the exception of academic quotations, no part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, sold or transmitted in any form and by any means for public usage without a prior permission from the copyright holder. Any opinions and views expressed in this publication are the author(s)’s and do not reflect those of the Council, editors of the journal, and other authors. From Geopolitical Competition to Strategic Partnership: Turkey and Russia after The Cold War Evren BALTA Assoc. Prof. Dr., Özyeğin University, Department of International Relations, İstanbul. E-mail: ABSTRACT This article examines different analytical perspectives on Turkish-Russian relations and provides a conceptual history of developing connections between Turkey and Russia since the end of the Cold War. It first reviews evolving political relations, including military cooperation, and then focuses on economic relations, including energy cooperation. Finally, it discusses the socio-cultural aspects of bilateral relations, focusing on the movement of people. It shows how conflicting geopolitical interests have overshadowed the increasing economic cooperation and cultural exchange that had marked the previous two decades of bilateral relations. Although Turkey and Russia have competing regional interests, their dissatisfaction with and resentment of Western policies is one of the major reasons for their reluctant geopolitical cooperation. This article emphasizes the need for a multi-causal and analytically eclectic approach to analyzing Turkish-Russian relations that selectively recombines analytic components of causal mechanisms in competing research traditions. Keywords: Turkey, Russia, Turkish-Russian Relations, Economic Cooperation, Military Competition Jeopolitik Rekabetten Stratejik Ortaklığa: Soğuk Savaş Sonrası Türkiye - Rusya İlişkileri ÖZET Bu makale Türkiye-Rusya ilişkilerinde farklı analitik perspektifleri incelemekte ve Soğuk Savaş’ın sona ermesinden bu yana Türkiye - Rusya arasındaki ilişkileri farklı boyutlarıyla değerlendirmektedir. Makalede öncelikli olarak askeri işbirliği de dahil olmak üzere gelişmekte olan siyasi ilişkilere odaklanılmakta ve ardından enerji işbirliğini içerecek biçimde ekonomik ilişkilerin gelişimi ele alınmaktadır. Makale aynı zamanda ikili ilişkilerin sosyokültürel yönlerini değerlendirerek özel olarak insan hareketlerine odaklanmaktadır. İki ülkenin Soğuk Savaş sonrası ilişkilerini belirleyen ekonomik işbirliği ve kültürel mübadele dinamikleri pek çok örnekte farklı ulusal çıkar tanımlarına dayanan jeopolitik rekabetin gölgesinde kalmıştır. İki ülkenin de Batılı ülkelerin politikalarından duyduğu rahatsızlık, çatışan bölgesel çıkarlara ve jeopolitik rekabete rağmen iki ülke arasındaki güçlenen askeri/ siyasi işbirliğinin ana nedenlerinden biri olarak görülmektedir. Makalede, nihai olarak, farklı araştırma geleneklerinin Türkiye-Rusya ilişkilerini açıklamak için öne çıkardığı nedensel mekanizmaları seçici ve çoklu olarak birleştiren analitik açıdan eklektik bir yaklaşımın gereğine vurgu yapılmaktadır. Anahtar Kelimeler: Türkiye, Rusya, Türkiye-Rusya İlişkileri, Ekonomik İşbirliği, Askeri Rekabet ULUSLARARASIiLiŞKiLER, Cilt 16, Sayı 63, 2019, s. 69-86 ULUSLARARASIİLİŞKİLER / INTERNATIONALRELATIONS Introduction Economic and political relations between Turkey and Russia have deepened since the early 1990s. The number of Russian tourists visiting Turkey has increased significantly, reaching four million by 2014. By 2015, Russia’s share of Turkey’s natural gas imports was around 55%.1 During the 2000s, bilateral trade between Turkey and Russia also increased significantly, from $4.5 billion in 2000 to $33.5 billion in 2012.2 The establishment of the High-Level Cooperation Council in 2010 institutionalized the two countries’ expanding economic and cultural ties. The cooperation that shaped Turkey-Russia relations during the 2000s suffered a notable setback on 24 November 2015, when Turkey downed a Russian warplane on the Syrian border – becoming the first NATO member state to do so since the Korean War. For eight months, from November 2015 to July 2016, the two countries experienced extremely strained political and economic relations – one of their worst crises in bilateral relations since the 1950s. However, just one year later, a rapid and unexpected normalization occured, gaining momentum after the failed 15 July 2016 coup attempt in Turkey. Russia and Turkey once again declared themselves to be essential partners in both foreign political and economic relations. How can we understand this tumultuous history and the sudden shifts in Turkish-Russian relations? What explains these fluctuations between conflict and cooperation? This article reviews evolving political and economic relations, including military and energy cooperation between the two countries. It then discusses the socio-cultural aspects of bilateral relations, showing how conflicting geopolitical interests have overshadowed the economic cooperation and cultural exchange that had marked the previous two decades. The expansive analytical literature that has emerged on TurkishRussian relations in recent years has sought to analyze these trends in conflict and cooperation. In what follows, I will proceed to an analysis of different conceptual approaches to Turkish-Russian relations. By reviewing some of the most prominent works on the topic, this article emphasizes the necessity of a multi-causal and analytically eclectic approach to account for diverging relations between the two states. Conceptual Approaches to Turkish-Russian Relations The current literature on foreign policy analysis in general, and on Turkish-Russian relations in particular, are divided – not always neatly – among the competing research traditions in the field, each of which draws on quite distinct theoretical postulates to present an account of the vagaries of international politics. Neorealist theories, for example, emphasize the primacy of power and interests in international relations, mostly focusing on changes i (...truncated)