The French Elections of 2022: Features, Results, and Consequences

ISSN 1019-3316, Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 2022, Vol. 92, Suppl. 14, pp. S1327–S1334. © Pleiades Publishing, Ltd., 2022. Russian Text © The Author(s), 2022, published in Nauchno-Analiticheskii Vestnik IE RAN, 2022, No. 6, pp. 135–146. The French Elections of 2022: Features, Results, and Consequences Y. I. Rubinskiy* (ORCID: 0000-0003-1343-9963) and S. M. Fedorov** (ORCID: 0000-0001-6735-9139)# Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia *e-mail: **e-mail: Received November 28, 2022; revised November 28, 2022; accepted November 28, 2022 Abstract—The results of the presidential and parliamentary elections in France in 2022, which took place in specific conditions caused by the increase in energy and socio-economic problems in the country against the background of military operations in Ukraine, are analyzed. Despite the re-election of President E. Macron for a second term, the loss of an absolute pro-government majority in the National Assembly (the lower house of the French Parliament) following the parliamentary elections significantly complicated the implementation of his election program. In particular, the inability, as before, constantly to use article 49-3 of the Constitution of the country to adopt laws, in fact contrary to the opinion of deputies, required the President and the government to start searching for compromises and possible allies, as well as to adjust the political course. However, the significant strengthening of nonsystemic political forces in the lower house of Parliament, both the far-left Unconquered France and, especially, the far-right National Rally, coupled with the reluctance of The Republicans to enter into a coalition with the presidential majority, complicates the plans of the Head of State. The prospects of further evolution of the country’s party–political system, as well as the preparation of the main political forces of the country for the next electoral cycle of 2027, are considered. Keywords: France, President E. Macron, presidential and parliamentary elections in 2022, political parties of France, the party–political system of France DOI: 10.1134/S1019331622200102 Due to the specifics of the political structure of the Fifth Republic, in which the president is endowed with special powers, including the right to dissolve early the lower house of parliament, the National Assembly, parliamentary elections in France, despite their importance, are traditionally still noticeably inferior in importance to the election of the head of state. This is also evidenced by the calendar of these important electoral events. Beginning in 2002, in order to avoid a repetition of so-called “cohabitation” (when the president and the prime minister represent different political forces), it was decided to synchronize both election campaigns; however, the first in time (end of April and beginning of May) was the election of the head of state, while the election of deputies took place in the first half of June. Despite the specifics noted above, one of the important features of the past election cycle was the fact that the results of the parliamentary elections, in terms of their consequences and their influence on the # Yuri Ilyich Rubinskiy, Dr. Sci. (Hist.), is a Professor and Head of the Center for French Studies in the Department of Country Studies, RAS Institute of Europe. Sergey Matveevich Fedorov, Cand. Sci. (Polit.), is a Leading Researcher in the Department of Social and Political Research of the same institute. political processes in the country, turned out to be more significant than the election of the head of state. THE PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN: SURPRISES NOT EXPECTED The re-election of Emmanuel Macron, according to all sociological polls conducted during the election campaign, did not cause much doubt. His rating during the presidential marathon fluctuated around 25%, which provided him with an automatic exit to the second round. The main intrigue, perhaps, was who would become his rival in the second stage of voting. At one time, it seemed that Marine Le Pen’s chances of reaching the final were not obvious against the backdrop of the unexpected popularity of the far-right Eric Zemmour and the consolidation of The Republicans, who managed to nominate the candidacy of the head of the Île-de-France region, Valerie Pecresse. According to one of the polls, conducted immediately after the representatives of the right–centrists entered the struggle for the Élysée Palace, she was even ahead of M. Le Pen, which promised an exit to the second round. However, the failed campaign of Pekress, which actually went wrong from her first big election S1327 S1328 RUBINSKIY, FEDOROV rally, naturally ended in a crushing defeat: she managed to enlist the support of only 4.6% of voters. Such a low result had never before occurred in the entire history of the neo-Gaullist party. Ephemeral was also the popularity of E. Zemmour, who received 7% of the vote; his electoral rating fell by half during the presidential race. The surprise of the presidential elections was not so much the very high percentage of votes that M. Le Pen received (41.45%), which was expected, but the unexpected success of Jean-Luc Mélenchon (21.95%), the leader of the far-left Unbowed France, who almost made it to the final round, only barely losing to the leader of the National Rally (NR) in the first round of elections. It should be noted that, against the background of the beginning of the “Special Military Operation” in Ukraine, the growing energy crisis spurred on by the introduction of unprecedented economic and financial sanctions against Russia, and sharp geopolitical changes, the past presidential campaign turned out to be indistinct and pale. It was this impression that the pre-election debates produced, to which the main contender for the highest public office joined already at the finish line; Macron delayed to the last moment his official statement about participation in the presidential race, referring to special employment due to the tense international situation. The initial ideas of Macron’s entourage to link his election campaign with the French presidency of the EU Council and the further promotion of the ideas of “strategic autonomy for Europe” also failed. It is impossible not to pay attention to another important aspect, the significant difference between the program of Macron in 2017, imbued with the enthusiasm of a young “start-up” politician ready for almost revolutionary transformations of the country, and President Macron’s program proposals of 2022, clearly “reformatted” by the tests of the preceding five years, marked by the most severe crises of the “yellow vests” and the COVID-19 pandemic, who realized the difficulties of modernizing France. An important feature of the presidential elections in 2022 was the high support of the French who came to the polls for “protest candidates.” Le Pen, Melenchon, and Zemmour togeth (...truncated)