Features of Armed Conflict Resolution in Asia and Africa from the Late 2010s through the Early 2020s

ISSN 1019-3316, Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 2022, Vol. 92, No. 6, pp. 713–721. © Pleiades Publishing, Ltd., 2022. Russian Text © The Author(s), 2022, published in Vestnik Rossiiskoi Akademii Nauk, 2022, Vol. 92, No. 12, pp. 1157–1166. Abroad Features of Armed Conflict Resolution in Asia and Africa from the Late 2010s through the Early 2020s V. S. Mirzekhanova,b,* and F. O. Trunovb,**,# aInstitute of World History (IWH), Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia bInstitute of Scientific Information on Social Sciences (INION), Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia *e-mail: **e-mail: Received April 20, 2022; revised June 13, 2022; accepted June 13, 2022 Abstract—Against the backdrop of the development of the modern cold wars, the problem of resolving regional armed conflicts remains highly topical. The authors of this article aim to identify patterns in the development of outbreaks of organized violence and counteracting them in modern conditions using the example of the situation in northern Africa and the Middle East. Methodologically, this publication is an attempt to update a number of theoretical provisions of conflictology with account for newly emerging realities. Particular attention is paid to the trend of nationalizing conflict resolution, that is, its management by the authorities and security forces of the country of origin of the conflict. This process, with the identification of common and distinctive patterns, is analyzed by the example of the situation in Syria, Iraq, Libya, Mali, and Afghanistan. The question is raised about the practical relationship between the development of armed conflicts and confrontations with the participation of the Euro–Atlantic community and Russia and the United States, a group of its partner states, and China. Conclusions are formulated about possible ways to overcome outbreaks of organized violence, including with the participation of external forces, in the realities of the newly emerging world order. Keywords: nationalization, peacekeeping, peace support, international terrorism, stability DOI: 10.1134/S101933162206003X Among the factors in the formation of the future world order are modern cold wars, one of which is developing between the Euro–Atlantic community and Russia and the other between the United States, a group of its partner states, and China. Bearing in mind the indisputable significance of each of these confrontations, one nevertheless can hardly state that they alone limit the set of elements constituting the world order. They should also include persistent pockets of instability, that is, areas where outbreaks of organized violence continue. A significant number of them are located in the northern part of Africa and in the Middle East—at a fairly significant distance from the lines of separation of the parties to the new Cold War. The growing tension between the major powers and their associations renews the significance of classic security and defense challenges that contain a military component (in one form or another). However, this does not mean the disappearance of numerous non# Velikhan Salmankhanovich Mirzekhanov, Dr. Sci. (Hist.), is a Professor and Deputy Director of IWH, RAS, and Head of the Sector of Asia and Africa at INION, RAS. Filipp Olegovich Trunov, Cand. Sci. (Polit.), is a Leading Researcher at INION, RAS. classical threats projected from the zones of instability towards a very wide range of international players, including those whose development is recognized as very stable and prosperous. This group of risks can contain both the military component (terrorist attacks, insurrectionary actions, and regular military operations of illegal military formations) and nonmilitary ones (mass uncontrolled movement of refugees, smuggling of raw materials or antiques), and their sources are often nonstate actors—primarily structures of international terrorism [1]. In the early 2020s, the position of these tension makers, in comparison with the mid-2010s—the time of the culmination of the successes of the “Islamic State” (banned in our country) in the Syrian−Iraqi direction—was rather ambiguous. On the one hand, from the point of view of quantitative indicators (the number of militants, the area of controlled territories), radical illegal military formations are generally far from what they had at their disposal seven to eight years ago. On the other hand, there is a very dangerous tendency to restore their potential. The fourth generation of international terrorism groups, the key example of which was the Islamic State, has sought and will continue to seek not only the creation of “gray” zones 713 714 MIRZEKHANOV, TRUNOV on the political map of the world but also alternative projects for building institutions of power [2]. Radical illegal military formations were more than once defeated, sometimes severely (the most successful was the activity of the triumvirate of the Russian Federation−the government of the Syrian Arab Republic−the Islamic Republic of Iran in the Syrian direction from the fall of 2015; at that time, the activities of the Second Western Antiterrorist Coalition were much less effective) [3, pp. 146−149]. However, the task of their complete defeat in practice remains unresolved. As a result, a priori, a potential window of opportunity remains for the restoration of potential, regrouping, and the subsequent activation of militant forces. This is facilitated by the entry of structures of international terrorism into symbiotic relationships with the forces of organized crime, which facilitates the shadow traffic of various goods [4, pp. 5, 6]. There are the first signs of a potential merging of illegal military formations with corrupt elements of the state power system, especially in the context of socioeconomic difficulties caused by the COVID-19 pandemic [5]. In the case of full-scale development, this trend will mean the emergence of a new, fifth, generation of terrorist groups [3] as a powerful obstacle to the formation of a balanced world order. We set the task of identifying the characteristic features of armed conflicts and the possibilities for their cessation in Asia and Africa in relation to the turn of the 2010s−2020s. Particular attention is paid to the influence of the cold war factor on the processes under study. Conflicts in Mali, Libya, Syria (in connection with the situation in Iraq), and Afghanistan were chosen as real cases for analysis since regarding them, in order to manage the situation, special efforts are made by external players, primarily member states and institutions of the Euro–Atlantic community. Methodologically, this study is aimed at clarifying some of the current features of conflict management and resolution [6, 7] with account for current trends in the development of the world political landscape. NATIONALIZATION OF THE RESOLUTION PROCESS: A NEW “OLD” PHENOMENON? In the early 2020s, in a number of directions, prim (...truncated)